Towards a successful integration of wind power into Europe’s electricity grids

1. Towards a successful integration of wind power into Europe’s electricity grids

2. Contents • Study background and aims • Approach & methodology • Sample results • Key findings • Network strengthening • Making best use of existing network capacity • Wind / network technical compatibility • Costs and benefits • Policy issues • Next steps • Acknowledgements

3. Background and Aims • Initiated summer 2007 by a consortium of TSOs from across Europe’s 4 synchronous areas • With focus on: • Achieving Europe’s renewable energy targets • By addressing immediate and near-term network related challenges concerning large scale wind power • In the context of a developing single internal market

4. Approach Detailed network models for Continental, Nordic, Great Britain and Ireland synchronous areas Collated existing national development plans to 2015 providing outlook to 2020 Wind development scenarios consistent with TradeWind Market models and economic analysis supported by SUPWISci Project consultation including European Commission and other stakeholders

5. Methodology • Combine findings from detailed analysis of snapshots into context provided by year-round market modelling • Year round modelling of wind in electricity market: • Measured wind time series spanning Europe • Day-ahead dispatch (national copper plates with designated cross-border transfer capacities) • Within-day redispatch (key pinchpoints represented by linearised load flow approximations) • Costs and operating patterns derived for fuel and CO2 price sensitivities • Detailed analysis of load flow and system dynamics: • Challenging but realistic point-in-time snapshots • Key north & south wind patterns (selected from year-round data) • inform security assessments, operational demands and reinforcement designs

6. Limitations • 2015 chosen as furthest future point for which detailed national development plans generally available • Realistic snapshots do not show worst case conditions in every area: • EWIS is not a check on national plans • But focuses on demanding European conditions (market interactions and continental wind patterns)

7. EWIS scenarios Best Estimate Wind scenario 2015 circa 140 GW wind Optimistic Wind scenario 2015 circa 185GW wind optimistic but not impossible Enhanced Network Scenario as optimistic wind scenario but with enhanced cross-border capacities (gives outlook beyond 2015) Reference Scenario wind as 2008 (circa 70GW) (identifies wind specific requirements) EWIS scenario classification WindPower Enhanced Network Scenario Optimistic Wind Best Estimate Reference Exchange capacity

8. Year round statistical results Congested Time Exchange Duration Curve Exchange Time (one year run) Congested Time

9. Snapshots with context from database SupWiSci consortium market model development (synergies to ongoing FP6 projects and TradeWind)

10. - Onshore installations • - Offshore wind park cluster until 2015 • - Bulk power flow • - Bottleneck • Bulk DC power flow at rated line capacity 2015 risk assessments

11. UK North Ireland South West Central Europe South Network strengtheningConfirm existing + identify additional • Longer-term measures ~€10.5b (€120/kW wind i.e. ~€4/MWh)

12. Stability & security assessments • Security achieved with expected fault ride through performance • Stability measures (stabilisers, etc) adequate but increasingly important as enhanced line ratings exploited

13. Balancing cost assessments • Wind balancing costs €1.6-2.6/MWh of wind produced

14. Cost-benefits • Potential for ~30 beneficial cross-border reinforcements @ €12,3b • Also assessed: • Storage • Dynamic ratings • Enhanced demand side

15. Findings & Recommendations • A pan-European network/market modelling approach is needed to identify measures to efficiently integrate wind • ENTSO-E is taking forward this demanding development task • Identified additional/accelerated network strengthening measures to be considered • ENTSO-E has published in draft Ten Year Network Development plan. Companies to take forward investment justifications • Already planned reinforcements needed urgently – streamlined consenting crucial • Key schemes highlighted to policy makers

16. Findings & Recommendations (2) • Funding of cross-border network strengthening requires regulatory assessment of European welfare (in addition to national regulatory scrutiny) • ERGEG (in advance of ACER) engaged on wind integration issues • Additional short-term measures required • TSOs engaged in further development of operational switching, line capacity management, phase shifters for power flow control, etc • Inter-TSO cooperation essential for delivering short-term measures • Build on TSO Security Cooperation (TSC) and CORESO

17. Findings & Recommendations (3) • Network code development & harmonisation • ENTSO-E has agreed to establish pilot working building on work from EWIS and EWEA Grid Code group • Market development (especially better network representation in day ahead and intra day markets) • EWIS modelling facilities available to regional initiative analyses • Exchanging best practice and experience on TSO wind/demand forecasting and strategic management (e.g. see Spain) • Discussions and contacts to be continued within ENTSO-E • Future options and policy developments • Links established between EWIS and Offshore Grid groups • Continue work on wind integration for 2020 and beyond

18. Acknowledgements • EWIS gratefully acknowledges: • the support of the European Commission DG TREN • the contribution of our modelling partners SUPWISci (University of Duisberg-Essen) • the participation and collaboration of our key stakeholders, especially the EWEA TradeWind study, IEA Task 25, Eurelectric & ENTSO-E Our final report is available on: www.wind-integration.eu