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Project Management 101. Planning Phase. Planning. Concept Updated Portfolio (Cost > $15,000) Name, Description, Initial Benefit, Initial Scope. Plan and estimate the work and costs involved Balance scope, schedule and costs to deliver the requirements Document issues and constraints
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Project Management 101 Planning Phase
Planning Concept Updated Portfolio (Cost > $15,000) Name, Description, Initial Benefit, Initial Scope • Plan and estimate the work and costs involved • Balance scope, schedule and costs to deliver the requirements • Document issues and constraints • Develop the Detail Plan • Update Work Plan • Update Staffing Profile • Update Financial Summary • Update the Business Case/CBA • Update the Risk & Value Assessment • Update your Staffing Profile • Log a Scope Change • Log a Risk • Log an Issue • RFPs are in this phase • Fit-Gaps are in this phase • You must have a committed plan and resources to leave this phase • You must have signed contracts, requisitions, etc. to leave this phase • You must have agreement on how the project will be paid for • When you leave this phase, you are accountable for cost and budget • In most cases the planning phase is not a project Initiation +/- 50% Milestone Plan Business Case/CBA Risk/Value Assessment Updated Portfolio-Scorecard Planning +/- 10% Milestone Plan Updated Business Case/CBA Updated Risk/Value Assessment Updated Portfolio-Scorecard Execution Monthly Status Updated Portfolio-Scorecard Close Captured Metrics Updated Business Case/CBA Updated Milestone Plan Updated Portfolio-Scorecard The project in the Planning Phase is planned to a +/- 10% detailed estimate. Resources are planning, estimating, analyzing, assessing, documenting.
Planning Phase • BA is meeting with the customer to get detailed requirements. • Technical team reviews requirements to complete Design Documents and plan the development/implementation approach. • PM is getting estimates for work, holding meetings, updating team on status, approving Time & Billing, etc.
Why do projects fail? • Lack of clarity on what’s really needed • Problems avoided, covered up or minimized • Inadequate planning (the devil is in the details) • Ineffective process to deal with changes or problems • Lack of willingness or discipline to monitor progress • Unresolved conflicts • Lack of committed, dedicated resources • Lack of Budget Tracking
What is a WBS? • A work breakdown structure is a deliverable-oriented grouping of the work involved in a project that defines the total scope of a project. • A tool that helps make sure everyone knows what needs to be done, who is doing it, when it needs to be done, etc.
Terminology • Decomposition is subdividing project deliverables into smaller pieces. • Work packages is a task at the lowest level of the WBS that the Project Manager is using to monitor and control the project.
Approaches to Developing WBSs • Analogy approach: Review WBSs of similar projects and tailor your project. • Top-down approach: Start with the largest items of the project and break them down. • Bottom-up approach: Start with the specifics and roll them up. • Mind-mapping approach: Write tasks in a non-linear branching format and then create the WBS structure.
Project Management:Planning the Project A WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) planning meeting is held – Several hours to all day sessions Project Manager • Create agenda • Schedule the meeting • Create minutes • Facilitate the meeting • Send out final vision document • Create the WBS in PPM
Let’s Practice! – Plan the Work! • Conduct a WBS Session for the following vision: • Vision: Oklahoma Bigfoot Protection Agency plans to relocate its headquarters in order to improve and expand overall infrastructure and to better serve the Bigfoot population. • 15 Minutes (List tasks to do only)
What needs to be done? Building assessment Create SOW Develop Architectural drawings Install new cabling Install electrical Install key card access Procure equipment Install Phone System Set up work stations
Put Them in Order • Put the post-its in chronological order to the best of your knowledge. • 5 Minutes
Who? How long?How much? • Add to your task sheets: • Who is going to do task? • How many hours will it take? • What is the duration? • What is the difference between time and duration?
Who? How long?How much? Time, the actual labor hours to do the task. Duration, in days to do the task. Predecessor – which task has to be done before this task can be done. Who is going to do it Task Number
Predecessors • Number all the tasks in the bottom left hand corner from 1 to n….. • List the tasks that “Have” to be done before the other can start.
Review • Let’s take a look at one!
Advice for Creating a WBS • A unit of work should appear in only one place in the WBS. • The work content of a WBS item is the sum of the WBS items below it. • Project team members should be involved in developing the WBS to ensure consistency and buy-in.
Estimation is not 100% accurate.All estimates are probabilities.
Estimate vs. Guess • Estimate: An estimate is an informed assessment of an uncertain event. Informed means you have an identified basis for the estimate. • Guess: A special kind of estimate, one where we do not have enough information to make an informed assessment.
In order to estimate costs, you must first have: Defined Scope • Lets assume you are being asked to estimate how much effort is likely to be required to paint your bedroom. You might like to know the answers to the following questions: • Do you have to paint the ceiling and the woodwork, or just the walls? • Are there windows to be painted? • Is there furniture in the room? Can it be moved? If it can be moved, is moving it back part of “painting the room?” • Is choosing the color part of this activity? What about going to the store to buy the paint? • How many coats are needed? Is there any special finishing involved? • Will anyone be helping you? Or will you be doing all of the work yourself?
How do you estimate? • Expert Judgment – uses SMEs to calculate costs of the project. • Comparative Estimation – compare estimates from different bidders or people to provide a cost estimate. • Analogous – uses history from similar projects. • Three Point Estimating – this approach uses the weighted average of three estimates, best case, most likely case and worst case.
Expert Judgment • This is the most common way people get an estimate. • Talk to the men and women with the best hands on experience and understanding of the project requirements. • Just make sure everyone has the same understanding of what needs to be delivered. • Try to find experts who will actually be working the project.
Comparative Estimation • Use current or past projects that are similar for estimating for current project costs.
Analogous Estimating • Use actual costs from similar completed projects • Used most frequently during the planning process, when there is a limited amount of detailed information about the project. • Less costly that other estimating techniques • Less accurate +/-50%
Three Point Estimates • Ask resources to provide 3 estimates • Most likely • Optimistic • Pessimistic • (Pessimistic + Most Likely + Optimistic)/3
Getting Three Point Estimates in Reality • Make sure you and the team member have a common understanding of estimate and result. • Review the work to be done, ensure everyone has a common understanding of the work to be completed. • If there are unknowns, determine how to handle them-make assumptions, go get answers, etc. • Ask ”how much of your time do think this work will likely take?” – most likely estimate. • Ask “If everything goes well and you get very lucky with this activity, how much of your effort do you think this activity will take?” – optimistic estimate. • Ask “If you run into issues, how much of your effort do you think this activity will take?” - pessimistic estimate.
Hard Conversations • This can be a hard conversation with a given individual if they are not used to providing estimates. It takes most people 3-5 iterations to get comfortable with the process. • Feel free to challenge their estimate, but do so constructively by asking clarifying questions.
What if no one on the team has experiencing with this kind of work? • Use a wider range estimate to reflect the greater uncertainty. • Verify your completion criteria. If the completion criteria are not clearly defined, try redefining them until they are. • Break the work down into smaller units. Often you will find that you do have experience with much of the work. The aspects that you don’t have experience with can be handled with wider range estimates. • Develop some experience. It may be possible to have one or two team members do a couple practice activities as part of the planning process.
We really have no idea of what’s required or we don’t know enough at this point to define the work. • Neither of these two complaints are estimating issues; they are both either scoping issues or risk management issues.
Refining Estimates • Reasons for Adjusting Estimates • Normal conditions do not apply. • Things go wrong on a project. • Changes in project scope and plans. • Adjusting Estimates • Time and cost estimates of specific activities are adjusted as the risks, resources and situation particulars become more clearly defined. • If the estimates or timeline change, then a scope or risk should be documented in the PPM Tool to detail why. • This is used for lessons learned and making our estimates better next time.
Re-estimation is considered hectic by most organizations so we overestimate by buffering
Competition, pressure from boss, peer pressure, optimism bias, etc. lead us to under estimate Underestimating will make them fearful; increasing their rate of work. The empire will soon be mine.
More bugs Bad team health
Always compare your actuals to your estimates or you will never become a better estimator. • Wisdom = Experience + Reflection --Aristotle
Better Estimates lead to: • Better planning • Lower costs • Greater chance of project success Why bother making estimates at all?
Other factors influencing estimates • Unstable requirements • Forgetting to include the following while estimating: • Code review • Build, installing • More meetings • Testing • Documentation • Training • Sick leave • PM functions (status reports, contract management, etc.)
Reserve Analysis • “Known, unknown” • Used to plan for risk events • Part of project budget, but not used to compensate poor planning • Example: resource availability • Authorized by PM and Business Senior Management • Contingency Reserve
Converting Estimates to Budgets • Develop estimates (low, likely, high) for each detail item in your plan. • Calculate the estimated value for each one by summing the three numbers and dividing by three. • Total the expected values and multiply by the respective rate. This is your base budget for hourly work. (This does not include any reserves or contingencies.) • Add any other cost categories.
Example Business analyst = (20+50)*$85 = $5,950.00 Developer = (37+33+47+82)*$90 = $17,910.00
Forecasting Support Costs • Support labor costs are usually estimated at 20% of the project hours multiplied by the support rate (currently $80/hr). This is a guideline, not a hard and fast rule. • You also have to think about what is going to be needed to continue the service: servers, computers, network access, software, etc. This is where the Account Executives will help you out with costs for these.
Update your CBA with your new estimates • This would be considered your 10% CBA. • http://eclipse.omes.ok.gov/ISD/guidances/reusableassets/resources/CBA-PMO_Video.wmv
