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Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions) . Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2 nd No

Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions) . Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2 nd November 2012 . André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Head of Unit Energy & Resources Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN.

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Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions) . Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2 nd No

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  1. Outlook on Renewable Energy(and reducing GHG emissions).Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2nd November 2012 André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Head of Unit Energy & Resources Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

  2. Houston we have a problem! Peak oil Peak soil Peak water Peak biodiversity loss Peak population Peak GDP Climate Agriculture Energy Biodiversity Poverty & development And it is urgent!

  3. Global population projections(stabilization at about 9 billion in GEA) 18 18 GEA Industrialized 16 GEA Developing 14 16 12 10 Population (billion) 14 8 6 12 4 2 10 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 World population (billion) 8 6 4 2 0 2100 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 [GEA, 2012]

  4. Economic development projections(developing countries avg. 3.5%/yr; developed countries 1.2%/yr) 500 800 GEA Industrialized GEA Developing 400 700 300 GDP (trillion US$ 2005) 600 200 100 500 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 400 World GDP (trillion US$ 2005) 300 200 100 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 [GEA, 2012]

  5. Transport… Can result in 2 billion passenger cars in 2050 Tripling compared to 2000

  6. The current global energy systemis dominated by fossil fuels.

  7. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (IEA base scenario; 2030) [Source: IEA]

  8. More carbon in underground than the atmosphere (and oceans) can swallow.

  9. GHG emissions vs. global temperature…; little disagreement about the impact of a 6 oC change.. [IPCC-SRREN, 2012]

  10. Grenzen aan de groei…? [Meadows]

  11. Nervous markets…

  12. What to do? Do something Despair or …. Use your climate toolkit

  13. The BLUE Map Scenario – Towards a low-carbon energy sector BaselineScenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps 23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector

  14. Historical Development of Global Primary Energy Supply from RE (1971 – 2007). [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  15. Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median,Coloured box =25th-75th percentile,Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  16. Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  17. Costs available RE technologies vs. fossil energy costs. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  18. RE costs have declined in the past and further declinescan be expected in the future. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  19. ‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning Source: IEA, 2000

  20. Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology Source: EPRI

  21. Technical Advancements: growth in size of commercial wind turbines.

  22. CSP seen as driver for economic development…

  23. Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003). Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005

  24. Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from 1990-2002 Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005

  25. Estimated future costs of sugarcane and ethanol production assuming 8% annual growth Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane J.D. van den Wall Bake, M. Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot, A. da Silva Walter Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008

  26. And such opportunities can be found in most sectors… [Martin Weiss et al., 2010]

  27. Key factors biomass potentials Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science 2010

  28. 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels Past Literature Range ofTechnicalPotentials 0-1500 EJ 2050 GlobalEnergy AR4, 2007 Chapter 10Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets Technical PotentialBased on 2008Model and LiteratureAssessment 2008 Global Energy Total Chapter 2 PossibleDeployment Levels Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiberas Energy Content 440-600 ppm <440 ppm Land Use 3 and 5million km TechnicalPotential Percentile 300 Maximum 300 265 2011 IPCCReview* 2 2050 Global Biomass AR4,2007 190 75th median 2008 Global Biomass Energy 150 100 118 25th 80 25 20 Minimum 2050 Projections [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  29. Projected production costs estimated for selected developing technologies [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  30. IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050 Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels key to decarbonise heavy transport modes Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets Final energy (EJ)

  31. Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case Production costs shown as untaxed retail price

  32. Driving forces, dimensions, scales… [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  33. Source: Statoil

  34. Conceptual CO2 transport configurations Damen et al., 2008

  35. CO2 avoidance costs for electricity production (ref: identical technology without CCS). Damen et al., 2007

  36. An ultimate energ transition machine: flex-fuel IG/synfuel/power +CCS About 50% of carbon! Major investments in China. - No oil for transport! - 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission. [Meerman et al., RSER 2011 & 2012]

  37. What are we waiting for? Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project; (China) Shell gasifier arriving at site September 2006. 15 licences in China at present… Courtesy of Shell

  38. GHG emissions per km driven No CCS CCS [Van Vliet et al., 2009]

  39. Energy system transformation… [Vuuren et al., Current opinions in Env. Sust., 2012]

  40. Final remarks Business as Usual: likely given the current governance capabilities; it’s correctional force and collateral damage may be impressive. Global Governance; preferred and to be pursued; but will it deliver on time? Smart economics: economic superiority for sectors, countries, households…; connects to current system capabilities and psychology. Develop (niche) markets and market volume. Divert fossil fuel subsidies (budget neutral). Rock solid innovation strategies backed by macro-economic interests: THINK ASIA!!!.

  41. Niet lullen maar poetsen mensenen dank voor uw aandacht A.P.C.Faaij@uu.nl sciencedirect/scopus srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report

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