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@ed_hawkins

Our evolving climate Dr. Ed Hawkins NCAS-Climate, University of Reading e.hawkins@reading.ac.uk www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk. @ed_hawkins. Projected pattern of warming. Long term CMIP5 projections. Our evolving climate. EU temperatures. Hawkins, 2011. Hawkins, 2011. Our evolving climate.

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@ed_hawkins

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  1. Our evolving climateDr. Ed HawkinsNCAS-Climate, University of Readinge.hawkins@reading.ac.ukwww.climate-lab-book.ac.uk @ed_hawkins

  2. Projected pattern of warming

  3. Long term CMIP5 projections

  4. Our evolving climate EU temperatures Hawkins, 2011 Hawkins, 2011

  5. Our evolving climate EU temperatures Observations Hawkins, 2011 Hawkins, 2011

  6. Our evolving climate EU temperatures Hawkins, 2011 Hawkins, 2011

  7. Our evolving climate Hawkins, 2011 Hawkins, 2011

  8. Possible next decades Distribution of decadal temperature trends in 21st C Hawkins, 2011 Hawkins, 2011

  9. CMIP5 projections for Central England

  10. CMIP5 projections for Central England

  11. Deser et al. (2012) Summer temperature rate of change until 2050 # Ens. members

  12. Summary so far…. • The uncertainty in the climate of the next decade for the UK and Europe is dominated by variability • Why do we see such decadal variability?

  13. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

  14. Recent Atlantic changes Upper ocean heat content Robson et al. 2012

  15. Recent Atlantic Ocean changes Atlantic temperature variability Variability due to changes in Atlantic overturning circulation? Sutton & Dong 2012

  16. Links to European rainfall Sutton & Dong 2012

  17. Questions: • Can we predict what is going to happen in the Atlantic and Europe in the next decade? • What has happened to the meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) recently? • What is going to happen to the AMOC in the next 1-100 years?

  18. Was the event predictable? • The Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) suggests that the warming could have been predicted in advance obs Subpolar Gyre Upper Ocean Heat Content anomalies predictions Robson et al. 2012, GRL

  19. Was the event predictable? Upper Ocean Heat Content anomalies from 1994 hindcast Robson et al. 2012, GRL

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