Tetsuzo Yasunari Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University &

1. 2nd session ofGAME-II International Science Panel( ８th session of GAME International Science Panel )November 10-11, 2003at Hotel Sofitel Raja Orchid Khon Kaen, Thailand Tetsuzo Yasunari Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University & Frontier Research System for Global Change

2. GAME as part of GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel(GHP)

3. What is GEWEX? The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is initiated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to observe, understand and model the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes in the atmosphere, at land surface and in the earth surfaces. GEWEX is an integrated program of research, observations, and science activities,ultimately leading to the prediction of global and regional climate change. GEWEX is now in Phase-II (2001-2007?)

4. GEWEX is the core program in WCRP concerned with studying the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere and interactions with the Earth's surface. By virtue of this central role, GEWEX has links with all other WCRP programs, in particular, the Climate Variability and Predictablity (CLIVAR), the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC), the Climate and Cryosphere (CLIC). GEWEX also maintains a close link to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) through the International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) in coordinating many of the land-surface research activities.

5. The goal of the GEWEX is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime, its impact on atmospheric and surface dynamics, and variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment, such as the increase in greenhouse gases. GEWEX will provide an order of magnitude improvement in the ability to model global precipitation and evaporation, as well as accurate assessment of the sensitivity of atmospheric radiation and clouds to climate change.

6. GHP

7. GEWEX-II SCIENCE ISSUES • Are the Earth’s energy budget and water cycle changing? • Can these changes be predicted up to seasonal and interannual timeframes? • How do global energy and water cycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks and natural climate variability? • What is the impact of the variability in the global energy budget and water cycle on water resources?

8. Albedo change due to increase of cloud droplet concentration over oceasns No change of global precipitation?

9. Phase II Objectives • Produce consistent descriptions of the Earth's energy budget and water cycle and their variability and trends, and data sets for the validation of models. • Enhance the understanding of how the energy and water cycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks. • Develop improved parameterizations encapsulating these processes and feedbacks for atmospheric circulation models. • Interact with the wider WCRP community in determining the predictability of energy and water cycles. • Interact with the water resource and applications communities to ensure the usefulness of GEWEX results.

11. One of the primary elements of Phase II is Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP). The primary focus of CEOP is developing a 2-year data set of in-situ, satellite and model data for the period of 2003-2004 to support research objectives in climate prediction and monsoon system studies. CEOP has been endorsed as the first element of the new Integrated Global Water Cycle Observation Theme approved by the Integrated Global Observing System Partners (IGOS-P).

14. GHP SCIENCE ISSUES How do water and energy processes operate over different land areas? Sub-Issues include: • What is the relative influence of local and non-local controls on precipitation? • What feedback mechanisms affect the water cycle and how do these influence wet and dry periods?

15. GHP sub-projects · Water and Energy Balance Study(WEBS): to quantify and characterize the water and energy fluxes and reservoirs over the GHP continental-scale experiments as well as other regions.   · Water Resources Applications Project(WRAP): to structure the dialogue between the users of hydrometeorological information, forecasts, and the researchers in the development of datasets and models on a global basis. · Data Management Working Group: This group is concerned with improving the access to and distribution of various datasets. This group is also playing a major role in the preparations for CEOP.

16. Several critical activities are currently being carried out in a more ad-hoc manner. These include: · Large scale hydrological modelling:These studies are being carried out within the continental-scale experiments. ·  Transferability and validation: The transferability of regional models between regions and/or the validation of global models over continental-scale experimental regions and other regions is being addressed on a case by case basis.   ·  Prediction and Predictability:Prediction and predictability studies are underway within each of the continental-scale experiments. These are generally aimed at establishing our capabilities and weaknesses to predict water-related parameters over these regions on time scales ranging up to interannual. “Water Sources and recycling” and “Extreme Water-Cycle Events” is being pursued to various degrees. Other topics under consideration include carbon and orographic hydrometeorology.

17. Objectives of GAME • Understanding role of Asian monsoon and its hydrological cycle in the global climate system • Full energy/hydrological processes • Feedback processes in the hydrological processes • Up-scaling issues • Improvement of regional/basin scale hydrological cycle and water resources in monsoon Asia - Coupling of hydrologic models with GCM/RCM - Down-scaling issues

18. Decreasing trend of rain & moistureConvergence is noticeable over the western Pacific (JJA, 1979 to 1999) Trend in CMAP Rain(JJA) 1979-1999 Trend in NCEP2 Moisture Convergence (JJA) 1979-1999

19. Objectives of GAME- Phase II (Research Phase) • Intensive & Extensive Data Analysis • using GAME data sets. • 2. Comprehensive modeling of Asian monsoon • climate and hydrological cycles. • 3. Application of GAME outputs for prediction of • hydrological cycle (precip., runoff etc.) • in monsoon Asia • 3. Further international cooperation for • meteorological & hydrological studies in Asia

20. GAME-2 Working Groups Land surface processes/ABL/AAN (Joon Kim, M.Sugita) Radiation processes (T. Nakajima) Cloud/Precipitation processes (H.Uyeda) Monsoon system study (J. Chan, J. Matsumoto) Monsoon system modeling (F.Kimura) Re-analysis (N. Yamazaki) Satellite utilization (K.Nakamura, T. Koike) GAIN (K.Takahashi) WEBS (Dr. Sohn, K. Masuda) WRAP (T.Oki, Thada) GAME-Siberia(Georgiadi, T. Ohata)

21. Status of GAME Phase-II • GAME research phase is going on. • The 1st session of the GAME-2 International Science Panel (GISP) was held at NASDA/EORC, Tokyo in October 6-7, 2002. • Further data archive (meteorological data for 1996-2001) effort among the GAME-related countries is going on. • The international workshop for Regional Climate Modeling for the (Asian) monsoon system was held in March 2003 in Yokohama, Japan. • Continuous observation and monitoring effort is being made through CEOP-Asian Monsoon Project (CAMP) (including FORSGC, CREST-Water Cycle Projects.)

22. Items to be discussed • How to summarize the outcome of GAME-2 • How to coordinate hydro-meteorology community in Asia, relevant to predicting monsoon and/or water resources of each region, including data exchange and modeling & prediction activities. • How to design GAME-2 follow-up project or program as part of WCRP/GEWEX (GEWEX-II is still going on!) • GAME final study conference (in Kyoto?)