Patricia N. Manley, Ph.D and Bea Van Horne, Ph.D. USDA Forest Service Research and Development

1. The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring ProtocolA Monitoring Solution for National Forest System lands and the Nation Patricia N. Manley, Ph.D and Bea Van Horne, Ph.D. USDA Forest Service Research and Development International Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium September 2004

3. Growing Need for Biodiversity Conservation and Monitoring • Johannesburg Earth Summit (2002) highlighted increasing sustainability challenges driven by population growth • Recent ecoregional assessments in the US document a large proportion of all vertebrate species are of concern and interest • Columbia River Basin – 37% • Sierra Nevada – 46% • Southern California – 38% • Southern Appalachian Mtns – 29%

4. Monitoring Shortfalls • GAO (1997) reports that monitoring has historically been given low priority by the US Forest Service - not unlike many public land management agencies • Primary reasons for inadequate monitoring traced to the lack of…. • clear objectives • specified sampling design • standardized monitoring protocols • commitment to funding

6. MSIM Objectives • Nationally consistent protocol to provide spatially and temporally coincident data on an extensive array of vertebrate and plant species and their habitats across a broad scale in time and space • Data to be used to meet monitoring obligations and information needs to support Land Management Planning, regional assessments, and national assessments (e.g., RPA)

7. National Framework • Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships

8. National Framework • Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships • Set of primary survey methods are specified that are standardized, commonly employed methods selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and animal species

9. National Framework • Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships • Set of primary survey methods are specified that are standardized, commonly employed methods selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and animal species • Presence data are the target for population monitoring, but many methods yield more information (abundance, population structure)

10. National Framework • Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships • Set of primary survey methods are specified that are standardized, commonly employed methods selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and animal species • Presence data are the target for population monitoring, but many methods yield more information (abundance, population structure) • Regional scale design and implementation (survey methods, sample size, grid density, resample frequency)

11. FIA Grid • Hexagonal grid across entire country • 2400 ha cell size – one monitoring point/cell

12. Primary Survey Methods: Birds

13. Primary Survey Methods: Mammals

14. Primary Survey Methods: Amphibians and Reptiles

15. Primary Survey Methods: Vascular Plants

16. N Monitoring point Track stations Lake Small pond Bat mist nets Live trapping Meadow Bird point counts Pitfalls Aq. vert. surveys Conifer forest Plant surveys Habitat measures Riparian Note: not to scale.

17. Effort: 100 PSUs visited per year Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Panel 1 X . . . X . . . X . 2 . X . . . X . . . X 3 . . X . . . X . . . 4 . . . X . . . X . . 5XX X X X X X X X X 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 * =50 PSUs .= 0 PSUs x=50 PSUs 250 independent PSUs Augmented Serially Alternating Panel (ASAP) Design

18. MSIM Simulated Implementation • We asked the question… • If we implemented 10 primary survey methods • At each FIA grid point on federal lands in the Sierra Nevada, and • Based on estimates of the number of points in each species range and their probability of detection with the 10 protocols, then • Which species would we expect to observe at enough points to detect > 20% relative change between two time periods with 80% confidence and power?

19. MSIM Predicted Effectiveness • Over 70% of all vertebrate species were predicted to be observed frequently enough to detect a 20% change • Species represented a balance of life history characteristics, habitat associations, and species of concern and interest Manley et al. 2004 Ecological Applications

20. Sierra Nevada Pilot Study Sierra Nevada Lake Tahoe Lake Tahoe FIA hexagon FIA hexagon clusters clusters California California

21. Pilot Test Objectives • Evaluate effectiveness of survey methods • Species expected present vs. detected • Detection probabilities • Evaluate sampling efficiency per point • Number of sites • Number of visits per site • Evaluate trend detection capability • Cost, feasibility, sampling options

22. Preliminary Pilot ResultsSpecies Detections

23. 6 5 4 Species Accumulated 3 2 1 Site 2 Sites 1 3 Sites 0 0 1 2 3 4 Number of Visits Survey Effort Evaluation

24. Power Analysis a =.2 P =.5, n=328, m=263, S =2, S =2, 1 1 2 Detection probability 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 Simulated Power 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Baldwin and King in prep 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Change from P1 1

25. Potential Yields from MSIM Monitoring • At the scale of most national forests • For other land allocations of interest, such as wilderness • For hundreds of species of plants and animals • Proportion of points occupied • Spatial distribution and site occupancy • Estimates of abundance for land birds, small mammals, and plants • Measures of population structure (age ratio, sex ratio, reproduction)

26. Potential Yields from MSIM Scientific Discovery • Environmental thresholds for populations • Community structure and dynamics under a wide variety of environmental conditions • Models of suitable habitat at site and landscape scales for many species • Indicators and direct measures of sustainability derived from empirical data