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Explore the factors influencing program effectiveness, such as treatment contrast, client characteristics, and program context. Understand how these variables impact outcomes and study sources of variation.
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A Framework for StudyingVariation in Program Effects June 14, 2015 Michael J. Weiss Based on: Weiss, M. J., Bloom, H. S., & Brock, T. (2014). A Conceptual Framework for Studying the Sources of Variation in Program Effects. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 33(3).
Outline Section I: Introduction Section II: Proximal Sources of Variation in Program Effects Section III: Connecting the Treatment Contrast to Program Implementation & Treatment Fidelity
Section 1 Introduction
Consequences of Effect Variation • Targeting services (types of clients / locations) • Equity / fairness • Best case / worst case scenarios • Generalizability / Scaling • Research design • What research questions to address? • Sample size • Etc.
Three Motivating Studies • After School Programs • certain types “work” (sequenced activities, active learning, limited # of goals, activities tied to goals) • Charter Schools • certain types “work” (clear behavior standards, zero-tolerance, coaching new teachers) • Welfare-To-Work • certain types “work” (counseling to get jobs quick, personalized attention) • context mattered (low unemployment rate larger effects)
Section 1: Introduction DEFINING A PROGRAM EFFECT for an individual
Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Neyman Program Effect On Neyman No Program Potential Outcome
Section 1: Introduction Estimating the average PROGRAM EFFECT for a Group of individuals
Estimating the AverageProgram Effect Randomize individuals (or groups) to: • Receive program offer • Not receive program offer Compare two group’s average future outcomes
Section 1: Introduction Defining Variation in Program Effects
Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Rubin Neyman Program Effect On Neyman Program Effect On Rubin No Program Potential Outcome Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program No Program Potential Outcome
The Framework Treatment Fidelity Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristicsand Context
Section 2 Proximal Sources of Variation in Program Effects
The Three C’s • Treatment Contrast • Client Characteristics • Program Context
Section 2: Proximal Sources of Variation in Program Effects 1. The Treatment Contrast
Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Neyman Neyman Program Effect On Neyman Contrast 2 Program Effect On Neyman Contrast 1 No Program Potential Outcome Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Alternate Program Potential Outcome
Treatment Contrast and Program Effect Treatment Fidelity Treatment Received Outcomes Take-up Treatment Planned Outcomes Outcomes Treatment Offered Treatment Received Treatment Received Mediators - Employment - Achievement - Recidivism - etc. - Employment - Achievement - Recidivism - etc. Program Model - Content - Quantity - Quality - Conveyance - Content - Quantity - Quality - Conveyance Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Received Outcomes Mediators Treatment Planned Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristicsand Context
Section 2: Proximal Sources of Variation in Program Effects 2. Client Characteristics
Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Low-Risk High-Risk Program Effect On Low-risk Type Program Effect On High-risk Type No Program Potential Outcome Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program No Program Potential Outcome
Client Characteristics as Moderators Treatment Fidelity Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristics and Context
Author’s Suggestions (Client Characteristics as Moderators) • Risk • E.g., pre-test, pre-RA income level • Readiness • E.g., acknowledgment of problem (substance abuse) • Program Theory • E.g., age (adult education that relies on technology)
Section 2: Proximal Sources of Variation in Program Effects 3. Program Context
Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program Neyman Neyman Program Effect On Neyman Context 1 Program Effect On Neyman Context 2 No Program Potential Outcome Potential Outcome Weight Loss Program No Program Potential Outcome
Context as a Moderator Treatment Fidelity Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristics and Context
Section 3 Connecting the Treatment Contrast to Program Implementation and Treatment Fidelity
Section 3: Connecting the Treatment Contrast to Program Implementation and Treatment Fidelity From Treatment Offered to Treatment Received: Client Take-up
Client Take-Up Treatment Fidelity Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristics and Context
Author’s Suggestions (Strategies to Increase Client Take-Up) • Incentives / Inducements • ASAP’s MetroCard tied to attending advising sessions • Requirements / Mandates • Opening Doors required student success course • Remove Barriers • H&R Block’s FAFSA simplification • 401(k) saving plans “opt-out” • Improved Outreach • High school to college transition, summer outreach
Section 3: Connecting the Treatment Contrast to Program Implementation and Treatment Fidelity From Treatment Planned to Treatment Offered: Program Implementation
Program Implementation Treatment Fidelity 1 Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process 2 Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up 3 Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristics and Context
Treatment Plan 1 Definition: Planned content, quantity, quality & conveyance of treatment services for clients • The plans for “what, how much, how, and by whom?” of treatment • Varies in specificity
Implementation Plan 2 Definition: Set of instructions for how the treatment plan is to be realized Worth Considering: • Staff recruitment and selection • Staff training • Staff monitoring and supports
Implementing Organization(Author’s Suggestions ) 3 • Strong Leadership • Resources / Capacity • Supportive Culture / Climate • Involvement of Outside Monitor or “Fixer”
Treatment Fidelity Treatment Fidelity Take-up Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Program Effect Treatment Contrast Treatment Fidelity Treatment Planned Treatment Received Outcomes Treatment Offered Program Model Implementation Plan Implementation Process Take-up Characteristics of Implementing Organization Client Characteristics and Context
A Framework for StudyingVariation in Program Effects Michael J. Weiss Howard S. Bloom Thomas Brock michael.weiss@mdrc.orghoward.bloom@mdrc.orgthomas.brock@ed.gov