Food Challenges in the 21 st Century From the Plough to the Plate Production

1. Food Challenges in the 21st Century From the Plough to the Plate Production Sustainable Agriculture Environmental Protection Biodiversity and Agro-biodiversityAgricultural research and Technology Climate Change and Variability Domestic and International Access, Availability &Trade Consumption : Population, Diet, Income Food Security and Mal-nutrition Food Security and Obesity Mahendra Shah IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria GECAFS Food Systems Workshop London, 21-22 October 2004

2. Human Rights Food Water Education Health Care Social Security Clean/Safe Environment Freedom form Harassment Freedom from Discrimination Opportunities for Participation International Commitments in a World of Disparities

3. Hunger in a World of Plenty World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002 MDGs 2000

4. The Risks of Too Much Food EDUCATION

5. Millennium Development Goals : Targets to 2015 (long history of international political goals) POVERTY 1948( Universal Declaration-Human Rights); World Summits: 1972 Stockholm; 1990 Children; 1995 Social Development; 1996 Food; 2000 G8 Okinawa; Millennium Summit 2000 HUNGER World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002; Millennium Summit 2000 Education and Gender Equity 1974 UNESCO Convention; 1990 World Conference on education; 1994 UN IPCD; 1995 Social Development Summit; 1995 Beijing; 2000 World education Forum; Millennium Summit 2000 Health 1974 Bucharest; 1984 Mexico; 1992 Rio; 1994 Cairo; 1995 Copenhagen; 2000 Millennium Summit Environmental and Development 1972 Stockholm; 1992 Rio; WSSD 2002

6. Food Agriculture &Millennium Development Goals : 2015 50% Reduction in POVERTY (1a) Agriculture > 70% of poor in rural areas; Livelihoods/ employment on farm/ rural off farm 50% Reduction in HUNGER (1b) Agriculture > Food +90% of agriculture; Rural and urban hunger- access/affordability/safety Universal Primary Education (2); Eliminate Gender Disparity (3) Agriculture > Firewood collection and cooking; Focus on primary education 67% Reduction in child mortality (4) 75% Reduction in maternal mortality (5) Halt and reverse spread/incidence of HIV/AIDS/Malaria/Diseases (6) Agriculture > Rural and Urban Investments in Health Care Ensure Environmental sustainability (7) Agriculture > Largest user/ highest impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services; Biodiversity and Agro-biodiversity; Global Environmental Change poses greatest threat; Water scarcity; Fragile ecosystems – hill sides, semi-arid areas, watersheds, forests etc Develop a global partnership for development (8) Agriculture > ODA/ investments - agriculture research/extension/development;WTO Reforms The Food Agricultural Challenge : Differentially Vulnerable Populationsand Ecosystems Sustainability of Natural Resources; Agricultural Technology Relevance/Risks/Benefits/IPR Infrastructure and Marketing; Education and training; Nutrition and Diets

7. Human Population 2000

8. Regional Diversity and Demography, 1700 – 1990

9. Demographic Transition 2000-2050 Population 2000, 2050 regional distribution

10. Expanding Cropland 1700-1990 Fraction of grid cell in croplands

11. Intensive Mono Cropping

12. Intensive Meat and Fish Production

13. Agricultural : Vulnerability & Sustainability Sciences Political Vulnerability Disenfranchisement Societal Vulnerability Poverty, Hunger, Health, Population, Knowledge Environmental Vulnerability Resources, Degradation, Pollution, Climate Variability and Change Economic Vulnerability Farm and off-Farm Investments, Agricultural Research and Extension, Prices, Credit, Infrastructure, Livelihoods Technological Vulnerability Research and Extension Capacity, Agro-biodiversity, IPRs Internal and External Factors

14. What can science and research contribute to foster sustainable development? • How can the dynamic interactions between nature and society, including lags and inertia, be better incorporated in emerging models that integrate the Earth system, human development, and sustainability? INTEGRATED SYSTEMS VIEW • What determines the vulnerability or resilience of the nature-society system for particular places, ecosystems, and livelihoods? UNDERSTAND ROBUSTNESS / HETEROGENEITY • Can scientifically meaningful “limits” or “boundaries” be defined that would provide effective warning of conditions beyond which the nature-society systems incur a significantly increased risk of degradation?  UNDERSTAND NONLINEARITIES / INTERACTIONS

15. What can science and research contribute to foster sustainable development? • What systems of incentive structures – including markets, rules, norms and scientific information – can most effectively improve social capacity to guide human interventions toward more sustainable trajectories? ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES • How are long-term trends in environment and development, including consumption and population, reshaping nature-society interactions? INTEGRATED SCENARIOS • How can today’s operational systems for monitoring and reporting on environmental and social conditions be integrated or extended to provide more useful guidance to navigate a transition toward sustainability? INFORMATION INTEGRATION

16. Information Relevance and Utility • Earth-based Information • Ground Assessment, Household Surveys, Market Information • Science and research, Traditional Knowledge… ……………………………….. • Space-based Information • IGOS : Integrated Global Observing Strategy • GISD : Global Information for Sustainable Development • ………………………………. • Harmonizing Earth-based and Space-based Information • Integrated analytical tools : Scientific understanding and policy analysis • National Policy making and implementation • International negotiations and agreements • ……………………………………. • Developing Country Capacity Building • Achieving Sustainable Development : Reaching the Farmers and Consumers ……………………………………….

17. IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at Global Food and Agricultural System Global Environmental Change Global Economy Integrated Ecological-Economic : Science for Policy Actions

18. Agro-ecological Zones Methodology

19. Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical Data Layers 1. Monthly climatology 1960 – 1996; CRU at University of East Anglia; at 0.5 deg. latitude/longitude

20. Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical Data Layers 3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World; UN Food and Agriculture Organization; at 5 arc-min. latitude/longitude

21. Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical Data Layers 5. Global gridded population distribution data of 1995; CIESIN; at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude resolution.

22. Global Agro-ecological Zones Environmental resources databaseincluding climate, soil, terrain, and land covercomprising 2.2 million grid cells,assessing the agricultural potential of food and fiber crops, pastures, trees etcat three levels of farming technology.

23. BLS Model System18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional ModelsCommodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture.Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows National and Regional Models Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers) LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income) SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers) SOUTH ASIA (low income) SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income) Rest of the world

24. C O U N T R Y A E X C H A N G E P R O D U C T I O N E Q U I L I B R I U M N o n - a g r i c u l t u r e A g r i c u l t u r e p r o d u c t i o n p r o d u c t i o n P r i c e s , c o n s u m p t i o n , s t o c k s , n e t e x p o r t s t o s a t i s f y : P r o d u c t i o n i n p u t s : • B u d g e t c o n s t r a i n t • L a n d • F e r t i l i z e r • M a r k e t c l e a r a n c e • L a b o u r • O t h e r s • T r a d e b a l a n c e • C a p i t a l • T r a d e q u o t a G O V E R N M E N T P O L I C I E S T a r g e t p r i c e , t a r i f f s , t a x e s , q u o t a , e t c . I n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m o d i t y p r i c e s P N e t t r a d e E W A C O U N T R Y B P W W O R L D M A R K E T S E B I n t e r n a t i o n a l p r i c e s t o s a t i s f y : • c o m m o d i t y b a l a n c e s • f i n a n c i a l t r a n s f e r b a l a n c e E E E C D E P P P W W W C O U N T R Y C C O U N T R Y D C O U N T R Y E The International Linkage in the World Food System Model

25. Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems

26. IPCC SRES Scenarios Source: IPCC, 2001.

29. A1,B1 A2 B2 IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100 Population, Scenario A1, B1 GDP per caput Population, Scenario B2 Population, Scenario A2

30. 3.7 Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, reference climate 1961-90 3.8 Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s

31. Impact of Climate Change on Extents of Land with Constraints for Agriculture Hadley A1f, 2080s Note: This transition table shows changes due to climate change of extents of land with no, slight, moderate and severe constraints for agricultural use. The diagonal indicates land remaining within the broad classes. Values to the right of the diagonal indicate a worsening of agro-ecological conditions, values to the left of the diagonal an improvement.

32. OCEANIA EUROPE& RUSSIA NORTHAMERICA ASIA AFRICA LATINAMERICA Comparison of land with rain-fed crop production potential for current climate, for future climate projected by HadCM3-A1FI in 2080s, and land in use for cultivation in 1994-96 (million ha).

33. Cultivated Land projected for different IPCC economic development paths WORLD Source: Fischer et al., 2002 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

34. Changes in cereal-production potential versus increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming DEVELOPED, all land DEVELOPED, current cultivated land DEVELOPING, all land DEVELOPING, current cultivated land

35. India: Climate Change Yield Impact - 2050 Note: weighted yield impact for rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (% change).

36. India: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture – 2080 Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change.

37. Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1

38. Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1

39. Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1

40. Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivated Land 2080s ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1

41. Cereal Production, Net Imports of Developing Countries projected for different IPCC economic development paths PRODUCTION Source: Fischer et al., 2002 NET IMPORTS,CEREALS

42. Economic Impacts of Climate ChangeHadley A1F1 Scenario 2080 % Ag GDP % Cereal Production World -1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5 2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe -14.7 -3.4 Devloping -1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin america 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6 World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario) Cereals 19.5% All crops 10.5%

43. Number of People at Risk of Hungerprojected for different IPCC economic development paths AFRICA Source: Fischer et al., 2002 SOUTH, SOUTEAST and EAST ASIA

44. Food Insecurity in the World (FAO, 2000)

45. Food Security: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production, 2080s

46. Additional number of People at Risk of Hungerdue to Climate Changefor socioeconomic conditions of IPCC scenario A2 Additional number of undernourished resulting in BLS simulations plotted against different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate changes in 2080s, for projections of HadCM3 and CSIRO models Source: Fischer et al., 2002

47. Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges • Sustainability of Land Use Systems • Economy-Environment Relations • Efficiency vs. Equity • Millennium Development Goals • Spatially disaggregated modeling • Methodological foundations and applications for treating heterogeneity - Theoretical foundations of aggregation(over heterogeneous environments, actors, markets, commodities) - Downscaling methods • Cross-sector linkages: • - Urbanization; Infrastructure development • - Water supply and use • - Technological change • - Globalization and trade

48. Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges • GHG stabilization • Vulnerability, adaptation capacity • Framework for adaptation and mitigation • Climate change impacts • Adaptation needs and options • Land-based mitigation strategies - Biomass energy - Afforestation - Land use patterns and management • Climate variability and extreme events • Treatment of uncertainty