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Alliance Behavior

Alliance Behavior. PLSC 370 Lecture 3. Why does anarchy cause problems?. Fearon points out that states should never go to war ( ex-post inefficient) Then why do states fight? Indivisible issues (anarchy is not the cause) Private information Disagreement over the outcome (power or resolve)

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Alliance Behavior

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  1. Alliance Behavior PLSC 370 Lecture 3

  2. Why does anarchy cause problems? • Fearon points out that states should never go to war (ex-post inefficient) • Then why do states fight? • Indivisible issues (anarchy is not the cause) • Private information • Disagreement over the outcome (power or resolve) • Commitment problems

  3. Alliances • Piranha are cool! … and sensible! • What explains state behavior as far as balancing goes? • Chain ganging vs. Buck Passing • Balancing vs. Bandwagoning

  4. Chain Ganging • Tripolar system: • G1(a50, b50); G2 (c75, d25); G3 (e95, f5) • If f gets involved in a war, what will e likely do? • Even if f is a reckless liability, e will defend him to maintain the balance of power • Does the US have any allies like this?

  5. Buck Passing • Tripolar system: • G1(a50, b50); G2 (c75, d25); G3 (e95, f5) • Free riding • If b and c are headed toward conflict, d may try to sit out and see what happens

  6. Chain Ganging vs. Buck Passing • Chain Ganging: getting drawn into a conflict by an ally • Buck Passing: refusing to take action, hoping that another state will step in and take the costs of doing so • Most important in multi-polar systems • CG and BP are opposite behaviors, so how can the same IV (multi-polarity) predict either/or?

  7. Christensen and Snyder • The variation is CG and BP is explained by variation in whether the military advantage favors offense or defense • When defense has the advantage we should see BP • When offense has the advantage we should see CG • Tripolar system: • G1(a50, b50); G2 (c75, d25); G3 (e95, f5)

  8. Evidence • Christensen and Snyder look to the two world wars: • WWI • WWII • WWI = defensive advantage → CG • WWII = offensive advantage → BP • Exactly wrong! Why? • Reality doesn’t matter. Perceptions do!

  9. Balancing vs. Bandwagoning • What do states balance against? • Power • Threat • What implications does Walt’s (notice there is no “z”) article have for US foreign policy?

  10. Some discussion • Is anarchy really what states make of it? • Is Mearsheimer’s view of Europe in “Back to the Future” accurate?

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