“ Operationalizing Intelligence Across the Global Enterprise” LTG Michael T. Flynn

1. “Operationalizing Intelligence Across the Global Enterprise” LTG Michael T. Flynn

2. Global Megatrends – The Imperative for Change A complex and uncertain future for a world transforming at an unprecedented rate… Between 2010 and 2030, world’s population will grow by more than a billion people (Almost all of that growth in the developing world) By 2020, the number of internet users will double to more than 4 billion (The fastest rate of growth in the developing world) Technology By 2035, global energy consumption will rise by 50 percent, with developing countries making up 84 percent of the demand Resources By 2025, the combined GDP of China & India will be bigger than that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US put together Economics

3. Global Megatrends – Crisis is the New Normal A closer look at population and information technology By 2020, more than 500 cities with one million or more people By 2020, more than half the world’s population connected to the internet • Competition for food, water, and energy breeds conflict and social unrest • Overpopulation weakens local governance, security, and employment opportunity • Unstable governments struggle to provide for their people and empower transnational groups • The unpredictable shifting security landscape redefines the international balance of power • Sprawling urban areas emerge as the dominant terrain • Increased connectivity gives enemies a platform and network without accountability • Wildcard and networked threats exert strategic influence despite limited resources • Development of disruptive technology outpaces our policies and ability to protect against attack • Data correlation, recall, and storage become just as important as analysis and collection • The network emerges as the new weapon system INFO TECHNOLOGY POPULATION

4. Megatrend: An Urbanized World ~10B 8B In 2008, half the world’s population lived in urban areas 6.7B ~700 632 442 Global Population (In Billions) 2.6B 1.7B 1B 74 16 3 Number of Cities Over 1 Million 1900 1950 2010 2025 2008 1800 2050 Statistics taken from US Census Bureau and the United Nations

5. Information Technologies & the Internet Rapid advances in communications, transportation, and information set the stage Virtual Cloud, Information/ NetworkConvergence Storage, Interface , Analysis, Ingest & Collaborate Storage, Interface & Analysis Storage & Interface Storage 20XX? 00s - Present 90s – 00s 80s – 90s 70s-80s

7. Global Megatrends –So What We must adapt to a complex spectrum of instability and uncertainty • Acknowledge the unpredictable nature of the operating environment • Prioritize building a new type of intelligence workforce • Develop tools to understand a data-rich environment • Build agility and flexibility to rapidly shift resources • Expand the warning function to the edge • Understand impacts of social media on the intelligence collection system • Partner for advantage with non-traditional partners

8. China’s global supply increase 2000 2014 In 2014, China exports goods to 69.9% of all countries In 2000, China exported goods to 9.7% of all countries China is thetop supplierof goods to this country China is the second or third supplier of goods to this country

9. Islamic Terrorist Groups 18Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present 21Total Islamic Terrorist Groups 24 Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present 41Total Islamic Terrorist Groups 2004 2014 These maps depict the number and primary areas of operation of Islamic terrorist groups in 2004 and 2014, as designated by U.S. State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list. These maps only depict the geographic regions from Africa to South Asia, and do not include North or South America.

10. Security through Partnerships • Appropriate laws, policies, • funding, and authorities • National-level security priorities • Multilateral partnerships • Improve feedback loop • Support LE/MIL by providing operational opportunities TARGETING AND ENABLING Intel REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIZATION COMBINED OPERATIONS • Communicate military priorities • Establish intel requirements Policymakers • Matrixed Ops/Intel centers work best Highly Agile Operational Intelligence Interdependent Networks Partner Nation, Service & Interagency Integration Law Enforcement Intelligence • Task organize to fuse analysts, collectors, and mission support • Strengthen partnerships Warfighters • Partner with allies for joint, intel-driven ops • Increase foreign rotations and training opportunities Military IC Analysis IC Collection • Capitalize on IT developments • Gain efficiencies thrupartnered logistics Mission Support • Provide global coverage • Prioritize the right assets • against the greatest threats • Build Multi-INT assessments • Understand the environment • Collaborate outside your office, agency, and country

11. Decision Making in the 21st Century(Battle Rhythm in The Information Age) Traditional News Cycle Blogs DECISION MAKERS I-Reporter Twitter Social Networks Social Media EVENT BREAKING NEWS Real-time news feed to mobile devices Immediate Immense data Unfiltered Unconfirmed Sensational ? Who gets there first The disconnect between the speed of information and the intelligence cycle • Analyze • Collect Intelligence Cycle • Disseminate 11 UNCLASSIFIED

12. ISR Today: What It Looks Like SPACE GPS Commercial IMINT National IMINT AIR National SIGINT U-2 Rivet Joint LAND Guardrail Sensor Suite EP-3 JSTARS Predator Global Hawk AF-DCGS CYBER MARITIME OUR CHALLENGE: Processing, exploiting, and sharingintegrated ISR bulk data in an international coalition environment 12

13. ISR Today: How It Works FIX FIND FINISH UNDERSTAND • Principles • Speed • Trust • Transparency • New Partners • Centralize SA • Decentralize DM ANALYZE EXPLOIT MAIN EFFORT OPS / INTEL FUSION C2 \ PED \ Partner Interoperability \ Joint ISR Automation \ Cross Domain Access \ Shared Architecture 13

14. How We Will Get There – A New Model for Intelligence The Way Forward

15. What I’ve Learned: What We Need With no doctrine / no guidance… • Constantly task organize to achieve your purpose • Develop a culture of inclusion and transparency • Must have a widely understood strategy • Build / sustain a disciplined battle rhythm • Centralize situational awareness / decentralize decision making • Trust in team • Constant leader involvement Maintain an offensive mindset…Change must be driven, not just shared…seek opportunities, have the intellect to see it and the courage to take it”

16. Questions

17. UNCLASS/FOUO Global Threats and Challenges to 2025 AMERICA’S ARMY: THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Global Threats and Challenges to 2025 Click to edit Master title style Arctic Territorial Disputes UNCLASSIFIED Central Asia Interstate Friction EU Integration Frictions Armenia-Azerbaijan Crisis Afghanistan Continuing Insurgency Russia-”Privileged Zone” Tensions Balkans Instability Cyber Attack on Critical U.S. Infrastructure North Korea Regime Collapse Peacekeeping India/Pakistan Terrorist WMD Attack Israeli-Palestinian Tensions Libya Internal Tensions North Korea -South Korea Crisis Sunni/Shia/ Kurd Competition China Internal Tensions Iran Regional Threats, Nuclear China-Japan Crisis TCO Violence Cuba - Instability Pakistan Internal Tensions Egypt Internal Tensions Terrorist Challenge Haiti Crisis China-Taiwan Crisis Yemen Instability TCOs Destabilizing Governance SE Asia Tensions Terrorist Challenge Sudan Conflict South China Sea Tensions Terrorist Challenges Venezuela Instability Somalia Conflict Sub-Saharan Africa Widespread Potential Humanitarian Crises, Governance Crises Terrorist Challenge Colombia Insurgency Piracy Terrorist Challenge Peru Insurgency “A broad set of enduring, highly asymmetric, unconventional, novel and indirect challenges…” Dr. Michael G. Vickers, Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, June 3, 2014 9/11/2014 17 UNCLASSIFIED

18. Global Threats and Challenges to 2025 UNCLASS/FOUO AMERICA’S ARMY: THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Overlapping “Playbooks” Overlapping “Playbooks” Click to edit Master title style UNCLASSIFIED Russia vs. Ukraine • Common Adversary Themes • Stay Under Threshold for U.S. Military Action • Achieve Results without Decisive military Engagement • Indirect Strategies across full ROMO • States Maintain Large Armed Forces • Psychological/Influence Warfare • Play the International Environment • Pursue Permanent Warfare • Russia vs. Ukraine • Proxies, SOF, Influence Ops • Exploiting Identity Cleavages • Force Demonstrations /”Sabre Rattling” • Exploiting NATO Divisions • Create “Controlled Instability” Islamic Extremism & Volatility • Islamic Extremism • Multiple Forces, Militias • Proxies, Advisors • Selective CW Use • Mixed Conventional vs. Irregular Forces • Improvised Weapons • Complex International Play Korea Disruptive State Iran Disruptive State Aggressive China • Korea – Disruptive State • Periodic Provocations incl lethal attacks • Outmoded but Large & Deadly Conventional Force • SOF, Missiles for Deterrence & Revenue • WMD for Deterrence • Complex International Role • Global Conditions • Weak/Poor Governance • Global Integration (Economic & Informational) • Predominance of US (incl Allies) in Global Military Reach • Evolving Legal Structures • Costs & Risks of War • Iran – Disruptive State • System of Proxies • Guardian of Shia • Swarm tactics • Ballistic Missiles/GLCMs for strategic influence • Conventional, Unconventional, & Irregular forces & strategy • China vs. Neighbors • Incremental and Intimidating Assertion of Territorial Claims • Force Bilateral Situations • Use Non-Military Assets with Military in Overwatch • Control ROE to Minimize Risk of Escalation Non Linear Dynamic Use of the Elements of Power and Activities Overlap to Achieve Political Objectives