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Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality

Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality. Daniel Horn research fellow Institute of Economics , Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Department of Economics , Eötvös University Budapest horn @ econ.core.hu. Motivation.

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Early Selection in Hungary A P ossible Cause of High Educational Inequality

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  1. Early Selection in HungaryA PossibleCause of High Educational Inequality Daniel Horn researchfellow Institute of Economics, HungarianAcademyofSciences and Department of Economics, Eötvös University Budapest horn@econ.core.hu

  2. Motivation • Age of selectionis likelythebest proxy forcomprehensiveschooling • The laterthefirstage of selectionthelongerstudentswillstudyinheterogeneousgroups • Comprehensiveschooling is saidto be decreasinginequality (Meghir and Palme 2005, Pekkarinen, Uusilato and Kerr 2007) • and trackingcorrelateswithhigherinequalityacrosscountries (e.g. Hanushek and Woessmann 2005, Pfeffer 2008, Horn 2009) • Why? • Teachersmatter (Hanushek, Rivkin and Kain 2005; McKinsey 2007) • Peersmatter (Sacerdote 2001, Hanushek et al 2003.) • … • Sothelongeronestudiesinselectedgroupsthelargerthedifferencewill be • The Hungariansystem is an „ideal” casefor testing earlyselection

  3. Inequality in the Hungarian education system is especially high The system of education is certainly not comprehensive Source: OECD PISA 2009 Vol. II, p 44.

  4. The Hungarian publiceducation system Early-selective tracks 8-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac

  5. Questions • Areearly-selectivetracks status selective? • Doearly-selectivetrackshave a highervalue-added? • Do longer, 8-year-long academic tracks further increase differences, as compared to the 6-year-long academic tracks? • Do others lose because of the early selection? Ifanswersareaffirmativetheearlyselectivetracksincreaseinitialdifferencesbetweenstudents of different status. Thus, theHungariansystem is more unequal (ceterisparibus) because of theearlyselection.

  6. Data • National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC) • Annuallycollectedsince 2006, PISA-likesurvey of all 6th, 8th and 10th gradestudents (seebelow) • Reading and mathematicalliteracy • Approximatemean: 1500, sd: 200 (before 2010: 500/100) • Crosscohort and crossyearcomparable. Mean 1500 and sd 200 is onlyfor 2008. 6th grade • I standardizethese, 0 mean 1 sd, foreachyear, cohort and subject • Detailedbackgroundquestionnaires • generatedSocio-economic status (SES) index – 0 mean 1 sd • Individual panel since 2008

  7. The NABC cohorts * Individual identification numbers available

  8. Descriptivestatistics

  9. Percentage of students in different tracks 3,0% 3,8% 3,9% 5,3% 4,8% 30,3% 96,2% 90,8% 40,2% 21,7%

  10. Average math test scores 1673 1782 1821 1756 1807 1675* 1693* 1704 1491 1615 1598* 1608 1450* 1452

  11. Average SES index 0,8 0,85 0,83 0,8 0,39 -0,059 -0,1 -0,81

  12. 1st question Areearly-selectivetracks status selective? YES! (Detailsinthepaper, Duetotimeconstraint – Sorry!)

  13. 2nd and 3rd question Doearly-selectivetrackshave a highervalue-added?Do longer, 8-year-long academic tracks further increase differences, as compared to the 6-year-long academic tracks?(6th to8th grade)

  14. The model • Model: where, i-individual, s – school (track), t – time Y – test score, X – studentcharactersitics – SES, Gender Z – schoolcharacteristics – tracktype, ed. provider (FE) • Endogenity problem – ifZst= Zs(t-1) • Thusifstudentsdonotchangetracksduringobservations, track has an effecton Y(t-1)aswell • students start generaltrackssixyears, and 8-yr-ac trackstwoyearsearierthanwemeasurethem. Thus 6th grade test scoresreflectthequality of thegiventrack • Note: 6-yr-ac value-added is unbiased

  15. Endogenity problem • Sollution: Instrumentalvariableestimation • instrument: distancefromhometonearest 6-yr-ac and 8-yr-ac • assumption: distance has an effectonthechanceto enter an early-selectivetrack, butitdoesnotaffect test scores • Problemwithinstrument: • correlateswithaverage SES • establishment of earlyselectivetrackswasdemanddriven • correlateswithaverageteacherquality • teachersarealsoselected; justasstudents • Easingtheproblem • Splitingthesampledecreasesthebias • 8-yr-ac vs. 6-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac vs. general • Trackeffectsin IV estimationareunderestimated: thestrongerthecorrelationbw. distance and teacherqualitythe more effecttheinstument „absorbs”.

  16. OLS

  17. IV – split sample

  18. Estimated differences bw. tracks, reference 6-yr-ac M: 0,228*** R: n.s. M: 0,17** R: n.s. M: -0,226** R: n.s. M: n.s. R: -0,545**

  19. 4th question Do others lose because of the early selection? Yes, inmath. Students in general schools, where early-selective tracks are available perform worse in math bw. 6th and 8th grade, compared to students in general schools with no early-selective track around.

  20. Conclusion

  21. Conclusion • Earlyselectivetracksare status selective (6-yr-ac tested) • Earlyselectivetrackshave a highervalueadded • between 6th and 8th gradeinreading • between 8th and 10th gradeinmath • 8-yr-ac performsbetterthan 6-yr-ac inmatheachyear • Studentsleftingeneraltrackslose Earlyselectionincreasesthegapbetweenstudents of differentsocialbackground

  22. Thank you for your attention! Commentswelcome! horn@econ.core.hu

  23. Track type combinations within sites

  24. Spatialdistribution of earlyselectivetracks

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