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Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth

Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth. Anastasia R. Snyder Associate Professor of HDFS The Ohio State University Snyder.893@osu.edu. Acknowledgements and Funding Sources.

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Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth

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  1. Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth Anastasia R. Snyder Associate Professor of HDFS The Ohio State University Snyder.893@osu.edu

  2. Acknowledgements and Funding Sources • Diane K. McLaughlin, Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography at Penn State University, is a Co-PI on this project. • Mary Ann Demi, doctoral candidate at Penn State University in Rural Sociology and Demography, is a graduate student who has been involved in nearly all aspects of the project. • Funded by National Research Initiative grant from USDA/CSREES (#2007-35401-1773) • The primary data collection part of the project (RYE) is also funded by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania

  3. Motivation for Research • Rural youth have lower educational aspirations and attainment (Elder et al., 1996; Haller & Virkler, 1993; McLaughlin & Blackwell, 2000) • Rural youth out-migration is a problem that could be linked to unique future aspirations of rural youth (Fuguitt et al., 1989; Gibbs, 2005; Johnson, 2003) • No studies of how aspirations change over time, or what influences aspirations • Combines theoretical perspectives related to status attainment, achievement of human capital and adolescent identity development

  4. Figure 1. Educational Attainment of Population Age 25 and Older, 2006-2009 Source: 2006-2009 American Community Survey

  5. Figure 2. Percent with BA or Higher by Residence, ACS 2006-2008

  6. Figure 3. Future Expectations in 2000 n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

  7. Figure 4. Migration between 2000 and 2005 among NLSY97 Youth n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

  8. Figure 5. Educational Attainment in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009; n=6,831 youth age 15-19 in 2000, 20-24 in 2005

  9. Figure 6. Combining School and Work in 2005

  10. Table 1. Cox Proportional Hazard Model Predicting a First Birth, NLSY97 Note: Model controls for sex, race/ethnicity, family background characteristics; data from NLSY97 panel sample waves 1-11; Source: Snyder & Demi, 2009

  11. Main Research Questions • What are the future aspirations of rural youth regarding education, careers and migration? • What factors influence these aspirations? • How do aspirations change over time and what influences these changes (RYE primary data)? • How do early aspirations and expectations, and migration patterns, shape future outcomes during emerging adulthood (Wave 4)?

  12. Research Design • Rural Youth Education (RYE) Study • Stratified random sample of rural PA school districts in 2005 • Primary longitudinal data collection effort • Wave 1 n=1,516 • Wave 2 n=1,475 (946 panel) • Wave 3 n=1,287 (658 panel) • Analysis of secondary data for met/nonmet comparisons and additional information • NLSY97 panel data • Add-Health • 1990, 2000 Census; ACS PUMS 2005-2007

  13. Data Collection Time Points: W1=Spring 2005 W2=Winter-Spring 2007 W3=Winter-Spring-2009 W4=Winter-Spring-2011 W1 W2 W3 W4 7th 9th 11th HS+1 7th grade at W1—younger cohort W1 W2 W3 W4 11th HS+1 HS+3 HS+5 11th grade at W1—older cohort Figure 7. Cohort Sequential Design for RYE Data Collection

  14. Data Collection Challenges • Difficult to track the panel sample, especially the older cohort • Lots of residential mobility, changing numbers and emails • Final wave 4 data collection will use mixed-method survey collection design • Mail combined with web survey design (Dilman, 2009)

  15. Table 2. RYE Panel Sample at W1 (N=513)

  16. Figure 8. Change in Educational Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

  17. Figure 9. Change in Occupational Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

  18. Figure 10. Change in Residential Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

  19. Table 3. Logistic Regression Predicting Stability in Educational Aspirations Model controls for attitudes, community typology, family SES

  20. Conclusions • Stability in school aspirations, less so for work and residence • More stability among those with higher aspirations • Forming by 7th grade, possibly earlier • Stability in work aspirations is associated with stability in educational aspirations, but not with stability in residential aspirations • Importance of school and family contexts in educational aspirations

  21. Future Directions • Wave 4 data collection Spring 2011 • Use restricted NLSY97 data to examine within and between county moves (migration and residential mobility) • Emphasize work, school and migration transitions • Also include county-level variables • Use NLSY79 to examine return migration to rural areas

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