Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Biofuels for Transportation

1. Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Biofuels for Transportation CEEH Workshop February 6, 2008 Steen Solvang Jensen Department of Atmospheric Environment National Environmental Research Institute University of Aarhus, Denmark ssj@dmu.dk

2. About the project • The project is funded by the Strategic Research Council, Program Committee for Energy and Environment in Denmark • The budget for the project is 15 million DKK (3 million US$) for the period 2007 to 2010. • 7 institutes participate in the project: • National Environmental Research Institute (Department of Policy Analysis), University of Aarhus • National Environmental Research Institute (Department of Atmospheric Environment), University of Aarhus • Risø National Laboratory (Department of System Analysis), Technical University of Denmark • Danish Transport Research Institute, Technical University of Denmark • Danish Technological Institute (Renewable Energy and Transport) • Department of Chemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark • Institute of Public Health, University of Copenhagen

3. Background • Use of biofuels for transport in political focus due to: • reduce climate change emissions • enhance energy supply security • For the European Union • EU Biofuel Directive has target of 5.75% by 2010 for the biofuel share of transport fuels • EC has proposed a target of 10 % by 2020 • EC has proposed • at least 20 % of the total energy use in EU in 2020 should be renewable energy • a reduction in the energy consumption of 20 % • a reduction in the GHG emissions of 20 % • important to carry out detailed analyses of the nation- and EU-wide implications in terms of changes in emissions, land-use and other environmental effects.

4. Objectives • To carry out a multi-disciplinary integrated impact assessment of introducing biofuels in Denmark, by covering both application and resource sides, and addressing a broad range of impacts, i.e. • emission and air quality changes • health aspects • resource and land-use changes • economic and sociological aspects. • To compare impacts of using • biofuels against using conventional fossil fuels in the transport sector. • biofuels in the transport sector against using biofuels in other sectors (combined heat and power).

5. Project coordinator Pia Frederiksen Advisory Board Charles Nielsen (Dong Energy) Jørgen E. Olesen (Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences) Bo R. Larsen (European Commission) Michael M. Jensen (Danish Petroleum Industry Association) Peder Jensen (European Environment Agency) Dorte Kubel (Environmental Protection Agency) Steering committee Kathrine H. Madsen (Danish Agricultural Advisory Service) Jytte Illerup, Finn Palmgren Jensen, Steen Peter Trier (Danish Energy Authority) Solvang Jensen, Henrik Gudmundsson, Flemming Møller, Pia Frederiksen, Peter Arndt Jensen Emission measurements Environment and health Scenarios Welfare economic Emission projections and modelling Land Use change Steen Solvang Jensen Henrik analyses Sociological aspects Morten Winther Finn Palmgren Jensen Pia Frederiksen (Chair) Gudmundsson Flemming Møller Mette Jensen (Chair) (Chair) (Chair) (Chair) Steffen Loft (Chair) (Chair) Anne Holst Andersen Jytte Illerup Peter Arndt Jensen Steen Gyldenkærne Kaj Jørgensen Monica Campos Frank Elefsen Project organisation

6. WP IScenarios in a renewable energy system Result Three different scenarios to 2030 for two biofuels (ethanol and diesel). These scenarios form the basis for all the other WPs. Content • A baseline scenario based on national energy projections, and EC policies and resource assessments. • The baseline scenario but with increasing use of biofuels from 2010 to 2030. • An impact-adopted scenario in which the use of biofuels is adopted to given environmental limits.

7. WP II Emission inventory and projections Result Quantification and comparison of the ‘Well to wheel’ (WTW) emissions from the scenarios described in WP I. Content • WTW emission estimates for • greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) • air pollutants SO2, NOx, NMVOC (including PAHs and carbonyls) • PM (particle number, size distribution and chemical composition). • Projection of national emissions by means of forecast emission models for stationary combustion and mobile sources. • Geographic distribution of emissions

8. WP III + IV Emission measurements Result Measurements of exhaust emissions from biofueled diesel engines and assessment of emission factors. Content • Selection of engines • Modern diesel engine with low NOx emission and particle filter (Peugeot 1,6 HDI) • Modern diesel engine with low particle emission and with NOx catalyst (Peugeot 1,6 HDI) • Older diesel engine (Golf 1.8, EURO II) • Selection of fuels • Normal diesel and 20% added biodiesel • Emission measurements on engines on a test rig. • CO2, NO/NOx, HC og CO • PM for analysis of organics • PM size distribution • Literature studies • Development of models for particle formation and combustion in engines. Simulations will be compared with experimental results (PhD study).

9. WP V Environmental and health impact assessment Result Description of impacts of using biofuels with focus on: • air quality and deposition • human exposure and public health Content • Environmental impact assessment • In vitro toxicological assessment • Health impact assessment

10. Environmental impact assessment • air pollution impact assessment of the baseline and various biofuel scenarios at different geographic scales (regional to local) based on air quality modelling • impacts covered are: • air quality (e.g. PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2) • human exposure (combining air pollution data with population data) • deposition to the environment (e.g. N, S, AOT40, nitrate, sulphate) • results related to: • WHO and EU air quality limit values • critical loads for various natural environments

11. Street concentrations by OSPM Urban background concentrations by UBM Regional background concentrations by DEHM Linked modelling approach

12. Northern Hemisphere Europe Denmark Brandt et al. Regional background levels • Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model - (DEHM) • a nested transport-chemistry model for the Northern Hemisphere • 150x150 km2 resolution over NH, 50x50 km2 resolution over Europe and 16.67x16.67 km2 resolution over Denmark • emissions from GEIA, EDGAR, GENEMIS, EMEP (50x50 km2) • meteorological data from MM5 or Eta by THOR system (150, 50 and 16.67 km2 from MM5, 39 km2 from Eta) • hourly time-series of e.g. NOx, NO2, nitrate, N-deposition, SO2, sulphate, S-deposition, O3, CO and secondary particles incl. PM2.5, PM10

13. Urban background levels • Urban Background Model (UBM) • area source plume model • simple photo-chemistry • interaction with regional background • hourly time-series of NOx, NO2, O3, CO, benzene and particles • Emissions • 1x1 km2 emission grids for area sources • Meteorology • meteorological data from Eta by THOR system (modelled) or from synoptic and radio-soundings (measured) Example of UBM calculations for NO2for the Greater Copenhagen Area Berkowicz, R. (2000)

14. Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) • OSPM is a street air pollution model • output • calculates one hour time-series of CO, benzene, NO2, O3 and particles (particle numbers, PM2.5, PM10) • input • meteorology (hourly) • background conc. (hourly) • traffic (hourly) • emission factors • COPERT • NERI emission factors • Street configuration data NO + O3 NO2 NO2 + hv O3 + NO (Berkowicz et al. 1997;2000)

15. Digital maps • - buildings • roads • addresses # # N # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Building height(gutter-terrainor BBR) Traffic Population (CPR) Addresses National and local databases AirGIS - system for exposure assessment AirGIS uses AQ models, digital maps, registers and GIS to estimateAQ and exposure at address level or for routes (Jensen et al. 2001)

16. Air quality at street level • AIRGIS makes it possible to model air quality at large number of streets in an operational way • Street configuration data is generated for the OSPM model by a GIS program Example from Copenhagen: About 80 exceedances of NO2 limit value out of 138 streets in 2010

17. Steffen Loft Dept. of Occupational and Environmental Health University of Copenhagen Denmark Health assessment • Toxicological assessment in vitro • assess particulate emissions sampled in WP III with respect to mechanisms and outcome in cell cultures, representing the lung and cardiovascular system • compare with existing database on different particles (diesel exhaust, wood smoke and inert carbon black particles) • Health impact assessment • estimation of dose-response relationships related to biofuels will be provided • health impact assessment based on the above hazard data and literature survey

18. Toxicological work • Particulate emissions from WP III tested in cell lines and compared with database including particles from diesel emission, streets, wood smoke etc. • Cell lines • A549 lung cells • THP-1 monocytes (white blood cells) • HUVEC (or similar) vascular endothelium cells • End points related to cancer, lung disease and cardiovascular disease • - LDH release (unspecific cell damage/death) • Reactive oxygen species formation (oxidative stress) • DNA damage – pure DNA and cells (oxidative stress and cancer) • inflammation (all diseases) • adhesion molecule expression (cardiovascular disease) • vascular function (atheroslerosis) • Establishment of dose-response • Part of PhD Study

19. Health Impact Assessment • Dose-response functions: • based on toxicology work of the project • discussion of existing dose-response functions from: • CAFE (Clean Air For Europe) (EU and also WHO) • ExternE (economic model of the EU Commission) • Health impact assessment • will be based on the dose-response functions and the exposure assessment for the different biofuel scenarios • particles dominants health impact assessment

20. Potential health end-points • Long-term effects (cases per year) • years lost • mortality (premature death) • childhood mortality • new incidences of chronic bronchitis • death due to lung cancer • Short-term effects (cases per year) • hospital admissions (heart decease, stroke, air ways symptoms, asthma) • days with lower respiratory symptoms, use of asthma medicine, asthma attacks • chronic coughing • restricted activity days

21. Key health effect literature • ExternE • European Commission (2005): ExternE Externalities of Energy. Methodology 2005 Update. • Danish EVA-system: Andersen, M.S., Frohn, L.M., Jensen, S.S., Nielsen, J.S., Sørensen, P.B., Hertel, O., Brandt, J., Christensen, J. (2004): Health Effect of Air Pollution – Social Unit Costs). NERI Technical Report No. 507, 2004 p. 88. • CAFE and WHO • Systematic review of health effects of air pollution in Europe (WHO, June 2004) • Health aspects of air pollution with particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide. Report on a WHO working group. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2003 (document EUR/03/5042688) (http://www.euro.who.int/document/e79097.pdf, accessed 13 May 2004). • Meta-analysis of time-series studies and panel studies of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3). Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2004 (document EUR/04/5042688) (http://www.euro.who.int/document/E82792.pdf, accessed13 May 2004). • Health aspects of air pollution – answers to follow-up questions from CAFE. Report on a WHO working group. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2004 (document EUR/04/5046026) (http://www.euro.who.int/document/E82790.pdf, accessed 13 May 2004). • The effects of air pollution on children’s health and development: a review of the evidence. Report on a WHO working group. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2004. • The six city study: • Dockery, D.W.; Pope, C.A., III; Xu, X.; Spengler, J.D.; Ware, J.H.; Fay, M.E.; Ferris, B.G.; Speizer, F.A. An Association between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six U.S. Cities; N. Engl. J. Med. 1993, 329, 1753-1759. • American Cancer Society study (151 U.S. cities) • Pope, C.A., III; Thun, M.J.; Namboodiri, M.M.; Dockery, D.W.; Evans, J.S.; Speizer, F.E.; Heath, J.C.W. Particulate Air Pollution as a Predictor of Mortality in a Prospective Study of U.S. Adults; Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care. Med. 1995, 151, 669-674. • The Adventist Health Study of Smog in US • Abbey, D.E.; Nishino, N.; McDonnell, W.F.; Burchette, R.J.; Knusten, S.F.; Beeson, W.L.; Yang, J.X. Long-Term Inhalable Particles and Other Air Pollutants Related to Mortality in Nonsmokers; Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 1999, 159, 373-382. • Dutch cohort study • Hoek, G., Brunekreef, B., Goldbohm, S., Fischer, P., van den Brandt, P.A. (2002): Association between mortality and indicators of traffic-related air pollution in the Netherlands: a cohort study. Lancet 2002; 360: 1203–09.

22. Supplementary slides

23. Project plan • Eight different work packages (WP) covering: • scenario development • emission measurements and modelling • air quality and exposure modelling • land-use modelling • socioeconomic and sociological analyses

24. WP V Environmental and health impact assessment Result Description of impacts of using biofuels with focus on air quality, deposition, human exposure and public health. Content • Estimate • air quality by means of air quality models • dose-response relationships related to biofuels • In vitro toxicological assessment of PM exposure with respect to • inflammation • oxidative stress (PhD study).

25. WP VIProduction of biomass, its spatial distribution and its impact on the environment Result Estimation of potentially available biomass resources from agriculture crop production and environmental impacts of land-use change scenarios. Content • Develop models for spatial distribution of non-food crop production. • Assess the effects of the land-use change on nutrition and pesticide emissions, and changes in carbon sequestration potential in biomass and soil. • Develop spatial land-use scenarios which balance the demand for biomass production with environmental, nature and landscape protection (PhD study) Inputs from WPI: Scenarios Output to WP I and VII: Scenarios and welfare economic analyses

26. WP VIIWelfare economic analyses of biofuel production and use Result ‘Well to wheel’ welfare economic analyses of various biofuel scenarios. Content The welfare cost-benefit analyses will include economic evaluation of • costs of production and use of biofuels • environmental and health consequences (positive and negative) • effects on the Danish agricultural landscape • impacts of increased energy security (Post Doc) Inputs from WP V: Environment and health and WP VI: Biomass production

27. WP VIIISociological aspects of scenarios for biofuels in the transport sector Result: Sociological analysis of attitudes among the Danish population to the consequences of the use of biofuels. Content: The study will include in-depth interview with selected respondents as well as a number of focus-group interviews. • ethical and environmental questions • cultural approaches and future perspectives Input from WP I: Scenarios Output to WP I: Scenarios

28. Applications of the project • Contribution to the scientific debate on biofuels in Denmark. • Providing a solid foundation for the national and European policy process, and for decision-making by, among others, the European Environment Agency. • Serving as input to environmental declarations and certification of biofuels.

29. Project approach WP VIII: Sociological aspects WP I: Scenarios WP III: Measurements WP II: Emission calculations WP VI: Biomass production - spatial distribution and environmentalimpact WP: Formation and transformation of pollutants WP V: Environment and health WP VII: Welfare economic analyses