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Latin America: Argentina & Brazil. Past, Present & Future. Latin America. 10,000 Km = Nagoya to Paris. One Subcontinent. 562 million people 20 Countries U$ 3.3 trillion GDP Spanish, Portuguese, French languages Resource rich (oil, land, water, minerals)
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Latin America:Argentina & Brazil Past, Present & Future
Latin America 10,000 Km = Nagoya to Paris
One Subcontinent • 562 million people • 20 Countries • U$ 3.3 trillion GDP • Spanish, Portuguese, French languages • Resource rich (oil, land, water, minerals) • Under colonial rule from XVI to XIX century • Indians, Europeans, Africans, Asians (Chinese and Japanese) • Brazil & Peru: largest nikkei communities in the world
Differences • Colonial history • People • Culture • Political regimes • Economic structure • Soccer skills!
Latin America Today General Scenario • Democracy (more than 10-20 years) • Market economies (except socialism oriented Cuba & Venezuela) • (Post Import Substitution) trade openness Economy • Steady growth (4.55% in 2006, 4.23% in 2007) • Inflation under control (4.2% in 2006,but14.1% in 2007) • (Official) Unemployment still high (9.1% in 2004) • Exports (main partners: US, China, Europe) • Industrial components (e.g. Mexico, Brazil) • Commodities (e.g. Chile, Argentina)
Brazil Facts • Population: 189.3 million • Area: 8,514,877 km² (5th) • GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 9,700 • Federative Republic: 26 states, 1 FD • President: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (since 2003) Economic Facts • Interest rate: 12 % • Gini coefficient (UN): 0.57 • HDI: 0.800 • WB Doing Business Rank: 122nd(113 in 2007) • GDP growth: 4.3% in 2007 (4.1% in 2006)
Pending issues • Red Tape harnessing private sector • Politicization of regulatory agencies’ and state companies’ • Adequate Protection of the Environment Overcomeissues • Political / Macroeconomic predictability • Public Foreign Debt • Public Policy to Redistribute Income
Argentina Facts • Population: 39.4 million • Area: 2,766,890 km² (8th) • GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 13,307 • Federative Republic: 24 provinces • President: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner(since 2007) Economic Facts • Interest rate: 11.1 % • Gini coefficient (UN): 0.49 • HDI: 0.869 • WB Doing Business Rank: 109 (101 in 2007) • GDP growth: 9.1% in 2007 (8.2% in 2006)
Pending issues • Predictability and coherent policies • Inflation ghost • Growing inequality + growing insecurity • Corruption + Regulatory burden Overcomeissues • Political past • Debt restructuring (still some not paid debt) • Environment as political objective
Challenges • Stark income inequality • Heritages of protectionist, state-led industrialization • Poor quality, lacking infrastructure • Poor industry regulation • Rigid, heavily charged labor market