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CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

Discussion on recent CRR auction results, upcoming long-term sequence, Sharyland load impact, planning model updates, SPS and RAPs treatment, NPRR 484, and CRR roadmap.

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CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

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  1. CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

  2. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  3. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  4. Summary of Recently Completed Auction September Monthly Summary • Credit Lock                                        = $170 million • Number of participatingCRRAH = 163 • Number of bid/offer transactions    = 143k • Number of cleared Transactions     = 15k • Net Revenue of Auction               = $6 million 2013 Monthly CRR Auction Results

  5. Current Inventory • Below is an update of the CRR inventory taking into consideration the September monthly auction

  6. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  7. Reminder of the Upcoming Long-term Auction Sequence • ERCOT staff is beginning to develop models for the first block of the next Long-term Auction sequence November December January February Sequence1 Jan-Jun 2014 60% Sequence2 Jul-Dec 2014 45% Credit Lock and Run Dates 10/28/13 – 11/15/13 Sequence3 Jan-Jun 2015 30% Credit Lock and Run Dates 11/18/13 – 12/6/13 Sequence4 Jul-Dec 2015 15% Credit Lock and Run Dates 1/6/14 – 1/24/14 Credit Lock and Run Dates 1/27/14 – 2/14/14

  8. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  9. Sharyland Load Impacts on CRR Model Source: http://www.su-power.com/docs/SU_ServiceMap.pdf

  10. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  11. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • ERCOT reviewed the Transmission Project Information Tracking (TPIT) reports to analyze the ~12 month ahead and 6 month ahead accuracy • The June 2012 TPIT was used for the ~12 month ahead • The December 2012 TPIT was used for the ~6 month ahead • Staff considered projects that were listed as “under construction” or “planned” with In-Service dates in April, May, or June of 2013 and focused on projects such as: • New transmission lines or transformers • New substations or buses • Major line upgrades • The real-time model and data was used to determine when the new or upgraded equipment was in service

  12. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Summary of the ~12 month ahead analysis • Of the 27 projects that were analyzed, 4 were early or on time • 19 were not energized or not in the real-time network model as of 8/12/13 • 3 out of the 3 projects with April In-Service dates • 11 out of the 14 projects with May In-Service dates • 5 out of the 10 projects with June In-Service dates • New TPIT In-Service dates for these projects were as late as June 2014 • For the remaining 8 projects: • 0 had an April In-Service date • 3 had a May In-Service date (1 was 84 days late, 1 was 7 days early, and 1 was 36 days early) • 5 had a June In-Service date (3 were 39 days late, 1 was 8 days early, and 1 was 12 days early)

  13. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Summary of the ~6 month ahead analysis • Of the 29 projects that were analyzed, 3 were early or on time (4 if you include a project that was within 2 days) • 16 were not energized or not in the real-time network model as of 8/22/13 • 3 out of the 4 projects with April In-Service dates • 5 out of the 9 projects with May In-Service dates • 8 out of the 16 projects with June In-Service dates • New TPIT In-Service dates for these projects were as late as December 2013 • For the remaining 13 projects, 3 were early or on time • 1 had an April In-Service date (85 days late) • 4 had a May In-Service date (1 was 98 days late, 1 was 23 days late, 1 was 7 days early, 1 was 36 days early) • 8 had a June In-Service date (1 was 72 days late, 1 was 53 days late, 3 were 39 days late, 1 was 27 days late, 1 was 2 days late, 1 was 12 days early)

  14. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  15. Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions • Treatment of SPSs and RAPs in multi-month auctions • For SPSs, the practice has been that they are included in all CRR auction models are only removed when the SPS is deactivated • This practice will be continued • As the discussed last month, ERCOT staff will be updating the “expiration date” nomenclature in the RAPs to “review date” • This is more in line with the annual review practice • Like SPSs, RAPs will be included in all CRR auction models until the time that the RAP is deactivated

  16. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  17. CRR Update on NPRR 484 Phase 1a CRR Code Received from Vendor: • Phase 1a code in CRR (integration with CMM) validated • Phase 1a code in CRR (credit pre-calculations) just commencing • Still on track for late October release in time for the Fall 2013 LTAS for CRR enhancements

  18. NPRR484/554 Project Update • First Market Call was July 31, 2013 • http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2013/07/20130731-NPRR484 • Market participant training for NPRR484/544 will be available on the following dates • ERCOT is requesting that all Market Participants attend one of the sessions CMWG August 2013

  19. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  20. CRR Roadmap Update 2013 2014 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Parking Deck: NPRR455 Shift Factors NPRR463 Potential improvements CRR API functionality PhaseShiftTxfrmr Optimization Improved Contingency definitions CRR Linux Upgrade stabilization/Decommission NPRR463 – 6 month/Rolling Auction • Oracle 11G Vendor testing • Nexant testing (Summer) • Oracle 11G ERCOT migration • ERCOT FAT/iTest/Prod NPRR484 Phase 1a- CRR/Credit (Oct) NPRR484 Phase 1b- CRR/Credit follow-on NPRR407 Phase 2- CRR Credit reporting SCR769 CRR Read-Only Report Access Increase above 200,000 bids: Early Lab test complete, ERCOT support of more scenarios Stress testing 300,000 bid limit on Linux for Q1 of 2014 (v13.1)

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