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City Water Risk

Risk Assessment Framework

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City Water Risk

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    2. Risk Assessment Framework & Method Example Using Water Supply System Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.

    3. Applicable to complex systems and address interdependencies Capable for analysing risk due to single and multiple agents Possible to analyse the comparative risks within and between systems Handling both types of the uncertainties (Alaetory & Epistemic) Flexible for the time dependent analysis Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.

    4. Conventional Practice For example; 1) Hazard Analysis: HAZID: Brain storming, experience form the past, what if analysis etc. HAZOP Analysis: System splitting, process, variables analysis; guided words analysis 2) Risk Estimation: Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FEMA) Fault Tree Event tree System Model Then Further…process

    5. Conventional Practice More suitable Methods for UWS are: System model Fault tree If we lack system model, only option available is Fault tree analysis

    6. Fault Tree Method For Risk Assessment

    8. This figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance levelThis figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance level

    9. Description of Uncertainty

    10. This figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance levelThis figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance level

    11. Propagation of Uncertainty

    12. Conversion PDF vs MF

    13. This figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance levelThis figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance level

    14. Risks Assessment Process

    15. This figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance levelThis figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance level

    16. This figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance levelThis figure shows of how the risks can be described after the statistical analysis. It has been represented and measured with respect to the performance level

    17. Hazards Scenarios

    18. Risk (i.e. Combination of Scenarios, likelihood and consequences) Consequences People affected, duration of services interruption, property damaged, & etc. Described by PDF or MF Aggregated results will be the final risk quantity Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.Who can use the city risk water? Is described from this slide.

    20. Consequences: In Case of Fuzzy

    21. Risks representation

    22. Risk level: Fuzzy Representation

    23. Next Model will be finalised by December 2009 Birmingham will be case study city

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