Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov President, PIR Center

1. Security threats in the Middle East and Northern Africa: the problem of weapons of mass destruction proliferation Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov President, PIR Center MCIS Moscow, May 23, 2014

2. Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Middle East

3. “After more than 18 months, the WMD investigation and debriefing of the WMD-related detainees has been exhausted. As matters now stand, the WMD investigation has gone as far as feasible” – Charles Duelfer, head of the Iraq Survey Group (an addendum to the CIA’s final report, 2004).

5. Israeli nuclear program

6. Iranian nuclear program Source: International Crisis Group

7. PIR Center’s recommendations for the comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear issue Ratify CTBT Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program Cap on the stock of the LEU, limitation on SWU Modify Arak heavy-water reactor to produce less plutonium Apply Additional protocol to the IAEA safeguards agreement and modified code 3.1 Clarification of past activities only for technical purposes Ratify conventions on nuclear safety, liability for nuclear damage, physical protection Limitations on the program should be temporally Removing sanctions UN Security Council Resolution on sanctions should be passed prior to agreement First suspension – then removal

8. PIR Center’s recommendations for the comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear issue Unified position of the P5 Engaging Iran Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering black list IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles Replacement of the obsolete core of Tehran research reactor Accelerate Iranian accession to the World Trade Organization Nuclear safety and nuclear security exercises in the Middle East with Iranian participation P5 should provide should provide negative security assurances to the countries in the Middle East including Iran Option of the multilateralization of the Iranian nuclear fuel cycle Regional dynamics Go on with establishment of a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East Regional agreement, prohibiting the use of force or the threat of use of force against the nuclear installations

9. Chemical weapons destruction in Syria Most of Syria's "priority" chemical weapons material will be destroyed on board the MV Cape Ray, which has been fitted with twin hydrolysis systems The multinational mission overseen by the United Nations Security Council and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is due to be completed by 30 June 2014. Source: BBC Syria is moving its chemical materials to Latakia (2), where they are being loaded on to a Danish ship and taken to GioiaTauro in Italy (3). There they will be loaded on to the MV Cape Ray and destroyed at sea (4).

10. CTBT inthe MENA Region Source: CTBTO Source: PIR Center, Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East, 2013

11. Peaceful uses of nuclear energy in the MENA Region Source: PIR Center, Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East, 2013

12. Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East 1) All participants in the talks to establish a WMD-free zone should make joint statements in which they commit themselves to refrain from attacks (including cyberattacks), or threats of attacks, against each other’s declared nuclear facilities placed under IAEA Safeguards. 2) As part of the negotiations, the participants should draw a Road Map for gradually placing all nuclear infrastructure facilities in the region under the IAEA safeguards. 3) During the talks, all the states in the region should reach an understanding on the need to ratify without any further delay the Additional Protocol to the IAEA Safeguards Agreement.

13. Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East 4) Standing regional mechanism for confidence building measures with regard to nuclear programs, as well as chemical and biological weapons and some types of delivery systems. 5) Participation of all the Middle Eastern states in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty should be a precondition for signing a treaty establishing a WMD-free zone in the region. 6) Signing agreements to ban certain types of missiles would help build confidence and establish verification mechanisms in the region.

14. Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East 7) Internationalizing/regionalizing the nuclear fuel cycle 8) Institutional nuclear cooperation in the Middle East through the creation of a universal body which would include every country in the region. 9) Reliable mechanisms for early warning in the event of a nuclear accident

15. Ten Steps toward the WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East 10) Decision to set up an intergovernmental commission to draft the text of the treaty establishing a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. This should be done with the understanding that during the work on the text of the treaty all countries in the region will join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). The treaty should also establish verification mechanisms.

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