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Is the 8th Grade Really Make or Break?

Is the 8th Grade Really Make or Break?. E3 Alliance Food for Thought Presentation #2 March 24, 2010 Dr. Ed Fuller, PhD Education Consultant. Research Questions. 1) What 8 th grade TAKS mathematics scale scores are predictive of success on the 11 th grade TAKS mathematics test?

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Is the 8th Grade Really Make or Break?

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  1. Is the 8th Grade Really Make or Break? E3 Alliance Food for Thought Presentation #2 March 24, 2010 Dr. Ed Fuller, PhD Education Consultant

  2. Research Questions • 1) What 8th grade TAKS mathematics scale scores are predictive of success on the 11th grade TAKS mathematics test? • 2) Do passing rates vary by race/ethnicity and SES? • 3) What were the school percentages of 9th grade students who had mathematics scale scores predicting success and failure on the 11th grade mathematics TAKS test and what were the first-time passing rates on the 11th grade mathematics TAKS? • 4) What were the first-time passing rates on the 11th grade mathematics TAKS test for all students and schools, particularly for students predicted to not pass the 11th grade mathematics TAKS test?

  3. Data • Individual student-level TAKS scores in 8th grade in seven E3 partner districts in the 2002-03 school year. • The student records contained the grade level, race/ethnicity, LEP status, and program participation of each student (special education, bilingual education, etc.) as well as TAKS information for reading/English language arts and mathematics. • The original cohort of 8th grade students in 2002-03 was tracked over the next three years through the 2005-06 school year. • This study included only students in the original 8th grade cohort who progressed to the 11th grade in the 2005-06 school year and who also had a valid mathematics TAKS score in both the 8th and 11th grade. • Any students who were retained in grade, dropped out of school, did not have a valid mathematics score in either 8th or 11th grade, or who moved out of the central Texas area were excluded from the study. The final number of students included in the analysis was 5405.

  4. Methodology • The study relied on descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis. • Dependent Variable: Passing 11th grade math TAKS test • Independent Variables: student’s ELA scale score from 8th grade, student race/ethnicity, economically disadvantaged status, LEP status, bilingual education status, special education status, the school in which the student was enrolled, and 8th grade scale scores.

  5. Findings for Individual Students

  6. 8th Grade (2003) and 11th Grade (2006) TAKS Math Scores

  7. Percentage of 8th Grade Students Passing TAKS Math (2003) by Race/Ethnicity and SES

  8. Percentage of 11th Grade Students Passing TAKS Mathematics Test by Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status (2006)

  9. Regression Findings 8th grade students with a scale score of 1986 or below were at least 90% less likely than students scoring a 2100 to pass the 11th grade mathematics TAK test. A student with a scale score of 1986 answered 22 of the 50 questions correctly—eight questions less than a student scoring at 2100. Students with a scale score of 2176 or greater were at least six times more likely than a student with a score of 2100 on the 8th grade mathematics TAKS test to pass the 11th grade mathematics test.

  10. 8th Grade (2006) and 11th Grade (2009) TAKS Math Scores

  11. Distribution of 8th Grade Achievement by School

  12. High, Low, and Average School Percentages of 8th Grade Students Scoring At or Below Scale Score 1986 on 8th Grade Mathematics TAKS (2003)

  13. High, Low, and Average School Percentages of 8th Grade Students Scoring At or Above Scale Score 2176 on 8th Grade Mathematics TAKS

  14. HS Outcomes for 8th Grade Students Failing the TAKS Math Test in 2003 for CT Schools

  15. High School Outcomes by School Poverty Status for Students Not Passing the 2006 8th Grade TAKS Math Test

  16. Certification Status and Experience of 9th/10th Grade Math Teachers in 2007

  17. We Can Predict High School Outcomes from Elementary Scores

  18. Percentage of 8th Grade Students in 2006 Enrolled 2009 by 5th Grade TAKS Math Score

  19. Percentage of 8th Grade Students Passing TAKS Math Tests in 8th-, 9th-, and 11th-Grades

  20. Potential Policy Solutions • Identify students in your district that repeatedly do poorly on TAKS or other measures of achievement • Identify the issues affecting the students’ achievement • Rule out physical or mental problems (vision, hearing, dyslexia, etc) • Provide the best teachers to the students most in need of such teachers • Re-allocate resources to serve the children most in need

  21. 70 (97) 25 (46) 37 (42) 43 (55) 15 (25) 10 (21) 12 12 18 15 5 3 3 3 3 9 9 12 10 8 9 3 3 6 How Kids Fall Through the Cracks

  22. Ed Fuller, PhD Education Consultant edfuller@mail.utexas.edu

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