1 / 22

Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado

Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado.edu Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. and Environmental Science & Statistics Professor

macton
Download Presentation

Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado.edu Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. and Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports

  2. CO2 air concentrations over last 60 years, parts per million

  3. CO2 and Methane (CH4) concentrations: past 400,000 years

  4. Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere (IPCC)

  5. Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” SLR bullets: *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100 *9% of Florida lost with 1-meter sea level rise When might 1-meter (3’ 4”) SLR occur??

  6. The BIG Three *Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year *Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4thof SLR per year *Greenland& Antarctic Melt: ~1/5thof SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990sKey Study: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138

  7. SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow, Insidious** impact Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in. Year Best Estimate 2010 8” - measured; rapid rate 2030 1’ 1” 20501’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter 21003’ 4”≈ equal to 1 meter Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________ **eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now!

  8. Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100 *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100 About 1 million homes lost in Florida - NOT counting the 65% of Florida’s <1m-above-sea-level land set for development -- Insurance Industry Estimate Needed: a present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100 NYC Case Study:Super-storm Sandy

  9. Super-storm Sandy

  10. 1’ water depth due to human-caused SLR (as of 2012)

  11. New York City (NYC) Case Study Super-storm Sandy:US Climate Change Teaching Moment Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 11’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 meter - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’ 3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100

  12. Regional Sea Level Rise: 2091-2100 mean vs 1900, IPCC Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’

  13. Super-storm Sandy and Human-caused Climate Change 80-90% of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1900) is due to we humans Part of 5°F above mean ocean Temp in Sandy-birth-area due to us Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy! Impossible to say how much. Some Solutions after Break

  14. Solutions: Government Driven Renewable Energy:Govt. credits/subsidies needed - Renewables subsidy <50 B-$s/yr; coal, oil & gas subsidies >600 B-$s/yr Wind: cost less than coal; “30-coal-plant” Chinese farm Solar: rapid growth; Germany/European Union; China Geothermal/Hydro/Tidal/other; underutilized

  15. Solutions in Private Sector; Insurance-Background Insurance Industry: largest; 7% of Global Economy “Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades ~40% of total payout funds Munich Reinsurance: largest insurer of Insurance Co.s concluded- in 1973 - there is: “insurance risk from human-caused climate change” Those that must know, do know

  16. Climate Change activities, 52 countries; UC-Berkeley Study Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $95,000,000,000

  17. Solutions: Insurance Industry ($s since 1970s)* Climate Change Mitigation Investmt., 24 Billion $s Public Awareness & Public Policy Initiatives, 31 Billion $s Financing Client Loss Prevention, Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation Projects, 57 Billion $$s - e.g., forest restoration in catastrophe-prone areas Climate Science: IPCC/Insurer Modeling, 21 Billion $s __________ * The Greening of Insurance, Science Dec. 14 2012, 1424-1425

  18. Mangrove Reforestation, Japanese Insurance Co.: increased resilience to storm damages - carbon sequestration - company is carbon neutral since 2008

  19. Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000 - Toyota Prius: ~$28,000 - Chevy Volt: ~$27,000 Electric Cars* - Ford Focus E: ~$30,000 - Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000 *Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts

  20. Extra Slides: the following two slides may be useful background material for presenters and museum educators

More Related