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Lake Washington and the synergy between long-term monitoring and experimental research

Lake Washington and the synergy between long-term monitoring and experimental research. Stephanie E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007. Can we characterize food web interactions based on monitoring data? History of L. Washington Experimental work

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Lake Washington and the synergy between long-term monitoring and experimental research

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  1. Lake Washington and the synergy between long-term monitoring and experimental research Stephanie E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  2. Can we characterize food web interactions based on monitoring data? • History of L. Washington • Experimental work • Compare expt’l results to structure of long-term data • Multivariate Autoregressive models (MARs) Photo: John J. Gilbert S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  3. Lake Washington • Clearcut watershed 1800’s • 1.4 million in watershed • Fisheries & tributary manipulations • Municipal sewage until 1968 Seattle Lake Washington S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  4. Seattle Lake Washington S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  5. Water clarity “Recovered” Sewage diversion Secchi (m) S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  6. Secchi (m) Daphnia L-1 Water clarity “Recovered” Sewage diversion Daphnia establishment S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  7. Daphnia L-1 • Daphnia • Influential grazer • Predators’ favorite S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  8. Daphnia L-1 Why the sudden Daphnia appearance? S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  9. Daphnia L-1 Why the sudden Daphnia appearance? Neomysis S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  10. Daphnia L-1 Why the sudden Daphnia appearance? Longfin smelt Neomysis S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  11. Daphnia L-1 Why the sudden Daphnia appearance? Oscillatoria Longfin smelt Neomysis S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  12. Experimental evidence for Oscillatoria negative effects Infante & Abella 1985 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  13. Experimental evidence for Oscillatoria negative effects Infante & Abella 1985

  14. Experimental evidence for Oscillatoria negative effects and Cryptomonas importance Infante & Litt 1985 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  15. Evidence for these relationships in natural data? ln Cryptomonad bv ln Daphnia ind L-1 ln Oscillatoria biovolume S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  16. Lake Washington food web S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  17. Multispecies Autoregressive Models (MARs) Ives, Dennis, Cottingham, & Carpenter. 2003. Ecol. Monogr. 73(2) Log abundance of species i tomorrow Log abundance of species i today xi(t+1) = xi(t) + ai + [S bi,j xj(t)] + [S ci,k uk(t)] Species-specific constant S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  18. Multispecies Autoregressive Models (MARs) Ives, Dennis, Cottingham, & Carpenter. 2003. Ecol. Monogr. 73(2) Log abundance of species i tomorrow Effect of species j on species i Log abundance of species i today xi(t+1) = xi(t) + ai + [S bi,j xj(t)] + [S ci,k uk(t)] Species-specific constant Log abundance of species j today S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  19. Multispecies Autoregressive Models (MARs) Ives, Dennis, Cottingham, & Carpenter. 2003. Ecol. Monogr. 73(2) Log abundance of species i tomorrow Effect of species j on species i Log abundance of species i today Effect of environmental variable k on species i xi(t+1) = xi(t) + ai + [S bi,j xj(t)] + [S ci,k uk(t)] Species-specific constant Level of environmental variable k today Log abundance of species j today S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  20. Multispecies Autoregressive Models (MARs) • Monthly data from 1962 to 1994 • Fit equations simultaneously for each of 13 phyto- and zooplankton groups • Coefficients represent interaction strength Ives, Dennis, Cottingham, & Carpenter. 2003. Ecol. Monogr. 73(2) xi(t+1) = xi(t) + ai + [S bi,j xj(t)] + [S ci,k uk(t)] S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  21. xi(t+1) = xi(t) + ai + [S bi,j xj(t)] + [S ci,k uk(t)] • Multispecies Autoregressive Models (MARs) • Monthly data from 1962 to 1994 • Fit equations simultaneously for each of 13 phyto- and zooplankton groups • Coefficients represent interaction strength • Build10,000 random models – select best fit (AIC) • Bootstrapping for confidence intervals Ives, Dennis, Cottingham, & Carpenter. 2003. Ecol. Monogr. 73(2) S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  22. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  23. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  24. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  25. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  26. Daphnia # L-1 Cryptomonads Biovolume

  27. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  28. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  29. MAR food web construction for Lake Washington • Aspects of historical conceptual model supported • Inhibitory role of Oscillatoria • Intense competitive effects of Daphnia • “New” relationships • Cryptomonad importance • Role for picoplankton Hampton, Scheuerell & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  30. Explore the scale of effects! Hampton & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

  31. Explore the scale of effects! Biweekly Weekly Monthly Hampton & Schindler 2006 S. E. Hampton, NCEAS, UCSB, hampton@nceas.ucsb.edu, 7 July 2007

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