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May 25, 2011

Snowfall Observations and Products in the 21 st Century: Meeting the Needs of FEMA and the Climate Community. 2011 Snow Workshop Estes Park, Colorado. May 25, 2011. Jay H. Lawrimore NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Overview.

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May 25, 2011

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  1. Snowfall Observations and Products in the 21st Century:Meeting the Needs of FEMA and the Climate Community 2011 Snow Workshop Estes Park, Colorado May 25, 2011 Jay H. Lawrimore NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

  2. Overview • Since the 1990s FEMA has relied on a comparison of historical and current snowfall observations to determine if a county qualifies for snow disaster assistance • Historical observations provided by NCDC’s Snow Climatology dataset • Cooperative Observers Network (COOP) • Current observations from • Official NOAA observations (COOP, ASOS snow paid, Contract) • More recently other observations have been allowed (NWS Spotter, CoCoRaHS)

  3. Snow Assessment Hurdles • The assessment process has not always been easy • Historical record that varies in length of record, spatial density, temporal completeness • 100-year record more likely to produce a greater snowfall extreme than a station with a 15-year • A county with 10 stations has a greater likelihood of having a higher extreme than a county with 2 stations (all other things being equal) • Current observations of the event in question are for some counties • Few and far between • Hard to obtain • Questionably measured

  4. A Forecast Office Perspective • During the winter of 2009-2010, accurate snow measurements were a real laugh in the plains states. As a result some counties could not get $$$ from FEMA because the only source of measurement was a single coop observer in that county who probably under reported snowfall due to extremely high winds. Shelby county Iowa was denied $$$ while every surrounding county qualified. Those qualifying snow observations in surrounding counties were just as much a "best guess" as were the reports in Shelby county. • Seems to me FEMA should use more of a "mosaic" to determine snowfall in extreme cases like this one. If FEMA would have allowed road closure reports and photos of 20 to 30 foot drifts in cut outs where not even a large rotary blower could penetrate, then Shelby county would have qualified. In this case, if there had not been a coop site in Shelby county, FEMA would have used reports from the nearest stations and then Shelby county would have received the emergency aid.

  5. Workshop Objectives

  6. Improving Quality of Observations • Objective: Develop recommendations for standardizing snowfall measurement practices across networks, with special focus on: • (1.1) Observing Procedures • (1.2) Training Tools and Methods • (1.3) NWS Spotter and other unofficial data sources

  7. Improving Quantity (and Quality) • Objective: Identify ways to expand the network of high quality snowfall observations, with special focus on: • (2.1) Establishing methods for incorporating additional data sources (manual or automated) that meet established quality standards • (2.2) Refining the work plan for 2011-2012 NOAA/RCRN automated snow measurement study • (2.3) How FEMA and States can best fill gaps by using existing sources of data.

  8. Improving the Historical Record • Objective: Identify methods for resolving inadequacies in existing snow climatologies and data accessibility within NOAA, with special focus on: • (3.1) Quality control of historical data • (3.2) Methods for resolving data density limitations • (3.3) Improved solutions to web-based delivery of snow data and products

  9. Hail Reporting Practices • Objective: (4.1) Develop recommendations for changes to NWS Directives that will clarify and standardize hail reporting practices across COOP and ASOS networks to preserve the snow record.

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