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(Finding) NEMoW II

(Finding) NEMoW II. A 2nd N ational E cosystem Mo deling W orkshop. NEMoW. Follows a successful NEMoW I A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models

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(Finding) NEMoW II

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  1. (Finding) NEMoW II A 2nd National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop

  2. NEMoW • Follows a successful NEMoW I • A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models • Swapping of best practices, tips, tricks, etc. among practitioners • Resulted in TM 87, a report on state of the art of EM within the agency • Continues to be responsive to a wide range of calls for EAM/EAF/etc. • NEMoWs analogous to NSAW and Nat’l Economists Meetings

  3. NEMoW II- A New Theme • "bridging the credibility gap" • or otherwise dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models (EM) • There is a clear recognition that uncertainty in EM needs to be addressed • There is also a clear recognition that doing so may need to be done using different methods given the different models • Many of these models are aiming for direction and accuracy, not point-precision – how do we use such outputs?

  4. When we say ecosystem models (EM), we mean: • Minimal realistic models (MRMs) • Includes ESAMs, MS models • Bulk biomass models • Includes aggregated versions of SS/MS & Food web models • Full system models • “Soup to nuts”, full system and biophysical approaches

  5. Proposed Terms of Reference • how to handle uncertainties in ecosystem models; • how to utilize strategic (as opposed to tactical) model output and advice; • development of ecosystem model review venues and protocols; • and a re-examination of the ecosystem modeling external review criteria developed in NEMoW I.

  6. Proposed Terms of Reference • how to handle uncertainties in ecosystem models • What are the sources of uncertainty? • How can they be identified? • How can they, or can they, be mitigated? • What are the one to two top unknowns in each Center’s EM activities? • How uncertain are some of the EM results compared to SS results?

  7. Proposed Terms of Reference • how to utilize strategic (as opposed to tactical) model output and advice • What models can produce precise BRPs and related outputs that are specific, precise and point estimates (tactical advice)? • What is the (expected and reasonable) variability about those estimates from different models classes? • What models can not produce precise BRPs, but rather accurate, directional (strategic) outputs? • What is the (expected and reasonable) variability about those estimates?

  8. Proposed Terms of Reference • development of ecosystem model review venues and protocols • What is the place for strategic advice? • What are case studies/examples where this would have helped?

  9. Proposed Terms of Reference • a re-examination of the ecosystem modeling external review criteria developed in NEMoW I • What are the key “checklists” that external reviewers need for reviewing EMs? • Are there appropriate standardized questions and model applications for the broad range of model classes? • How can we make these review criteria more widely available to reviewers? • How do these review criteria compare to other model (e.g. assessment) review contexts?

  10. NEMoW II Products • Workshop Report • Evaluation of How to Handle EM Model Uncertainty, with comments on best practices • Establishment of guidelines for EM model review process • Establishment of how/when to use differing levels of advice

  11. Workshop Format • 3 days: review, Center and topic specific each day • Daily Format • AM: presentations • PM: breakout groups • For NMFS Ecosystem modelers, by NMFS Ecosystem modelers • Limited # of non-NMFS experts and observers • Emphasis is on active participation and discussion, particularly in breakout groups

  12. Breakout Group Chairs • Group 1 Michael Schirripa Sarah Gaichas • Group 2 Kerim Aydin Chris Harvey • Group 3 Don Kobayashi Bill Overholtz • Group 4 Phil Levin John Field • Each person assigned to a group based on geography, expertise, etc. • Each group will meet 5 different times during workshop, addressing different TOR • Captured discussions, revisited in plenary, will form core of workshop report

  13. Thanks • Local Hosts • Peyton Robertson and NCBO/CBF/CRC • External Experts • Randall Peterman • Nick Bond • Andre Punt • Tom Miller • Other NOAA Observers • Mark Vincent NOS • Hendrik Tolman NWS • Charlie Stock OAR • NMFS Science Board

  14. Thanks • Nat’l Steering Cmte • Howard Townsend NCBO • Kerim Aydin AFSC • (Sarah Gaichas) • Kenric Osgood S&T • Michael Schirripa SEFSC • Don Kobayashi PIFSC • Phil Levin NWFSC • (Isaac Kaplan, Chris Harvey) • George Watters SWFSC • (John Field)

  15. Questions?

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