Identifying the population segments most likely to cycle

1. Identifying the population segments most likely to cycle Tim Ryley Transport Research Institute Napier University Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

2. Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

3. INTRODUCTION • Increased motor car dependency • Problems associated with motor car • Cycling re-emerged on UK & Edinburgh transport policy • Edinburgh suitable for cycling • Will people change? Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

4. INTRODUCTION Part of PhD – which has 2 objectives:  • Identify population segments most likely to use non-motorised transport • Develop methodology to model individual travel behaviour & likelihood to use non-motorised transport Focusing on 1st objective & cycling aspects Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

5. DATA COLLECTION • Data collection 1: secondary data from Scottish Household Survey - 2,910 households in Edinburgh collected 1999-2000 • Data collection 2: extensive travel behaviour survey of 997 households in West Edinburgh July 2003 Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

6. SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY(SHS) • Sample of 2,910 households • Ten population segments were produced using cluster analysis • Transport availability was linked to the segments • Travel behaviour was examined using SPSS Answer Tree Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

7. Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

8. SHS FINDINGS • Key life stages identified of gaining employment, having children & retiring • Small proportion (7%) of sample had bicycle available without competition from motor car • Of 10 population segments, students had greatest propensity to cycle Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

9. SHS FINDINGS • Cycling previous week – minority that cycle (6%) tend to be utility or leisure cyclists • Journey to work – speed & convenience mentioned for all modes, exercise key advantage for non-motorised transport Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

10. WEST EDINBURGHHOUSEHOLD SURVEY • Call & post method along transport corridor • Four postcode sectors - Dalry to Currie • Sample of 997 questionnaires • Socio-economic, transport availability, journey & attitudinal variables • Two stated preference (SP) experiments: cycle to work, general walk or car Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

11. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CYCLING STATISTICS • 42% households had at least one adult bicycle available • 18% respondents cycled at least once a month (5% cycled “most days”) • 3% of those in employment cycled to work Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

12. ATTITUDINAL STATEMENTS • Local cycling facility improvements low on favoured transport policy measures • Off-road cycle lanes more popular than those on-road • 53% respondents agreed “safety fears of traffic prevent them from cycling more often in Edinburgh” Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

13. ATTITUDINAL STATEMENTS • Responses to cycling statements strongly segmented by gender • More men currently cycled • Barriers to cycling were greater for women, particularly safety from traffic fears but also topography and weather Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

14. SP - CYCLE TO WORK? • SP for 620 who travel to work by car / bus / walk • Most 422 (68%) would never consider cycling, trip too far or cannot cycle • 198 respondents – models yet to be run • 4 SP variables for 9 games: journey time, cost (pay to cycle), destination facilities, route • Extra qualitative variables: choosing mode & reasons not cycle Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar

15. CONCLUSIONS • Cycling is a minority activity • Exercise is an important advantage to stress • Policy measures need to emphasise both utility & leisure cycle routes • Safety main deterrent to cycling • Gender-targeted marketing strategy Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar