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Achieving the MDGs: RBA Training Workshop Module 3: MDG Needs Assessment May 9-12, 2005. Presentation Objectives. Discuss the purpose of MDG needs assessment in support of MDG-based poverty reduction strategies; Outline an approach for carrying out an MDG needs assessment.
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Achieving the MDGs: RBA Training Workshop Module 3: MDG Needs Assessment May 9-12, 2005
Presentation Objectives • Discuss the purpose of MDG needs assessment in support of MDG-based poverty reduction strategies; • Outline an approach for carrying out an MDG needs assessment. • Address frequent questions about needs assessments www.unmillenniumproject.org
Agenda • Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy • Overview of costing methodologies • MDG needs assessment approach • Frequently asked questions www.unmillenniumproject.org
Motivation The Needs Assessment Exercise aims to flip the question: FROM: How close can we get to the MDGs under the current constraints? TO: What will it take to achieve the MDGs? www.unmillenniumproject.org
Approach to MDG-based poverty reduction strategies MDG Needs Assessmentthrough 2015 MDG-Based 10-year Framework MDG-Based PRS • Short-term 3-5 year strategy to launch 10-year strategy, including: • MTEF • Macro framework • Identify combination of scaled up inputs needed to meet MDGs • “What” & “How Much” • Identify combination of policies and programs to meet needs • “How To” www.unmillenniumproject.org
What is an MDG Needs Assessment? • Who andwhere are the poor? • Identifying the population in need • What needs to be done? • Needs Assessment from now until 2015 • Goods, services, infrastructure • How much will it cost and what are the human resource implications? • Local unit costs x population in need • Human resources required to meet each MDG www.unmillenniumproject.org
Objectives of an MDG Needs Assessment • Answer the question: “What would it take to achieve the MDGs?” • Translate the MDGs into operational targets • “Localize” the MDGs • Develop a strategy for increasing “absorptive capacity” • Strengthen coherence between planning and budget processes and guide programming of expenditures • Provide a monitoring and accountability framework • Support the national policy dialogue and negotiations with development partners www.unmillenniumproject.org
Agenda • Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy • Overview of costing methodologies • MDG needs assessment approach • Frequently Asked Questions www.unmillenniumproject.org
Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org
Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org
Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org
Agenda • Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy • Overview of costing methodologies • MDG needs assessment approach • Frequently Asked Questions www.unmillenniumproject.org
MDG needs assessment approach www.unmillenniumproject.org
1. Develop List of Interventions Interventions are defined as “investments in goods, services and infrastructure” as distinct from policies and institutions For example, interventions include: • Infrastructure (classrooms, roads, hospitals, toilets, water and electric connections) • Human resources (teachers, training staff and materials, administrative support) • Goods (books, medicines, improved stoves, computers) • Interventions to reduce barriers (subsidies for girls, microfinance, abolition of school and health care fees) www.unmillenniumproject.org
Develop List of Interventions:Suggested Investment Clusters • Rural development – increasing food output and rural incomes • Urban development – promoting jobs, upgrading slums, and developing alternatives to new slum formation • Health systems – ensuring universal access to essential health services • Education – ensuring universal primary education and expanded post-primary and higher education • Gender equality – investing to overcome pervasive gender bias • Environment – investing in improved resource management • Science, technology and innovation – building national capacities • Cross-national infrastructure – trade integration and government cooperation • Public sector management—strengthening the government’s ability to plan and implement the MDG strategy • DISCUSSION: • How do these clusters apply to your country? www.unmillenniumproject.org
2. Specify Targets for Each Intervention Coverage targets need to be specified for interventions. For example: • Reduce the proportion of food insecure subsistence farmers by half by 2015 • Primary completion rate to reach 100 percent, gross enrolment rate to reach 107 percent by 2015 • Electricity for all schools and health facilities by 2015 www.unmillenniumproject.org
3. Estimate Resource Needs Identify the Scope of Action Total Hunger Needs www.unmillenniumproject.org
3. Estimate Resource NeedsEstimate All Required Inputs Number of Infrastructure units needed Direct and indirect financial costs Number of people needed Capacity Requirements + + + Total Hunger Needs www.unmillenniumproject.org
Target coverage rates Country demographic data Costs per beneficiary 3. Estimate Resource NeedsEstimate the Total Cost Target Population TOTAL COSTS Cost components for key interventions www.unmillenniumproject.org
3. Estimate Resource Needs-Key Assumptions • Average unit costs used instead of marginal costs • Inclusion of capital and operating costs • Total costs instead of incremental costs • Financial cost analysis (as opposed to economic costs) • Different assumptions for scale-up of interventions from 2005-15 www.unmillenniumproject.org
4. Check Results:Synergies Across Interventions Interventions will have direct benefits and in some cases will positive externalities across sectors. These impacts should be accounted for in the needs assessment. Examples of direct benefits and synergies include: • Long-term sectoral synergies: Maternal education leads to higher enrolment of children • Immediate sectoral synergies: Prevention interventions in health have rapid impact on disease incidence rates • Cross-sectoral synergies: Provision of roads increases access to emergency obstetric care www.unmillenniumproject.org
4. Check Results www.unmillenniumproject.org
Key Drivers of Cost and Variation The key drivers of cost and variation in a comprehensive country-wide needs assessment are: • Health interventions to combat infectious diseases and strengthen health systems • Large-scale infrastructure interventions such as for roads and energy services www.unmillenniumproject.org
Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments • “Absorptive capacity” constraints are real in the short term, but can be gradually relaxed through investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems • Focus on interventions that require full or partial public financing • Include capital and operating costs for all sectors • Strive for maximum disaggregation • Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be modified depending on country contexts and specific needs www.unmillenniumproject.org
Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments • Undertaken in national planning contexts • Target setting, identification of interventions, unit costs done in consultative manner, reviewed by technical experts • Periodic revision of targets/interventions based on new information and implementation of programs • Methodology can be adapted to suit local contexts, provided basic MDG assumptions remain- no “one-size-fits-all” www.unmillenniumproject.org
Limitations Of Needs Assessments • Planning, not implementation tool • Input into planning process, not a plan in itself • A necessary, but not sufficient step for achieving the MDGs • Requires complementary efforts in policy formulation, institutional structures, local decision making and regular review and monitoring www.unmillenniumproject.org
Agenda • Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy • Overview of costing methodologies • MDG needs assessment approach • Frequently Asked Questions www.unmillenniumproject.org
Frequently Asked Questions • Why undertake an unconstrained needs assessment? • What to do in the case of limited absorptive capacity? • Dealing with Target 1 (income poverty) • Distinguishing between policies and interventions. • Synergies between interventions • Double-counting of interventions and cross-cutting issues • Macroeconomic issues (e.g. “Dutch disease”) www.unmillenniumproject.org
Next Step: Develop Financing Model • Long-term (10 year) financing framework: • Share of needs that can be borne by households • Share of needs that can be borne by domestic revenue mobilization (predicted to increase significantly over time) • Share of needs that can be borne by debt relief • Gap in resource needs that will need to be externally financed www.unmillenniumproject.org