Hand in first draft of thesis ________________________________________

1. Economic and Development Problems in South Africa and AfricaSession 9– Primary Education in Southern Africa& how to think…

2. Aims for today • Hand in first draft of thesis ________________________________________ • Comparing South Africa with 3 neighbouring countries – cross national comparisons • Understanding sample selection bias using education • Important for test / life / thought !! • !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3. 1) Comparing education quality in Southern Africa

4. RECAP - SA in regional context WCA LIM

5. RECAP - Viva Mzansi • Grade 6  13 years olds • Complete and utter disgrace – government failure on a national scale • Wholesale failure of the government to provide the most basic tool needed for mobility, or even dignified living. 40.2% 27.2%

6. Cross-national comparisons? • Are cross-national comparisons valid? • Inter-national heterogeneity? • Population? Spending? • Sample Selection? ? [1] 2006 data [2] 2005 data [3] 2004 data [4] 2007 data [5] 2007 data from (DBE, Macro Indicator Trends in Schooling: Summary report 2011 2011, 25) since it was not available in UNESCO (2010) • NER = The number of children of official primary school age (according to ISCED9726) who are enrolled in primary education • as a percentage of the total children of the official school age population

7.  Enrolments Spending 

8. Sample Selection (TEST) • What is a sample? • An entity that is representative of a class; a specimen. •  A set of elements drawn from and analyzed to estimate the characteristics of a population • What is the purpose of sampling? • Censuses are expensive • We still want to make inferences about a population (economics / politics / science • What Does Sample Selection Bias Mean?‘A type of bias caused by choosing non-random data for statistical analysis. The bias exists due to a flaw in the sample selection process, where a subset of the data is systematically excluded (or included) due to a particular attribute. The exclusion of the subset can influence the statistical significance of the test, or produce distorted results.’ • EXAMPLES? • Attrition bias / Survivor bias (stocks / child illness) • Voluntary bias (smoking survey) • Bowls is the most dangerous sport on earth • Survey – NIDS numeracy / LFP • Others? • Questions to ask: • “Is this representative of the population I’m interested in? • Is there any possible selection mechanism involved?

11. Enrolment & Survival?

12. Ability to correct / adjust? Assumptions?

13. Provincial heterogeneity?

14. Exercise • In groups of 3 • Think of 1 example of sample selection bias that you have personally encountered. • {it doesn’t have to be from an actual sample that was drawn} • Think of 2 examples of sample selection bias that we have not mentioned yet

15. Admin • Review due next week (questions?) • 3 main points + 1 observation/comment • ‘What we know about AIDS’ (Nattrass, 2010) • 1 page – max 500 words – don’t make me count! • First week of October – consultations about essay – I will post consultation times

16. Questions ???