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Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality

Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality. Daniel Horn research fellow IE-HAS and ELTEcon horn @ econ.core.hu. Motivation.

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Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality

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  1. Early Selection in HungaryA PossibleCause of High Educational Inequality Daniel Horn researchfellow IE-HAS and ELTEcon horn@econ.core.hu

  2. Motivation • Age of selectionis likelythebest proxy forcomprehensiveschooling(The laterthefirstage of selectionthelongerstudentswillstudyinheterogeneousgroups) • Comprehensiveschooling is saidto be decreasinginequality (Meghir and Palme 2005, Pekkarinen, Uusilato and Kerr 2007) • and trackingcorrelateswithhigherinequalityacrosscountries (e.g. Hanushek and Woessmann 2005, Pfeffer 2008, Horn 2009) • Why? • Teachersmatter (Hanushek, Rivkin and Kain 2005; McKinsey 2007) • Peersmatter (Sacerdote 2001, Hanushek et al 2003.) • … • Sothelongeronestudiesinselectedgroupsthelargerthedifferencewill be • The Hungariansystem is an „ideal” casefor testing earlyselection

  3. Inequality in the Hungarian education system is especially high The system of education is certainly not comprehensive Source: OECD PISA 2009 Vol. II, p 44.

  4. The Hungarian publiceducation system Early-selective tracks 8-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac

  5. Track type combinations within sites

  6. Questions • Are early-selective tracks status selective? • Do early-selective tracks have a higher value-added? If answers are affirmative the early selective tracks increase initial differences between students based on their status. Thus, the Hungarian system is more unequal (ceteris paribus) because of the early selection.

  7. Data • National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC) • Annuallycollectedsince 2006, PISA-likesurvey of all 6th, 8th and 10th gradestudents (seebelow) • Reading and mathematicalliteracy • Approximatemean: 1500, sd: 200 (before 2010: 500/100) • Crosscohort and crossyearcomparable. Mean 1500 and sd 100 is onlyfor 2008. 6th grade • Detailedbackgroundquestionnaires (generatedSocio-economic status (SES) index) • Individual panel since 2008

  8. The NABC cohorts * Individual identification numbers available

  9. Descriptivestatistics

  10. Number and percentage of students in different tracks6th to 8th grade panel

  11. Number and percentage of students in different tracks8th to 10th grade panel

  12. Average literacy scores

  13. Average SES

  14. 1st question Areearly-selectivetracks status selective?

  15. Problems Pr(track)=a+b*SES+c*Score+e • Test score point estimate for 8-yr-ac is endogenous Track->score->track choice • 6-yr-ac is unbiased • 6th grade score is a unaffected by 6-yr-ac track effect

  16. Logit estimateDV=6-yr-long academic tracks

  17. 2nd question Doearly-selectivetrackshave a highervalue-added?(6th to 8th grade)

  18. OLS estimateDV= literacyscore 2008/8th grade

  19. Problems • Endogenity – students start general tracks six years, and 8-yr-ac tracks two years earier than we measure them. Thus 6th grade test scores reflect the quality of the given track (6-yr-ac value-added is unbiased) • Instrumental variable estimation • instrument: distance from nearest 6-yr-ac and 8-yr-ac

  20. Instrumentalvariableestimation

  21. 2nd question Doearly-selectivetrackshave a highervalue-added?(8th to10th grade)

  22. Instrumental variable estimation

  23. Conclusion

  24. Conclusion • Earlyselectivetracksare status selective (6-yr-ac tested) • Earlyselectivetrackshave a highervalueadded – evenifbiasedestimatesarecontrolledfor • Between 6th and 8th gradeinreading, and • Between 8th adn 10th gradeinmath • Earlyselectionincreasesthegapbetweenstudents of differentsocialbackground

  25. Thank you for your attention! Commentswelcome! horn@econ.core.hu

  26. Spatialdistribution of earlyselectivetracks

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