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Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell , David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick,

The Father’s Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea: Chickens, Eggs, Dikes, And Slow Earthquakes. Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell , David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick, Paul Okubo. So What ?. Slow Earthquakes Being Recognized as Fundamental Part of the Seismic Cycle

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Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell , David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick,

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  1. The Father’s Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea:Chickens, Eggs, Dikes, And Slow Earthquakes Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell , David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick, Paul Okubo

  2. So What ? • Slow Earthquakes Being Recognized as Fundamental Part of the Seismic Cycle Cascadia, Japan, Mexico, Alaska, San Andreas, Hawaii • Periodicity Observed Cascadia, Mexico, Hawaii • No General Theory for Slow Earthquakes and/or Periodicity Rate & State Friction RSF modified by climatic fluctuations (Lowry, 2006) • TODAY’s TALK: Review Kilauea Deformation and Slow Earthquakes Father’s Day Intrusion and Evidence For Slow Earthquake Stress Modeling  Explanation for Periodicity Due to Constant Stressing Rate

  3. Cascadia Slow Earthquakes From Rogers&Dragert, 2003 From Miller et al., 2002

  4. Seismicity (<10km) & CGPS Deformation 1997-2005 Kilauea Caldera ERZ SWRZ HP Hilina Slump

  5. Owen et al, 2000 - Stable Sliding of Entire Decollement • Cayol et al., 2000 - Decollement Locked seaward of EQs The Hilina Slump • From Morgan et al., 2003

  6. Competing Models Cayol et al. 2000: EXPLAINS SEISMICITY

  7. Magmatism & Stress Dsc = t + msn From Cayol et.al, 2000

  8. 774+/-7 Time Series Next SE Expected March 17, 2007

  9. Triggered Seismicity Slow Earthquakes: 2 Families

  10. Earthquake Counts – Western Events From Brooks et.al, 2006

  11. Possible SE Sources & Triggered Seismicity From Brooks et.al, 2006

  12. Coulomb Failure Stress from Slow Earthquakes From Segall et.al, 2000 BACKGROUND STRESSES ARE NEGLECTED

  13. From Wolfe et.al, submitted

  14. Earthquake Relocations From Wolfe et.al,submitted

  15. Relocations: Cross Sections From Wolfe et.al,submitted

  16. USGS & NSF Experiment: Feb – July, 2007 (USGS, UH, U Wisconsin, Stanford)

  17. ALOS: Line of Sight

  18. Competing Models

  19. Competing Models Far-field residuals close to zero

  20. Slow Earthquakes & Dikes

  21. Competing Models

  22. Vertical Results

  23. Vertical Results: June 2007

  24. Tilt Meters

  25. Periodic Slow Earthquake Comparison Guerrero data courtesy T. Lowry

  26. Guerrero Cascadia Kilauea From Sykes & Menke, 2006

  27. WAOP UWEV NUPM AHUP HALR KTPM An Explanation for Why and When ?

  28. ERZ OPENING (1998-Present) • (Cortesy Katie Phillips, Dave Chadwell, SCRIPPS)

  29. Stress Models

  30. SE Constant Stressing Rate

  31. Complete Stressing Cycle

  32. So What ? • Father’s Day intrusion triggered another Slow Earthquake at Kilauea • Delayed, but still the most regular faulting event ever observed instrumentally (I think) • The Cayol et al. (2000) model combined with a constant stressing rate provides a simple explanation of periodicity • What’s next? Hope for a rate change along East Rift Zone to test the constant stressing rate hypothesis

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