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John Kriendler Professor of NATO and European Security Issues

John Kriendler Professor of NATO and European Security Issues George C. Marshall European Center for Security Issues NATO Wide Executive Development Program 14 January 2013. NATO: Key Issues at Chicago and Beyond. Overview. Chicago Collective Defense Afghanistan Smart Defense

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John Kriendler Professor of NATO and European Security Issues

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  1. John Kriendler Professor of NATO and European Security Issues George C. Marshall European Center for Security Issues NATO Wide Executive Development Program 14 January 2013 NATO: Key Issues at Chicago and Beyond

  2. Overview • Chicago • Collective Defense • Afghanistan • Smart Defense • Partnership • Missile Defense • NATO-Russia • Nuclear Policy • Enlargement • US engagement • Conclusions “New Improved NATO”

  3. Chicago Summit

  4. Collective Defense ARTICLE 5 “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and . . . each of them . . will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. ” ?

  5. Operations KFOR Balkans Defense Reform Air Policing Support to EU Operation ALTHEA ACTIVE ENDEAVOR UNIFIED PROTECTOR NATO Training Mission - Iraq ISAF NATO Support to the African Union Ocean Shield CAUTION: CHART SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR NAVIGATION

  6. Afghanistan Flight from Kabul to Jalalabad, 17 Dec. 2011

  7. 2011 Defense budget as % of GDP Source: NATO DPP Division Caveat: As allies include different items in their defense budgets, these figures are not strictly comparable.

  8. Smart Defense • Consult • Prioritize • Cooperate • Deepen connections • Maintain strong defense industry, transatlantic cooperation • NATO Forces 2020 • Retain capabilities for core tasks • Modern, tightly connected, equipped, trained, exercised and commanded to operate together

  9. Partnership RUS NATO - EU (34) MRT JOR FIN AUT DZA EGY Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (28+4) SWE IRL Mediterranean Dialogue (28+7) MAR TUN BHR QAT CYP MLT ISR KWT ARE NATO - Russia (29) EAPC (50) AUT MLT FIN SWE BEL BGR CAN CZE DNK EST IRE BLR CHE MKD ARM BIH KAZ ALB HRV NATO - Ukraine (28+1) FRA UKR USA GEO UZB KGZ AZE NATO (28) NATO - Georgia (28+1) GBR DEU RUS MDA UKR GEO GRC TUR ESP HUN MNE SRB TJK TKM SVN ITA Global Partners NOR ICE NLD LUX POL PRT ROU SVK LVA LTU

  10. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) • Strategic Concept • Develop capability “to defend our populations and territories against ballistic missile attack as a core element of our collective defense.” • “actively seek cooperation on missile defense with Russia and other Euro-Atlantic partners.” • Chicago • Interim BMD capability • If threat reduced, adapt • Remain committed to cooperation with Russia

  11. NATO-Russia • Permanent Joint Council (PJC) 1997 • NATO-Russia Council (NRC) 2002 • Russo-Georgian War (2008) • Strategic Concept • Strategic importance/partnership • Enhance cooperation on missile defence, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, counter-piracy and promotion of wider international security. • Chicago • No Putin • “True strategic partnership” • Difference s and common interests The Russian cruiser “Moskva” (forefront) training with NATO ships in the Ionian Sea, 14 February 2006

  12. Nuclear Policy • NATO nuclear policy: main elements • Strategic nuclear forces • Sub-strategic nuclear weapons • Burden sharing • Debate • Global zero • US weapons in Europe: pros and cons • Russian “tactical” nuclear weapons • Declaratory policy • Implementing Chicago decisions B 61, three views

  13. Theater Nuclear Weapons (TNW) • Currently • 200 B61 gravity bombs • Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey • DCA: Tornados, F 16s • Planned upgrade • B61-12 precision guided gravity bombs delivered by F-35’s

  14. Enlargement ARTICLE 10: ...by unanimous agreement, may invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area ...

  15. U.S. and NATO Center for European Reform: “All Alone? What US retrenchment means for Europe and NATO”

  16. Conclusions • Progress • Issues continue to evolve. • Adaptability • NATO’s future "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change." Charles Robert Darwin (1809-82)

  17. Questions/Comments Smarter Defense Funding?

  18. Back Up slides

  19. Emerging Security Challenges • Piracy • Cyber • WMD proliferation • Terrorism • Energy • Environmental and resource constraints • Ballistic missile proliferation

  20. NATO, ISAF: Public Support • Public support • Publics do not perceive security threats • Strong support for NATO • Support to maintain defense budgets • ISAF: majorities want reduced troop levels or withdrawal

  21. NATO’s Future • “It depends” • Exogenous and endogenous • Security environment • Global economy • Global governance • Climate change • Operational success • Solidarity/Commitment • Defense spending • TA relations

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