WHY TALK ABOUT BRAZIL?

1. WHY TALK ABOUT BRAZIL? • Like Mexico, it’s a good place to compare democratic consolidation internally because of its various regions… And it has strong federalism with uniform institutions • Until very recently, it looked like Brazil might finally become “the country of the future”: (1) It’s development model (BRIC), (2) newly discovered oil, (3) improved regional diplomacy, including the 2014 W Cup and 2016 Olympics, (4) the rise of a new, clean left winning four elections in a row; and (5) major success on poverty with the the bolsa familiar… And then, like the Brazilian Miracle, it all fell apart. • Brazil may be able to tell us something about the positive and negative legacies of soft authoritarianism and limited political competition for democracy (Like Mexico, civil society became democratic before mass electoral politics did) • Brazil may have some institutional design problems (multiparty pres./Open list PR), but seemingly lots of other things going for it. We can thus ask the question of how much institutions really matter for deepening democracy.

2. SOME IMPORTANT BASICS ABOUT BRAZIL • Some basic demographic information: • 210 million people in 2019, 5th in the world; birth rate of 1.7 per woman (was 3.0 = in 1990) • urban pop = 86%; (50% in 1964); White = around half, but patterns like the US in reverse • Life expectancy: female = 68, male = 75; 123rd in the world (3 less than US; before 1964, the gap was 15 years) • Literacy: 92%, Avg. years of schooling: 7.8 years (15.4 if everyone had what is normal for young people now) • Some basic economics • GDP $2 trillion in 2019 (3.3T PPP), 8th largest in the world • Per cap GNI (PPP) = $13.8K in 2017; 108th in the world. In 1990: $10.6K • Today, 4% of pop lives in absolute poverty. In 2000, a quarter of Brazilians did, making; it one of the most unequal countries in the world • Annual inflation Mostly 4-5% since 1994, but 9% in 2016. • Most of its economic growth is internal; its exports are external; it is an agricultural power house. • World leader in ethanol production; has recently discovered vast oil reserves • Drug trafficking—Cocaine to Europe—is a problem, but not like in Mexico or the Andean countries. Nevertheless, 2017 = 59K murders (US=15.5K); 2018= 51K,

3. BRAZIL TODAY: ECONOMIC GROWTH COMPARED TO THE BRIC

4. BRAZIL: 2015 forward economic crisis: Income per cap (nominal)

5. BRAZIL: EXTREME POVERTY COMPARED TO THE BRIC

6. Things are better in the big picture!

7. BRAZIL: SO BIG, SO UNEQUAL

8. BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT SIZE

9. WHAT KEY JUNCTURES MOST SHAPED PREDEMOCRATIC BRAZIL? • Monarchy (and slavery) from 1822-1889: It’s stability was atypical of the region for the most part… Even when independence came, its monarchy gently deposed by a military regime that quickly handed power over to elites. This pathway to independence is a key part of Brazil’s Grandezaideology (akin to “American exceptionalism): • A massive, unified state from the get-go • It replaced its mother state • Its culture and language make it different • It also has the self-made, immigrant-receiving story that is at the basis of US (and Canadian, Australian, etc) nationalism • State-based oligarchy (Minas, Rio Grande do Sul, and SP) (think Chinese “democracy”) in the First Republic (1889-1930): This is why federalism still matters in Brazil • Getulio Vargas’s populist Estado Novo (1930-1945): Populism + corporatism + caudilloism (ala Argentina’s Peron but with less backlash & division)

10. WHAT KEY JUNCTURES MOST SHAPED PREDEMOCRATIC BRAZIL? • The first shot at democratization with an open-list proportional representation electoral system (1945-1964): Due to a lack of meaningful parties, clientelism not parties organizes politics throughout Brazil’s first democracy. The most important leader in the period, Juscelino Kubitschek who ruled from 1955-1960, building Brasilia and perhaps dying by assassination in 1976. • After Kubitschek’s administration, the massive ISI- and borrowing-fed spending spree crashed. The political system was marked by chaos, fear the 1959 Cuban Revolution would spread, a left-leaning president who wanted to maintain relations with Cuba (Joao Goulart). Investment withdrew and inflation went triple-digit. • All of this led to a US-supported military coup (1964’s Operation Condor) • Bureaucratic authoritarian military rule (1964-1985): This was an economic “miracle” (for many) and soft repression for everyone else (e.g. unions & civil society were to stay, but students and political leaders went into exhile). • Bright spots: The military continued elections with the opposition Popular Democratic Movement party, leadership rotation, and made some good econ. Investments. The PMDB will become the first major party in Brazil, while the pro-military ARENA will balance it (Sort of like the PRI vs. the PAN, but with their ideologies flipped)

11. WHY DID BRAZIL FINALLY BECOME DEMOCRATIC? • The “abertura” and pacted democracy: Why did the military finally open things up in the early 1980s? Is top-down democratization good? • Direitas Ja! (1984) & the (fortunate?) death of the PMB’s Tancredo Neves allows the military to install the pro-military VP, Jose Sarney (1985): The glass cliff that new democracies typically inherit • Sarney’s (1985-89) & rampant inflation • Did Sarney really fail as bad as it seems? (G. Washington as a measure) • How did inflation help democracy (delegitimizing the extremes, keeping the military out, and keeping govt. focused)? • Brazil’s 1988 Constitution: • Who should participate in writing a post-author constitution, and what should its scope be? • What should the model be?... External or internal • How detailed should these kind of documents be? How should rights & liberties be specified? • How easy should it be to amend? (Brazil = 60% majority of both chambers of Congress, with two separate votes) • The impeachment of Fernando Collor de Mello (1992)

12. HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN BRAZIL? The multi-party presidential system: Is there a problem with presidents: It’s winner take all, so who wants him to succeed? Brazilian presidents govern by coalitions, distributing patronage, and cabinet seats; party-switching laws make it easy to join the coalition • Presidents have a four-year term, one-time reelection, single national district with run-offs if no majority • Very strong pres. power: Can initiate legislation and veto, but his legislative success requires congressional approval (vetoes overridden by a 60% majority of both houses… twice) • Strong, but accountable, provisional decree powers (Expire after 60 days, unless modified). Impoundment powers. A bi-cameral Congress: Strong, well-staffed committees with strong amendment powers Senate: 81 seats (3 for each state), eight-yearstaggered terms; elected using plurality (vs. majority), statewide elections, no runoffs. • House: 513 seats; four year, non-staggered terms; elected by state-level OLPR elections involving hundreds of candidates, pop = # of reps in a state. Brazilian courts • They are getting much stronger over time and enjoy increasing legitimacy, especially as they have started to jail corrupt politicians

13. HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN BRAZIL? Cont. Robust federalism: Why do large countries like Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil have this feature? • Brazil gives states and municipalities lots of resources • Brazil’s system imposes identical accounting, election, and party rules on sub-natl. govts. Is this a good thing? The main parties: The Workers’ Party (PT), the Brazilian Democratic Socialist Party (PSDB); the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) Brazil has around 23 other parties including some hard-core leftist parties… Not great for governance, but it is a good thing for political representation of minority views

14. HAS DEMOCRACY CONSOLIDATED IN BRAZIL? • Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s (1994-2002) legacy: The Plano Real helps democracy, but did his method of reelection create problems? • The rise of the Workers’ Party (PT) , Lula (2002-2010) and then Dilma (2010-1018)? Is pretty clean better than squeaky clean if you need to get things done? They appear to have chosen the latter • The health and vitality of subnational governments in Brazil: My own research • What elites/people say & do about democracy now…Why is it ok that people are frustrated? • Thinking about India, Brazil, and Mexico: Is there a reinforcing linkage between democracy and empowering poor people as equal citizens?

15. DOES BRAZIL HAVE BAD GOVERNMENT? DOES IT HAVE BAD DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS? • Is having government not work efficiently and in ways that are highly responsive all that bad? Much of what we read doesn’t talk about tradeoffs • What challenges make multi-party, bicameral, presidential systems so hard to govern? • What’s wrong with presidentialism (vs. parlimentarism)? • Is two houses better than one? • How many “veto” points is ideal? How much strength for the judiciary • What kind of voters are necessary to make democracy work well? What kind of leaders and politicians does OLPR lead to? (The voter’s dilemma) • How well have democratic governments in Brazil (and elsewhere) addressed poverty and severe inequality? Is this kind of “responsiveness” ideal or is it is clientelism/populism? • A model for the world of “conditional cash transfers?”Bolsa familia: 46 million people now served • How has rule under Lula’s government been different? Has a moderate, democracy-focused (vs. class warfare inclined) left helped democracy?

16. DOES BRAZIL HAVE BAD GOVERNMENT? DOES IT HAVE BAD POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS? Cont. • Why does democracy seem to be doing OK in Brazil over the long run despite arguably bad institutions? • Elites from across the political spectrum want the system to work • Tri-level federalism with block grant funding and participatory mechanisms • Sovereignty: The military won’t govern and the debt is well under control. • Economic growth makes people patient. Even though they say they don’t like the way democracy always work, they see it as the best alternative • A dense civil society in a large population with good protections of civil rights in most places • An external focus and strong nationalism: Brazil’s desire to be a major power has changed something