Turkish EU Accession. Short-term Threats vs. Long-term Opportunities

1. Turkish EU Accession.Short-term Threats vs. Long-term Opportunities Presented by: Emil Iliev Kiril Kostov Lyubomir Vankov

2. Background • 1987 – Turkey applied for accession to the EU • 1999 – Turkey became a candidate country • 2005 – Start of official negotiations for Turkish entry • Negotiations expected to take 10-15 years

3. Europe is far too short-sighted

4. GDP Per Capita • Lowest GDP Per Capita • Mass immigration into Europe • Flood of labor markets • Lower real wages in Europe

5. Demographics • 72.6 Million • Almost equal to 2004 Enlargement • 99% Muslim – will change religious balance within the EU from 3% to 20% Muslim

6. Unemployment • 10.2% Unemployment • Highest after Poland and Slovakia • Coupled with large population – will flood EU with poor labor

7. Geopolitics • Only 3% of Turkey is geographically in Europe • Does not include Ankara • Will extend EU border to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Georgia

8. YES to Turkish Accession

9. Turkey Reforms 1999 – National Programme for the Adoption of the EU Acquis • Abolition of death penalty • Expanded freedom of expression • Curtailment of power of military • Release of political prisoners • More freedom for the use and study of Kurdish • Looking for solution to Cyprus

10. Turkey is an important ally • NATO member since 1952 • Pro-Western and increasingly democratic • Full support for the “war on terror” • Contributed to military and peacekeeping actions on the Balkans and Afghanistan • EU should use its leverage to export its values to Turkey

11. The EU Needs Turkey • To increase its leverage as a normative power • To further its value-driven policies • To obtain a critical strategic partner

12. “ to modernize an Islamic country based on the shared values of Europe would almost be a DDay for Europe in the war against terror, [because it] would provide real proof that Islam and modernity, Islam and the rule of law . . . [and] this great cultural tradition and human rights are after all compatible” Joschka Fischer – German Foreign Minister until 2005 “the accession of Turkeywould be proof that Europe iscommitted notjust in word but in deed to a Europe of diverseraces, cultures, and religions all bound togetherby common rules and a sense of human solidarityand mutual respect.” Tony Blair – UK Prime Minister

13. Turkey as a Strategic Partner • Large Army – 400000 standing troops • Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and Caucasus-Caspian Region • Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian Region • Turkey Membership – more confident and expansive EU policy in the region • Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and foreign policy experience in dealing with the Middle East

14. Major Growth Market • Rapidly modernizing economy • 7 % growth > average EU growth • $17.1 billion FDI in 2006 • $86 billion exports • Less textile, more electronic exports

15. 46,3% 53,7% $87.1 BILLION $101.3 BILLION Turkish Foreign Trade Total $188.4 BILLION

16. Energy Crossroad • Crucial for EU future energy security • Positioned near all major oil & gas areas

17. Solution toEU demographic Crisis • Young, educated Turkish labor force • EU showing future deficit parallel to aging population • High future EU demand for Turkish workers

18. Other Economic Benefits • Already highly integrated economy shared Customs Union with EU • Potential logistics centre in trade between EU and the Caucasus,MiddleAsia and the Middle East • High consumption behavior

19. “Absorption Capacity” • If EU could take 10 new states at a single time, with overall population of 110 million, than Turkey with its 75 million should NOT be a problem as continuously stated. • Nothing about Size or Relative Wealth in the Copenhagen Criteria

20. Thank Youfor theAttention