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The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE

The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE. Max Reyal, deputy of the regional director of Meteo France for French West Indies and french Guyana Replacement of Jean-Michel Tanguy Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development Direction of Water

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The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE

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  1. The new flood forecasting and warning organization system inFRANCE Max Reyal, deputy of the regional director of Meteo France for French West Indies and french Guyana Replacement of Jean-Michel Tanguy Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development Direction of Water National Hydrometeorogical Flood Forecasting Service Director Meteo France: always in advance on time and weather

  2. 7000 km :8h French West Indies 2500 km almost 24h ..

  3. St-Martin St-Barthélémy Porto Rico U.S.A Bermudes Océan Atlantique Guadeloupe Grandes Antilles Iles du Cap Vert Martinique Mer des Caraïbes Petites Antilles Vénézuéla Barbade Guyane Trinidad Position Géographique des Antilles Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  4. Existing flood alert system The new national forecasting and vigilance system Perspectives….. Brief in the FWI Outline Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  5. France:550 000 km2 French territorial organization : 26 « Régions », 100 « Départements »(mean surface 5000 km2), about 37000 « Communes »(cities ) City mayors(elected officers) are in charge of public safety on their territories but small communes have few means The State, as a support for the mayors : Produces flood information Implements a flood alert system Alert the mayors who inform and provide the citizens with protection measures Provides civil defense(emergengy management) means French territorial organization Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  6. 52 Local Flood Alert Services (FAS) creation mid 19 century The FAS provide State authorities and the prefects (local representative of the Government) with flood advisory messages The prefects decide to declare alert and inform the mayors which take the civil security measures to inform and protect citizens again the forecasted flood Each Local produces bulletins with comparison of measured water levels with specific water level thresholds and tendencies of evolution Some difficulties at present time of the present system Insufficient take into account of the met contribution no sufficient human and financial resources To much local services No national harmonization (operational and managerial) Insufficient scientific and technical knowledge Flood alert system: former situation Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  7. Flood alert system: map of former FAS Various agencies DDE = Departmental Direction of the ministry of Equipment SN = Navigation Service DDAF = Departmental Direction of Agriculture and Forests DIREN = Regional Direction of the ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  8. 2 Flood alert system: new challenges Challenges • Necessity to forecast flood events in order for better anticipation • Better take into account the interactions of meteo and hydrologic aspects:the fallen rain and the rain which will fall • Necessity to rationalize existing resources and renovation of information process • Necessity to upgrade scientific and technical tools with the support of a national service Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  9. The meteorological vigilance map : qualification of level of different types of danger on the scale of departement for the next 24h. ( different in FWI ..) . Defined by Météo-France, published at minima twice a day and may be more in case of severe event Available to both authorities ,medias and the public, on the Internet Goes with follow-up meteorological bulletins as soon as the « orange » level is reached, including a forecast section broadcasted to emergency managers, media and public Qualification of the event( for example every 10 year .) Goes with standard « behavior recommendations » Accounts for severe precipitations and thunderstorms risks, which is of special interest for flood risk management Meteo alert system: Current situationThe Vigilance procedure Addition:heat-wave(after 2003) cold wave or spell

  10. No danger Be carefull ! Be prepared ! Be protected ! Stay safely enclosed ! Keep being careful 1-      One all year procedure for all the FWI , including 4 types of meteorological hazards and 4 levels of danger ( + 2 for cyclones ) showed with coulours ( NO COLD SPELL OR SNOW/ICE) 2-      One clear, digest and easy to memorise information towards everybody ( governement, emergency managers, medias, general public …) A type of hazard + a level of danger (colour) + a slogan

  11. SL11:Main goal : to give a clear message of what should be and should not be done to avoid wrong comportemental attitudes . For each hazard and each colour, appropriate individual and collective measures are given to the public. These collective measures ( closing of schools,stopping industrial or of airport activities ...) are choosen in real time among a predefined list by emergency managers depending on the expertise of this special threat ....because each case is a different case ...) - Special « follow-up » bulletins ·         Give more details about the hasard, the forecast, the danger , the impact, the probability , etc. These bulletins are issued as soon as one of the island is not in “green” ·         Issued with the same frequency than the chart ·         Free acess from the « vigilance page » on our website (single click on the island)

  12. Exemple de bulletin de suivi SERVICE REGIONAL DE MARTINIQUEVIGILANCE METEOROLOGIQUE en MARTINIQUEBulletin de suivi N°  3-1        du  29 à 06 h locales.COULEUR  : JAUNE            DANGER :  Houle inhabituelle en Caraïbe. Mer forte en Atlantique SOYEZ ATTENTIFS !Situation actuelleEn Caraïbe les creux moyens de la houle de Nord Ouest sont voisins de 1 m ce matin, avec des maximums proches de 1.50 m.En Atlantique les creux moyens de la houle de Nord dépassent 2.50 m.PrévisionsEn Caraïbe les creux devraient un peu augmenter aujourd'hui et la houle s'orienter au secteur Nord.En Atlantique les creux devraient s'amplifier notablement.Données chiffrées En Caraïbe : la hauteur moyenne devrait rester entre 1 m et 1.50 m.En Caraïbe : les creux pourraient atteindre 3 m à 3.50 m la nuit prochaineCommentaires / ConséquencesLe ressac inhabituel en Caraïbe peut constituer une gène :- pour les usagers de la mer lors des amarrages ( au sud de la baie de Fort de France).- certaines infrastructures routières peuvent être concernées.En Atlantique : la mer devient dangereuse pour les petites embarcations.RésuméRisque: fort Impact: faible(faible,modéré,fort,certain) (faible,modéré,important,majeur)Validité :Durée prévue de l'épisode: 48 h     Prochain bulletin :  à 17 h ce soir.

  13. LA VIGILANCE METEOROLOGIQUE AUX ANTILLES , it’s : 1- assesment of the danger 2- take appropriate measures Vigilance Météo ANTILLES Un type de danger Une couleur de vigilance Pas de vigilance particulière Soyez attentif. Danger imprécis ou effets limités + Préparez vous. Danger probables ou effets modérés Protégez vous. Danger très probables et effets importants Confinez vous. Danger imminent et effets majeurs Restez prudent. Danger écarté ou atténué Individual advises of beahaviour Collective measures + 13

  14. Impact Light or imprecise Moderate Deep Very deep (major) Probability low 1 1 1 2 2 Forte moderate to high 1 1 2 2 3 3 Very high 1 2 3 3 Certain …(imminent) 1 2 3 4 MétéoFrance choose the colour ( level of danger ) taking into account the hazard itself and the possible impact ( combination probability x vulnérability ) . A sensible decision weight is left to the forecaster in order to stick the best we can to the realitysame values can induce different colors

  15. SL15: Lead time of arrival of the danger

  16. Less than 48H hurricane watch 50W 1600km

  17. Grey vigilance color status

  18. Coming back to Europe Meteorological observation networks Radome : 554 stations (« turbo » mode: 6mn step, the station can call according threshold..) Rain gauge network : all data available for the SPC + 700 stations real time data Planting of 100 new rain gauges by Meteo-France in order to satisfy the needs of SPCs Hydro-meteorological radars improvement: 26 radars : mosaique

  19. Meteorological aspects Modelling tools Rain forecasting : numerical weather forecasting models ARPEGE and ALADIN outputs and soon in 2008 « Arome » model( non hydrostatic high resolution model 2 km resolution) Hydrometeorological tools: coupled models (observed weather conditions and forecasted flow with hydrological model) Safran-Isba-Modcou

  20. Creation of the National Hydrometeorological Flood Forecasting Service - Staff 30 FTEs (June 2nd 2003)(SCHAPI in french) Creation of 22 LocalFlood Forecasting Services in lieu of the 52 Flood Alert Services - Staff about 8 to 15 FTEs each Creation of a national flood vigilance system Goes with a national prevention plan (plan Bachelot) 2. Towards a national forecasting and warning system: key points

  21. 3. Towards a national forecasting and warning system Map of the 22 FFSs and the SCHAPI SCHAPI Toulouse Close to Météo France

  22. Flood forecasting organisation SL22 • New act « loi Risques n°2003-699 » related to prevention of natural and technological risks and reparation of damage a legal framework for the flood forecasting • A framework convention( MOU) between Meteo-France and the Water Directorate co-operation principles for flood forecasting improvement

  23. Hydrological aspects The flood vigilance procedure • To give early forecasting allowing local authorities, civil authorities to react on time • To largely inform the public, the media and give personal behaviour advices • To focus on really severe phenomena likely to entail a major crisis

  24. The flood vigilance procedureOnly for main rivers…

  25. The flood vigilance procedure • In case of orange or red vigilance : national and local information bulletins • Close contacts between SCHAPI and SPCs

  26. Hydrological aspects • Hydrological observation network • Limnimeters network being updated • A new data concentration process • ( data transmission: telephone, GSM, satellite) • Centralization by the SCHAPI and Meteo France and exchange of data Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  27. Hydrological aspects • Modelling tools • High disparity between the SPCs due to variety of river basins • Flow rate propagation models ; Rainfall-flow rate models • Conceptual models : in the process of operational use • Coupling between hydraulic and hydrological models • Deterministic models : off-line • Forecasting platform : SOPHIE

  28. Operational links between Meteo-France and SPCs and SCHAPI SL28 • Framework MOU or convention(Meteo-France / Water Directorate • Data exchanges • Weather forecasts provision from Meteo-France to SCHAPI • Expertised hydrological information from SCHAPI to Meteo-France • Close contacts between weather forecasters and hydrological forecasters

  29. Operational contacts during crisis National SCHAPI COGIC National Forecasting Centre Meteo France Defense zones Local Prefects CDM or CMIR SPC Météo-France Ministry of Interior MEDD

  30. National and technical support to the 22 FFS ( Meteo France host one the 22 SPC in the south east ..) 24 h / 24 mission on rapid catchments during severe events Edition of a national vigilance flood map The SCHAPI(central hydrometeorological support service for flood forecast)

  31. Public and Security Services Information

  32. Information during pre event andeventCommunication is crucial: the most accurate forecast is not usefull if it arrive too late to the people who need it .....ex in the FWI ..

  33. Transfer from Local Flood Alert Service to “pre” Local Flood Forecasting Services: dec.2004 to dec. 2005 (Flood alert on the territory of the future FFS) Transformation of the “pre” FFS to FFS: mi-2006 Publication of the flood warning map on Internet : july 2006 Implementation of the reorganization

  34. Lessons learned and prospects • A fruitfull co-operation: data acquisition rationalization, technical means harmonization( not so easy …) • A difficulty: different time working organisations • A new culture for the hydrologists: take account of outside-elaborated information

  35. Lessons learned and prospects Study for enforced co-operation on urban runoff and fast-reacting river basins( improvement have to be made ) One unified hydro-meteorological vigilance procedure?(not for tomorow ..call of JM ....) Meteo France has the certification iso9001 and must take into account needs of users.. • Last heavy rain episode of the end of 2005 in south of France.

  36. Network’s Internal Objectives To build a real network SCHAPI – Local FFS To give it the means of it’s ambitions To improve its technical and scientific effectiveness Public Service Objectives To give public security services and the general public the most relevant information with the most possible anticipation To disseminate risk culture Challenges and perspectives

  37. 1400m 1100m 55 km 1500m 45 km 75 km 90 km Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather Echelle Géographique et Relief

  38. Carte des bassins versants Main basin: only 100 Km2 Size oncentration time 2h to 4h . Some basins 1h .. Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather

  39. Courbe de niveau de la Rivière Lézarde Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather 3h

  40. MOYENS DE SURVEILLANCELes stations météorologiques • Constitution du réseau de stations automatiques : • Département : 28 équipements • Météo France : 8 équipements • Paramètres météorologiques mesurés : • Pluviométrie, Température, Rayonnement solaire et Vent. • Fréquence des données : • récupération possible de nouvelles données toutes les 30 mn, • connaissance des pluies par pas de 6 mn.

  41. MOYENS DE SURVEILLANCELes stations limnimétriques • Constitution du réseau de stations limnimétriques automatiques : • Département : 29 équipements • Paramètre mesuré : • Niveau des cours d’eau

  42. 50, 100, 200 km : Fréquence 5 mn, Elévation 0,5° 400km : Fréquence 15 mn, Elévation 0° Ecran type de suivi de l’information RADAR :

  43. Les plans d ‘urgence: emergency plans Conference CaribHycos, Fort de France, Décembre 2004

  44. Flood forecasting in France Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather Thank you for attention

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