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How Do We Get to 100 TeV ?

How Do We Get to 100 TeV ? . Vladimir Shiltsev Accelerator Physics Center Fermilab April 9, 2014. Abstract

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How Do We Get to 100 TeV ?

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  1. How Do We Get to 100 TeV? Vladimir Shiltsev Accelerator Physics Center \ Fermilab April 9, 2014

  2. Abstract Particle colliders for high-energy physics have been in the forefront of scientific discoveries for more than half a century. The accelerator technology of the colliders has progressed immensely, while the beam energy, luminosity, facility size, and cost have grown by several orders of magnitude. The method of colliding beams has not fully exhausted its potential but has slowed down considerably in its progress. I will briefly review the development of the collider technology, examine near-term collider projects that are currently under development, derive a simple scaling model for the cost of large accelerators and colliding beam facilities based on costs of 17 big facilities which have been either built or carefully estimated.  The cost parameterization will guide our consideration of possible future frontier accelerator facilities. I will conclude with an attempt to look beyond the current horizon and to find what paradigm changes are necessary for breakthroughs in the field. V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  3. 29 Colliders Built… 7 Work “Now” VEPP-2000 VEPP-4M LHC RHIC BEPC-II DAFNE KEK-B V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  4. Colliders: Glorious Past  ? E~exp(t/5yrs) UNK V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  5. Colliders for Tomorrow (ca 2030) - see also F.Zimmerman talk Depend on: 1. LHC results 2. Cost-Performance-Feasibility V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider • LHC: • high-luminosity LHC (x5 design L) • LHeC • Lepton Colliders • ILC • CLIC • +- Collider • Higgs Factory: • linac based e+e- • ring based e+e- or+-

  6. Let’s Talk About MONEY … scientifically, no emotions V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  7. Scale of Numbers V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider • US HEPbudget is ~0.8 B$ / year • Can(?) shoot for (25% x 0.8B$ x 10 yrs) = 2 B$ • with int’l partners x 2 (?) = 4 B$ • World’s Particle Physics ~3 B$ / year • can possibly afford “global” 8-12 B$ project • will require all of usas>1000 experts needed • “one machine for all” = no domestic for 2 out of 3

  8. “Known” Costs for 17 Machines It is possible to parameterize the cost for known technologies • Actual • RHIC, MI, SNS, LHC • Under construction • XFEL, FAIR, ESS • Future • SSC, VLHC, NLC • ILC, TESLA, CLIC, Project-X, Beta-Beam, SPL, ν-Factory V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  9. Phenomenological Cost Model Cost(TPC)= αL1/2 + βE1/2 + γ P1/2 where α,β,γ– technology dependent constants • α≈ 2B$/sqrt(L/10 km) • β≈ 10B$/sqrt(E/TeV) for RF • β≈ 2B$/sqrt(E/ TeV) for SC magnets • β≈ 1B$ /sqrt(E/TeV) for NC magnets • γ≈ 2B$/sqrt(P/100 MW) “Tunnel Length” Civil Construction “Site Power” Infrastructure “Energy” – Cost of Accelerator Components “Total Project Cost in the US accounting” V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  10. V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  11. Total Cost vs Model (Log-Log) The model is good to +-30% V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  12. Summary on the αβγ-Model • Works with ~30% accuracy over wide range of parameters: • almost 3 orders of magnitude in L (length) from 0.5 km to 233 km • 4.5 orders of magnitude in E(energy) from 1 GeV to 40 Tev • more than 2 orders of magnitude in P (power) from few MW to 560MW • With good certainty one may expact that the αβγ-model should give a decent estimate of TPC for any „green field“ facility which employs „known“ accelerator technologies (RF, magnets, tunnels, cryoplants and power infrastructure, etc) • So, it was applied to all currently known/discussed ideas for future big accelerators: • SPL, Project X, DAEDALUS, μμ Higgs Factory, e-e+ Higgs Factories 16km to 80km, ν-Factory, μμCollider, +-e+ linear colliders (cold and warm, 0.5 TeV to 3 TeV), 40 TeV circular pp, 100 TeV circular p-p, 175TeV circular p-p, beam-plasma and beam-wakefield colliders (which use ”traditional” drive beams), etc, etc • E.g., Future Circular Collider L=100km, E=100TeV p-p, P=400MW: • TPC=2×(100/10)1/2+2×(100 TeV/1TeV)1/2+2×(400/100)1/2 =30B$ ±9B$ • Once again, if you see much lower numbers, inquire whether that’s TPC • or “European accounting”, difference is usually x 2-2.5 if one does not • account OH, R&D, PED, management, escalation, contingency, etc V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  13. The αβγ-Model Predictions V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider • US alone can afford (within 2-4B$) • Proton Driver (Project X) • World’s Big Project possibilities • Higgs factory (“~ any type”) • may be Muon Collider or ILC-0.5 TeV • What’s Beyond our limits (> 8-12B$) • >0.5 TeVe+e- collider (“~ any type”) • >30 TeV hadron (“~ any type”)

  14. Far Future Colliders: “Phase-Space” • Newtechnology should provide >10 GeV/m @ total component cost <1M$/m( ~NC magnets now) ~ 50 MeV per meter V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider • “Interesting Physics” • 100-1000 TeV(10-100 × LHC) • decent luminosity • “Live within our means”: • < 10 B$ • < 10 km • < 10 MW (beam power, ~100MW total)

  15. Options: #1 Dielectric Structures Beam driven in Diamond L~0.004-0.3 m dE~few MeV  ~0.1 GeV/m Optical in Si λ=0.8 μm L=0.001 m dE~0.00025 GeV  0.25 GeV/m AWA ATF FACET V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  16. Option #1: Dielectrics Jing C., et al, IPAC’13, pp. 1322 ISSUES AND QUESTIONS: Gradient <0.3-1 GeV/m – is NOT sufficient ! Staging is VERY inefficient – severe troubles with transfers and even lower average acceleration gradient Cost is prohibitive:the αβγ-model TPC for a 3 TeV e+e- DWAcollider concept (calls for 20 traditional 0.86 GeV pulsed e- linacs, ~20 km of tunnels , ~430MW of site power)2×(20/10)1/2+20×8×(0.86GeV/1TeV)1/2+2×(430/100)1/2=21.7B$ ±7B$ ... plus, cost of diel.structures = ? Power MW: 430 for 3 TeV (est.) … for 10-100 TeV ? Luminosity - unknown (many issues, dE/E) NB - at >1 TeV electrons radiate! V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  17. Option #2: Plasma Waves Plasma wave: electron density perturbation Laser/beam pulse ~ p/c Idea- Tajima & Dawson, Phys. Rev. Lett. (1979) Option A: Short intense e-/e+/p bunch 1018cm-3, 100 GV/m, λp~30μm Option B: Short intense laser pulse ~1017cm-3, 30 GV/m, λp~100μm V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  18. Option #2a: Plasma Wakes by Beam FACET Plasma OFF Plasma ON n∼5e16 cm-3 L=0.3 m dE ~2 GeV  6 GeV/m V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  19. Option #2b: Plasma Wakes by Laser BELLA LWA (UTA) n∼few e17 cm-3 L=0.03-0.1 m dE ~2-5 GeV (PW lasers)  > 30 GeV/m V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  20. Option #2: Plasma Wakefields ISSUES AND QUESTIONS: Staging is VERY inefficient – limits average acceleration gradient to ~1-2 GeV/m (beam) and ~10 GeV/m (laser) Cost is prohibitive (now) : e.g., in the beam-option (A) the αβγ-model estimate the cost of 10 TeV facility (25 GeV SCRF drive-beam, 20 km of tunnels, 540 MW) as 2×(20/10)1/2+ 10×(25GeV/1TeV)1/2+2×(540/100)1/2 =9B$ + 30-70% for plasma cells (?).... - for laser-plasma~15-30 M$/10 GeV(i.e.factor of ~20 above required) Power MW: 130 for 1 TeV–> 540 for 10 TeV (est.) Luminosity - unknown (many issues, dE/E) NB - at >1 TeV electrons radiate! Leemans & Esarey, Physics Today (03/2009) Adli E., et al, arXiv:1308.1145 (2013). V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  21. Option #3: Crystals & Muons n~1022cm-3, 10 TeV/m  1 PeV = 1000 TeV n ~1000 nB ~100 frep ~106 L ~1030-32 V.Shiltsev, Phys. Uspekhy55965 (2012) V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  22. Option #3: Crystals & Muons • ISSUES AND QUESTIONS: • Can do(??) ~100+ GeV/m (test at ASTA) • - How to excite crystal? • - Xrays? Sub-μm short bunches? • Cost/munknown • Power MW: unknown • Luminosity - unknown (low) • yes – That will be the shortest accelerator • yes - Energy reach of 1-10 PeV thinkable • yes - Muonsdo not radiate !! V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  23. New Paradigm for Collider Physics V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider Size is limited <10 km  calls for the highest gradients  crystals  muons Luminosity calls for more par- ticles in the smallest beam size This is the smallest beam size The power is limited <10MW  N is small at high E  L

  24. Paradigm Shift : Energy vs Luminosity V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider

  25. Summary V.Shiltsev | IOP2014: 100 TeV Collider • Success of Colliders : 29 built over 50 yrs, ~10 TeVc.m.e. • The progress has greatly slowed down due to increasing size, complexity and cost of the facilities. The prospects for the next 20 years depend on the LHC discoveries. • Reality sets constraints on the far-future colliders: <10B$, <10 km, <100MW • There is (at least one) conceivable possibility to reach 100-1000 TeVc.m.e. within these limits (in far future). • At least three paradigm shifts are needed: • development of the new technology based on ultrahigh gradients ~0.1-10 TeV/m in, e.g., plasma or crystals; • acceleration of heavier particles, preferably, muons; • new approaches to physics research with luminosity limited to ~1030-32 cm-2s-1.

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