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INL MWWI Waters of the West Workshop Salt Lake City, UT July 19, 2011

Seasonal to Two Year Streamflow Prediction. INL MWWI Waters of the West Workshop Salt Lake City, UT July 19, 2011. Andy Wood Kevin Werner NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations.

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INL MWWI Waters of the West Workshop Salt Lake City, UT July 19, 2011

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  1. Seasonal to Two Year Streamflow Prediction INL MWWIWaters of the West WorkshopSalt Lake City, UTJuly 19, 2011 Andy Wood Kevin Werner NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  2. Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations • ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB) • water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts • plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season

  3. SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting Workshop NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011 Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board Reclamation NIDIS Academic Researchers Gillies & Wang, USU Troch, UA Piechota, UNLV Moradkani, PSU Rajagopalan, CSU Wolter, CU Streamflow Forecasting Research Development Operations CBRFC OHD Partners in Water Management Reclamation Colorado Basin Others: Becky Smith (student, CSU); Sponsors (CWCB) and Consultant (RTI) Outcomes: (1) future workshop; (2) forecasting testbed

  4. CFS Seasonal Forecast Skill - Precipitation

  5. Example of Experimental Ensembles Yampa River Below Craig, CO GFS and CFS based ensembles: experimental products updated daily at Colorado RFC (CBRFC) & California-Nevada RFC (CNRFC) flood GFS CFS www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/devel/hefs/ 5

  6. Linkage to Water/Energy Management • Average contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow: • Green River 34% • Colorado River 50% • San Juan River 13% In development… CFS-based flow forecasts for Reclamation water management Stakeholder Allocations Reclamation Midterm-Probabilistic Model Graphic from Dr. Katrina Grantz, Bureau of Reclamation 6 6

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