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Crop Compare - 2011

Find out which crops to grow in 2011 based on rotation, price and market outlook, marketing issues, machinery needs, profitability, risk, and return over variable costs. Use the Crop Compare tool to calculate the cash price needed for other crops to yield the same return over variable costs as the base crop.

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Crop Compare - 2011

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  1. Crop Compare - 2011 Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialist January 2011

  2. Which Crops to Grow in 2011? • Rotation • Price and market outlook • Marketing issues • Machinery needs • Profitability • Risk • Return over variable costs

  3. Cost of Production Index 1990 - 92 = 100

  4. Change in Selected Input Prices • Seed unchanged to up 30% • Fertilizer up 40-75% • Chemicals flat (on average) • Fuel up 20% • Repairs up 5% • Crop insurance up 25-75% • Rent up

  5. North Central Fuel Prices

  6. Fertilizer Prices

  7. Crop Insurance Base Prices

  8. RA Crop Insurance Projected Harvest Prices

  9. Coverage for Specialty Typesof Soybeans for 2011

  10. Coverage for Specialty Typesof Barley for 2010

  11. Crop Insurance Safety Net

  12. Direct Costs Per Acre – Northeast

  13. Direct Costs Per Acre – North Central

  14. Forecast Price

  15. Forecast Market Income – Northeast

  16. Forecast Market Income – North Central

  17. Expected Return Over Direct Costs – Northeast

  18. Expected Return Over Direct Costs – North Central

  19. Return to Labor & Management – Northeast

  20. Return to Labor & Management – North Central

  21. Crop Compare (an Excel spreadsheet) available to download at:http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement

  22. Objective • The objective of “crop compare” is to calculate the cash price needed for other crops to yield the same return over variable costs as the base crop

  23. User Input • All yields • All variable costs • Futures price and basis for base crop

  24. Shortcoming of Crop Compare • Fixed costs are not included • Machinery ownership • Owner/operator labor • Differences in management and risk are not included

  25. Adjustments for Fixed Costs: • Machinery • Storage • Labor • Management • Risk

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