Wales’ progress reducing emissions and preparing for climate change

1. Wales’ progress reducing emissions and preparing for climate change Peter Davies Chair of the Climate Change Commission

2. About the Commission • The Commission’s work facilitates the Welsh Government’s efforts to tackle climate change by providing advice, as well as scrutinising and reporting on progress. We also seek to mobilise action and build consensus across sectors. • Our main roles are to: • provide clear leadership on tackling both the causes and effects of climate change in Wales; • build agreement on the action needed in Wales to address climate change, and engage all sectors in this process; • work to remove barriers to delivering the climate change agenda and advise on solutions where appropriate; • advise on the development of Welsh Government policies and programmes; • monitor progress and report annually on delivery the Climate Change Strategy for Wales; • be proactive in sharing advice and good practice on climate change action.

3. Aim of presentation and overview • Brief recap of last year’s key messages from The UK Climate Change Commission (UKCCC) • Latest emission data • Progress and recommendations/key messages in selected sectors

4. CCC: Advisory letter assessing progress implementing measures in the strategy and advice on further actions required (mitigation and adaptation) October 2011: Wales has ambitious targets – more so than the UK . Targets are appropriate given long-term objectives and 3% target is a rational way of focusing on areas under Welsh control Good progress being made in developing policies but more scope for targeting greater reductions – in residential, business, agriculture and public sectors The ‘wider contributions of others’, which account for a third of the targeted reduction in 2020 are not well defined and more detail should be developed Adaptation: Good framework in place but priority to finalise sectoral adaptation plans and clarify arrangement for providing adaptation advice

5. Latest emission data

6. 2010 emissions ↑ 8% due to cold winter temperatures, and a return to growth in production sector 2010 emissions lower than in 1990 in all sectors except residential and transport = level UK emission trends in 2011 and contextual data for Wales suggest a fall in emissions in 2011 EU ETS emissions in Wales ↓8% Carbon intensity of UK grid ↓2011 Milder temperatures than 2010 Falling production sector output

7. Target for 40% reduction in all emissions by 2020 requires 3% average reduction each year → 2% over 2006 - 2010

8. Emission data for the full baseline period (2006-2010) now available → implies annual reduction of just under 1MtCO2e

9. Progress and recommendations/key messages in selected sectors

10. Residential sector – emissions and policies • Direct emissions ↑11% in 2010 – although temperature adjusted gas consumption data shows ongoing reduction • Overall direct emissions are 4% higher in 2010 compared to 2006 • Indirect emissions fell 15% over same time → reduced consumption & reduced grid intensity • Policy → a broadly positive story → Wales continuing to achieve high implementation rates of GB-wide policy (energy efficiency programmes, renewable heat and feed-in tariffs plus funding additional energy efficiency and fuel poverty programmes • However – fuel poverty remains a huge challenge • Absence of a housing condition survey makes it difficult to assess how much further policy required to go, or the energy efficiency levels of the overall housing stock

11. Transport – (20% emissions in 3% target) • Emissions increased in 2007 but have fallen each year since → reduced vehicle-kms and improvements in new car efficiency • New car efficiency ahead of 2011 indicative level – data on vans should be available from next year • Sales of electric vehicles low compared to share of new registrations in UK (1% vs 4%) – although this holds across all DAs (reflecting greater rural populations and lower population densities) 6.5 4.5 Transport demand – good range of policies in place but would require continued funding to roll out to urban population and close monitoring that expected abatement being achieved

12. Agriculture and land use (18% emissions in 3% target) Increased rates in recent years indicate some policy success → but still far below target level Scale of challenge → 3,000 ha annual planting been achieved in 3 years since 1971 Five year whole farm sustainable land management scheme (Glastir) now in place across Wales Agriculture Difficult to assess progress at this stage → although further to our recommendation on this last year, the Welsh Government has committed to consider how to assess impact of Glastir on GHGs

13. Waste (3% emissions in 3% target) Wales covered by EU landfill tax regulation → however, Welsh Government also has separate more ambitious policies, supported by legislation Statutory targets for LA recycling → 52% in 2012/13, rising to 64% by 2020 48% in the 12 months to March 2012 ALL local authorities in Wales provide separate food collections Strategy sets target for all municipal biodegradable waste to be diverted from landfill by 2020 (goes further than EU requirements)

14. Keymessages • The 2006-2010 baseline for the 3% target has now been confirmed – the first year of target data will be available later in 2013. • Emissions increased in Wales in 2010 but are likely to have fallen in 2011, due largely to weather and macroeconomic trends. • Underlying progress reducing emissions through the implementation of measures has been particularly good in the residential and waste sectors, where indicators show Wales ahead of the UK average on a number of measures. However, there are significant challenges ahead, in both these and other sectors, suggesting the need for policy strengthening. In particular: • The Welsh Government should set out its strategy for promoting the Green Deal and ensuring Wales continues to receive a commensurate share of funding for supplier programmes (i.e. The Green Deal and ECO)

15. Key messages (continued) • The Welsh Government should develop a renewable heat strategy to ensure that the uptake of GB-level incentives is maximised and to help overcome barriers to uptake • There are signs renewable development is falling behind the rest of the UK. The Welsh Government should explore ways to overcome barriers to achieving the considerable renewable resource it has identified • An assessment should be carried out on the emission reductions from transport behaviour measures , and whether these are likely to deliver the level envisaged in the strategy • A large part of the envisaged emissions reduction in the climate change strategy from the ‘wider contributions of others’ remains undefined. Greater clarity is required to provide confidence that these contributions will be delivered in practice.

16. Adaptation • Key recommendations last year: • Clarify position on future delivery of adaptation advice • Produce the four remaining sectoral adaptation plans (natural environment, infrastructure, communities, business & tourism) • Key messages this year: • The Welsh Government has produced well-developed and structured guidance as a basis to develop adaptation plans – but to date, the plans themselves are still not complete. The Welsh Government should ensure the remaining sectoral adaptation plans are produced over the coming year. • The Welsh Government should set out how it will ensure that businesses have a clear source of advice on adaptation – to complement current efforts to provide advice on adaptation to the public sector, in particular local authorities. • The Welsh Government and local authorities should ensure robust implementation of planning policy in relation to development in the floodplain and the design of urban areas. • The flood defence budget in Wales has been maintained in line with inflation in the current spending review period, making it better protected than in England, where spending is set to fall in real terms. Nonetheless, this level of investment is unlikely to keep pace with the increased flood risk from future climate change.