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CLIMNEG World Simulation model update (december 2002)

CLIMNEG World Simulation model update (december 2002). Johan Eyckmans Greta Coenen. CWS model release 1.0 had 6 regions (similar to the RICE model by Nordhaus and Yang 1996): USA Japan EU15 China Former Soviet Union ROW. 1. Extending number of regions. New version has 16 : Canada

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CLIMNEG World Simulation model update (december 2002)

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  1. CLIMNEG World Simulation model update(december 2002) Johan Eyckmans Greta Coenen

  2. CWS model release 1.0 had 6 regions (similar to the RICE model by Nordhaus and Yang 1996): USA Japan EU15 China Former Soviet Union ROW 1. Extending number of regions

  3. New version has 16: Canada USA Japan EU15 OEU (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) CEA (Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland,...) Former Soviet Union AUZ (Australia & New Zealand) MED (Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt,...) MEA (Bahrein, Iran, Irak, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,…) Africa (sub-Saharan Africa) China (China and Hong Kong) India RAS (rest of Asia) SAM (South & Central America) ROW ( 1.5% of world total for CO2) 1. Extending number of regions

  4. 1. Extending number of regions • To be done: • FSU, Former Soviet Union, includes bothannex B + non-annex B countries (“-stans”)eg. Russia + Ukraine CO2-emissions 1995: 81,24% of former USSR emissions FSU will be split in two: 80%(FSU) + 20%(ROW) • Coordinate with regional aggregation of JCM of Ben Matthews (UcL-ASTR) • Flexible aggregation routine • Detailed (per country) database socio-economic variables (World Bank)

  5. 2. Extending numberof pollutants • CH4 and N2O • Emission data for 1990, 1995, 2000: • Task of J. Roosen (UcL-ECRU) will be taken over by KULeuven-CES in 2003 • estimation of MAC functions: • Task of J. Roosen (UcL-ECRU) will be taken over by KULeuven-CES in 2003 • Similar procedure as for CO2MAC functions • functional form: MCi(ai) = B1i * (ai)B2i • estimation based on experiments with“GEM-E3 world” model by D. Van Regemorter (KULeuven-CES)

  6. 2. Extendingnumber of pollutants • CH4 and N2O inclimate module • JCM and CWS will not run simulataneously because of numerical implementation problems • Adaptation of the CWS model carbon cycle and climate module required • GWP“100 year greenhouse warming potential” from IPCC • GWP("CO2") = 1 • GWP("CH4") = 23 • GWP("N2O") = 296

  7. 3. Calibration to IPCC SRES scenario’s • New CWS model can accommodate for different IPCC-SRES (2000) scenarios (A1, A2T, B1, …) • Parameter of technological progress in production and emission/output ratios are calibrated such that BAU scenario of CWS model reproduces exactly the SRES scenario chosen by the user: • Fix GDPi,t and Ei,t from some SRES scenario • Compute i,t and Ai,t • Problems to be solved: • what after 2100? • Building own reference scenario?

  8. BAU emissions A1 scenario

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