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NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing. 1230 pm Thursday, May 15, 2014. Key Message. The possibility for significant river flooding remains for Fri/Sat/Sun. Most vulnerable area looks to be the Potomac basin.

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NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

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  1. NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 1230 pm Thursday, May 15, 2014

  2. Key Message • The possibility for significant river flooding remains for Fri/Sat/Sun. • Most vulnerable area looks to be the Potomacbasin. • Large area of rain on current radar, stretching from the Great Lakes to Florida, has progressed eastward and is entering the Potomac and James basins. • Even with rain on the radar, uncertainty in the amount, location and timing of forecasted rain still exists. • At this time, it’s important to stay aware of the threat and monitor your weather and river forecasts often.

  3. Observed Rainfall in the Past 48 hours

  4. Rain Forecast 3 – 4 inches 3 - 4” 3” 8am Thursday to 8am Friday 8am Friday to 8am Saturday 8am Saturday to 8am Sunday There will be a prolonged period of rain, lasting from today through Saturday morning. For the latest MARFC rain forecasts, go to: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Precipitation/Forecasts/

  5. River Forecasts • This shows the results of this morning’s 3 day river forecasts. • Most vulnerable area looks to be the middle and lower Potomac. • These forecasted floods are mostly driven by forecasted rather than observed rain. Hence, there is still uncertainty in the location, timing, and intensity of the rainfall. Latest river forecasts are at: http://water.weather.gov

  6. *Significant river flooding is possible in the shaded area (May 16-18). *Significant flooding is likely in central portion of the basin (May 16-17). A national version of this outlook can be found at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/

  7. Current Stream Conditions Some streamflows in our area are running above normal for this time of year. Our models account for this.

  8. MARFC Status • MARFC will be open 24 hours through tonight and river forecasts will be updated as significant observed rainfall occurs.

  9. Need more info? • Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office • Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm • Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk • Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi • State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp • New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx • Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx • Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq • Email MARFC at: seann.reed@noaa.gov

  10. Find MARFC Online at: • Website: http://weather.gov/marfc • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Twitter @NWSMARFC

  11. Next MARFC Briefing Friday Morning May 16

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