AM”I, Tel-Aviv, 22 March 2011

1. AM”I, Tel-Aviv, 22 March 2011 סימולציות אקלימיות של שינויים במאזן המים מעל אגן הים התיכון עם מבט לישראל – האם אנו מתייבשים? פינחס אלפרט ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב בשיתוף עם:ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה,מעין הראל

2. Overview • Factor Separation and synergy- New Book • Super High-Resolution MRI 20-km climate model- new results • High Resolution Climate Modeling over the Mediterranean • High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean • Conclusions

3. Published Feb. 2011 Cambridge Univ. Press

4. One comment on the importance of a proper Factor Separation; from the Book’s Introduction “There seems to be some basic psychological tendency in human thinking to present results linearly, with the hidden assumption that the synergies are small or can be ignored. Nonlinearities in the atmosphere, however, are often significant, and therefore need to be calculated and separated from the pure contributions of each factor, as shown in many very different applications presented in this Book.”

5. High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean • 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution) • Japanese MRI 20km • ECHAM- RegCM- 25 km • ECHAM- MM5- 18 km • HADLEY-MM5- 18 km • First, some results from the Super High-Resolution MRI 20-km climate model: A. Kitoh, A. Yatagai and P. Alpert, "First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will disappear in this century", Hydrolo. Res. Lett., 2, 1-4, DOI: 10.3178/HRL.2.1, 2008.

6. Annual Precipitation (mm/year) EMclim IPCC AR4 models CRU 20-km model

7. Total seasonal (Oct-Apr) average precipitation for 1979-2002

8. Comparison of average total observed seasonal P • The six stations are from south-to-north, Egypt---Cairo (Ca,); Israel---Beer-Sheva (Bs), Tel-Aviv (Ta), Haifa (Hf); Lebanon---Beirut (Be) and Turkey---Adana (Ad). Unit: mm/season.

9. Sketch map N-InF N-OutF E-InF West inflow E-OutF West outflow S-InF S-OutF Unit: mm/day P E

10. Water vapor budget equation Vertical integrated moisture flux (VIMF) VICLF CL=cloud Liquid dPW By neglect dPW, VICLF + Using Green’s Theorem Total boundary outflow and inflow Area

11. Difference of seasonal total E, P and P-E between the future (2075-2099) and current (1979-2002) 20 km GCM runs. Dashed contour lines indicate the negative changes, i.e. reduction in the future. Unit: mm/season

12. Annual P,E changes during 2075-2099 compared to current mean E P Annual anomaly of P(black bar) and E (shaded bar) for the future (2075-2099), separated by sea and land area over the Mediterranean region. Calculated by individual year of the future minus the current mean (1979-2007). Unit: mm/day.

13. Five precipitation categories based on monthly averages in (mm/d) over the whole Mediterranean- current & future

14. Relationships among the moisture budget components based on the 5 different precipitation categories ΔP Unit: mm/day Current (1979-2007) E S W E N S W N Future (2075-2099) minus current S W E N S N E W Tout-Tinf E-P P Tinf Tout E Inflow Outflow

15. Har-Knaan Tel-Aviv Beer-Sheva Comparison of monthly mean precipitation from observed rain gauge (black column) and 20km GCM (grey column) for selected six stations in Israel based on their locations. Unit: mm/day. The selected stations are: Northern Israel---(a) Har-Knaan, (b) Eilon; Center Israel---(c) Tel-Aviv, (d) Jerusalem; Southern Israel---(e) Beer-Sheva, (f) Elat.

16. 2081-2100changes in (m3/s) 20km present MRI SST MIROC SST Streamflow

17. Changes of monthly mean river discharge of six rivers by (1979-2003) compare to (2075-2099). Except to the Jordan River, all rivers flow into the Mediterranean (m3/s). Bold lines ( ) are for current climate, while dashed ( ) for the future.

18. Early RCM Transient Run A1B 1960-206050 km P. Alpert, S.O. Krichak, H. Shafir , D. Haim, and I. Osetinsky, "Climatic trends to extremes employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean", Global and Planetary Change, 63, 163-170, 2008.

19. -~30%

22. First High Resolution Climate Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean • 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution) • Japanese MRI 20km • ECHAM- RegCM- 25 km • ECHAM- MM5- 18 km • HADLEY-MM5- 18 km • SRES A1B scenario • Weighted ensemble based on Jensen-Shannon Divergence metric • The models with higher similarity to observations over a control period are given higher weights

23. Example: Kfar Giladi- Total Annual Rainfall in mm/y – Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99) OBS p mm/y Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods: 1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed), and 4 models.

24. Example: Kfar Giladi- Number of Wet Days per season Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99) p Number of Days Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods: 1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed)), and 4 models. Wet Days shown.

25. Example: Kfar Giladi- Number of 3 Day Wet Spells Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99) p Number of spells Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods: 1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed)), and 4 models. Wet Spells shown .

26. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Average Annual Amounts shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). p mm/yr

27. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Days shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). p Number of Days

28. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Spells shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). p Number of Spells

29. Durations (days) of hot/cool spells 1975-1948 2002-1976 Heat waves increase & longer Frequency of hot & cold spells in July-Aug in both halfs of 1948-2002 B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.

30. Distribution of 850 hPa daily temperaturesfor1948-1977 and 1973-2002 Shift in the mode temperatures Increase in extreme events

31. Changes in T-850 mb distributions over the E. Mediterranean • Most frequent value increases • Distribution widens • Increase in heat waves & their intensity B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.

32. Climatic Trends "Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003", X. Zhang, E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed, N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, T. H. Hantosh, P.Alpert, M. Semawi, M. K. Ali, M. H. S. Al-Shabibi, Z. Al-Oulan, T. Zatari, I. Al Dean Khelet, S. Hamoud, R. Sagir, M. Demircan, M. Eken, M. Adiguzel, L. Alexander, T. C. Peterson, and T. Wallis, "Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003",J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006181, 2005

34. TX90p Top 10 Percentiles Tmax/min TN90p Recent 20 y dramatic

35. TX90p Top 10 Percentiles Tmax/min TN90p Solid triangles 5% significance Turkey- recent & TN More significant

36. Annual Precipitation Anomalies Precipitation variation is characterized by strong interannual variability without any significant trend in any of the indices

37. Mediterranean Changes in P: 1980-2002 vs. 1931-79 Actual change in annual means (mm) Data from UEA TS2p1 t-test (95% confidence highlighted) Y. Kushnir 2009

38. Max 1 day Precipitation Amount Middle East- Mixed trends Unlike most Mediterranean Annual Total Precipitation Zhang et al JGR, 2005

39. Conclusions • Tendency to extreme in daily and seasonal rainfall- Desertification? • Tendency to extreme temperatures • Japanese run confirms how crucial are high-resolution climate runs • First High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean confirms the tendency to extreme along with less total rainfall

40. Thank you!

41. Conclusions • The 20km GCM data better represents the precipitation region over the Middle east region, an increasing evaporation with the magnitude of 150-200 mm/season at the water bodies of EM are projected; a significant decrease of precipitation was found over west Turkey, west Syria, entire Israel and Lebanon, with a magnitude of over 200 mm/wet seasonat the end of this century. The famous “Fertile Crescent” precipitation strip becomes much drier. • For the current climate, the E of the eastern Mediterranean sea (EMS) is higher than that of western Mediterranean sea (WMS) with a average value of 0.4 mm/day, but with the precipitation it is opposite, i.e. less than in the WMS with an average value of 0.32 mm/day. For the future, the evaporation increases for the EMS are higher than that of WMS, with the average value of 0.45 and 0.22 mm/day respectively; while the precipitation decreases for the WMS are higher than that of theEMS, with the average value of -0.21 and -0.16 mm/day.

42. The separated calculated boundary moisture flux balance the moisture budget equation quite well, the main source of moisture for the precipitation over the Mediterranean comes from the west and north boundaries. The evaporation acts a significant positive role to the precipitation of Mediterranean. • Even the numbers of precipitation events decrease in the future, however, the absolute value for the largest precipitation category shows a increasing trend. • The decrease of river flow, increase evaporation and decrease precipitation make the water crisis available over the study area at the end of this century.