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Welcome

Welcome. NOAA’s National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Weather Forecast Office State College. Cody Moser Hydrologist. Ted Rodgers Hydrometeorologist. Weather Forecast Offices 122 WFOs. River Forecast Centers 13 RFCs. Mid-Atlantic River Basins.

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Welcome

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Welcome NOAA’s National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Weather Forecast Office State College Cody Moser Hydrologist Ted Rodgers Hydrometeorologist

  2. Weather Forecast Offices 122 WFOs

  3. River Forecast Centers 13 RFCs

  4. Mid-Atlantic River Basins • Hydro Challenges: • Precip drives our rivers • Access to Gulf &Atlantic Moisture • Topographically enhanced precip • Coastal Storms • Lake effect • Mixed cool season precip • Ice jams • Snow melt • Flashy headwaters • Fast responding streams (6 – 12 hrs) • Densely populated – lead time critical • Towns established (as early as 1600s) along the rivers • Chesapeake Bay – coastal inundation, water quality • Recent repetitive major flooding • Political pressure to end flooding

  5. Forecast Responsibility • 7 days a week including holidays • 6am to 11pm • 24 hrsduring flooding • ~160 Daily Forecast Points • ~8 Flood-Only Forecast Points • ~300 Supplemental Points • 4 daytime shifts • 1 Hydrometeorologist • 3 Hydrologists • 1 evening shift • Flexibility in floods

  6. Mt Nittany Conference Room WFO State College Delaware, Passaic, Raritan Potomac, James, Rappahannock HAS Forecaster Susquehanna

  7. How the National Weather Service Forecasts River Stages

  8. Hydrologic Model InputData QC

  9. Precipitation over the past 24 Hours 1,467 Precipitation Gages

  10. Forecast Precipitation through next 72hours Basin average, 6 hourly resolution

  11. 12 NWS Weather RADARS

  12. MPE = Multisensor Precipitation Estimator Radar and Gages info combined

  13. Observed River Stages

  14. The Forecast Process

  15. River Basins

  16. 1st step in forecast process is determining the amount of runoff produced by precipitation in the basin.

  17. Rainfall - Runoff Model (API-Continuous) • Accounts for seasonal relationship of soil moisture conditions and surface moisture conditions • Computes incremental surface runoff based on surface and overall soil-moisture conditions • Computes what portion of the precip that does not become surface runoff enters groundwater storage. • Now that we know the runoff – we apply the unit hydrograph to compute the flow at the basin outlet.

  18. Unit Hydrograph Hydrograph resulting from 1 inch of runoff occurring uniformly over space and time. Shape is affected by the slope of the basin.

  19. Route the water down the river • K and Lag • Attenuation and timing • Determined through calibration • Can be variable with different flows

  20. River Model (CHPS)

  21. Flow gets converted to a stage

  22. The Hydrologist’s Role:Accounting for areas where the model assumptions are not met. • Precipitation does not occur uniformly over space and/or time • Adjust model parameters • Precipitation Amount • Runoff Rate • Rain/Snow • Snowmelt Rate

  23. Typical Day • 6-8am – Hydrometeorologist (HAS) Function • Past precipitation data collection (24 hours ending 7am) • Quality Control of RADAR, MPE, gage precip/temp data • Create 72-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) • 8am –Three Hydrologists Begin River Forecasting • Briefing from HAS • Quality control of streamgage data • Run river model • Make manual adjustments to model • Coordination with Weather Offices • Issue forecasts (around 10am) • Monitor and update forecasts as needed

  24. From the River Forecast Center to our Weather Forecast Offices

  25. AHPS

  26. Who uses our river forecasts? • Emergency Managers/Public • Flood awareness and safety • Fisheries Management • Wildlife • Fisherman • Agriculture • Reservoir Managers • Recreation • Flood control • Hydropower • Power generation

  27. What else do we do? • Flood Outlooks • Flood Climatology • Water Supply • Precipitation • Flash Flood Guidance • Expansion into Water Resources • Customer Advisory Board

  28. The Future in River Forecasting * Distributed Models* Soil Moisture Estimates & Forecasts* Estuary Water Level Forecasts

  29. Meteorological Model-based Ensemble Forecasting System (MMEFS)

  30. Want to learn more? • Free online learning modules http://www.meted.ucar

  31. http://weather.gov/marfcTheodore.Rodgers@noaa.govCody.Lee.Moser@noaa.govhttp://weather.gov/marfcTheodore.Rodgers@noaa.govCody.Lee.Moser@noaa.gov

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