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Uncertainty and Risk should be concerned during whole process of service

Uncertainty and Risk should be concerned during whole process of service. XUE Jianjun Chairperson of ICT-SD xuejj@cma.gov.cn. So Important!. Influence induced by typhoon NESAT. Strong Wind in Guangxi. Strong Wind in Hainan. Surge and Wave in Guangdong. Heavy Rain in Hainan.

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Uncertainty and Risk should be concerned during whole process of service

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  1. Uncertainty and Riskshould be concerned during whole process of service XUE Jianjun Chairperson of ICT-SD xuejj@cma.gov.cn

  2. So Important!

  3. Influence induced by typhoon NESAT Strong Wind in Guangxi Strong Wind in Hainan Surge and Wave in Guangdong Heavy Rain in Hainan

  4. Sudden and extreme gale or rain cause huge losses A factory was destroyed by tornado induced from “Prapiroon” in 2006, 6 died More than 400 died near the landing area of “Saomai” in 2006 because of strong wind 66 died or missed because of landslide or debris flow caused by heavy rain(707.6 mm/24h)far away from the landing area of “Fanapi” in 2010

  5. With so many uncertainty, disaster risk is difficult to pre-assessed Other System (Monsoon cloud cluster, cold air) Typhoon (track, intensity, structure) Wind Storm surge Wave Rain Urban size Economic level Population density etc. Flood Debris flow DiasterRisk Waterlogging Landslide Risk management

  6. What should be done Forecast- oriented observation Service-oriented observation Service-oriented forecast Respond-oriented service Ensemble forecast possibility forecast Impact analysis respond measure suggestion Risk zonation Risk pre-assessment and pre-caution User-engaged service

  7. China Meteorological Administration and Ministry of Agriculture jointly carry out direct meteorological service for new agro-business entity. The meteorological and agricultural services jointly design service plan, define service details, produce and release service products. In Wangcheng, a county of Hunan Province, the direct meteorological services are provided for all the 593 agro-business entities. Via field survey, face-to face discussion, and other means, the users are engaged in the service design and improvement, the weather monitor and forecast information and suggestion are offered timely and effectively. For example, during all the key links of rice production, such as seeding，transplanting, pest controlling, harvesting，different kinds of information are issued, help the user to utilize favourable weather condition, and to avoid adverse weather as well.

  8. WORK PLAN 2013-2016 of ICT-SD

  9. Theme of the Sixth Technical Conference “Enhancements of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Disaster Risk Reduction and Aeronautical Meteorological Services to Support for Decision-Making” –proposed by MG-7 "Enhancements of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Disaster Risk Management”—my suggestion

  10. Suggestion to Draft SP 2016-2019 Sandy shouldn’t be chosen as a good sample of success, Tropical Cyclone Phailin is a good sample As in the last paragraph of Societal benefits of weather, climate, water and related environmental services(P13 of Draft SP 2016-2019) ，“It should be noted that a single tropical cyclone that affected parts of the USA on 27 August 1893 led to the loss of over 2,000 lives (3), which is very high compared to the lives lost in the same country due to Super Storm Sandy in October 2012.”

  11. With huge losses, Sandy shouldn’t be chosen as a good sample of success. As described in the Tropical Cyclone Report of Hurricane Sandy(AL182012) by National Hurricane Center, Sandy is the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. For Sandy, the forecast and early-warning was perfect, the action of government was powerful, but the disaster prevention ability, especially that of New York, was very deficient.

  12. Tropical Cyclone Phailin is a good sample. Based on information from media reports, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. The death toll from the cyclone is less than 50, which is extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999.

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