International Conference 50 Years of Education and Awareness Raising

1. International Conference 50 Years of Education and Awareness Raising for Shaping the Future of the Oceans and Coasts 27-30 April, 2010, St.-Petersburg, Russian Federation Development of knowledge bases for decision support at economic entities using environmental information Evgeny Vyazilov Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre of Roshydromet

2. The problems of environmental data using • In most cases Decision makers use information by intuition or on the basis of their own experience. • The knowledge gained by Decision Makers in the course of their activities tends to disappear after a while and cannot be used when identical environmental conditions are experienced again. • Due to the large amount of information Decision Makers can not respond to the continuous changes in the environmental conditions in a timely fashion. • Sometimes information is not properly recorded, sometimes it is not delivered, and often it is not used properly or just ignored. • DM does not always know how and when to use observing, forecasting and climatic information. • There are no legal norms to bring Decision Makers to responsibility for not using information or for not taking measures to prevent damage.

3. Technological problems • Damage caused by emergencies is attributable not so much to the lack of significant technological advancement as to the low level of decision makers’ awareness and inadequate account of the available information • Not all steps of information processing are automated • Potential damage from underestimation of environmental conditions may be significant and therefore the cost of the inadequate use of information may also be high • Attempts to improve consideration of environmental conditions by increasing the amount and range of information can cause even more difficulties for Decision Makers

4. Decision makers need : • Massages with warningabout exceeding maximum values of parameters • Information about probabilityof a natural phenomenon's • Information about probabilityloss • Information about dangerousimpacts • The list recommendations (actions)

5. Components of Decision Support System • Tools for formalization of knowledge • Tools for exploitation of knowledge base • Tools for receiving of aggregated data • Tools for delivery of information to decision makers • Tools for analyze (search of rules for output of impacts and recommendations for different natural situations) • Information system for Decision Makers (dynamic visualization of reports, set of keyaggregated indicators,results of data analysisand tools of access to data detail) • GIS (detail economic objects plans, local mapswith dangerous regions,regionalmaps of analysisand forecasting, global mapsof climate change) • Economic mathematic modelsfor evaluation oflossfrom impactsof environment, expenditureon preventing actions

6. Knowledge base • The main idea of the knowledge basedevelopment are following: If we know anatural situation, than we can definea probabilityimpactsof natural situationon a economic objects, If we knowthe impacts we candefinea list of actions (recommendations)for decree of loss • Knowledge base– this is list of rules, wrote in formalizing type: if …, that …, else … For examples of rules: • Rule 1. If: airtemperaturesmaller -30 С, That: for objectPOPULATIONoutputList impacts: «Probability freezing people», List recommendations: «Schoolboys cancellessons» • Rule 2. If: «Water level for Gornyi University (S.-Petersburg) more 150 sm»,That: for object SHOPS outputList impacts: «Probability overflow of basements in buildings on near river Neva», List recommendations:«Remove a things from basements on other floors»

7. Parameters, which need to use inknowledgebase Objects Ships, Port, etc. Technological process Loading, transition across ocean,ship station, others Main parameters Indicators of environment conditionsand marine activity Adding parameters Type information (observing, analyzing, forecasting, climatic) Geo region Season Priority of impacts and recommendations Impacts, Recommendations Decision makers

8. Classification of impacts and recommendations Goals: Decreasing of loss, increasing of safety populations, etc. Impacts Social -economic Hydro, agro, scientific - technical Physical Technical Chemical Legal Biological Organizing Spacescale : local, regional, global Organizing scale: agency, national, international Economic objects: administrations of city,regions, agency, ministries Type recommendations:informational, restoring, compensating, prohibiting, limiting, rescuing,localizing, protecting, preventing Before beginning phenomenon's-forecasting, climaticdata (preparation in phenomenon)- tactical, strategic actions In time ofphenomenon's – observing data (rescuingactions) Past phenomenon's –restoring actions Many goals One goals

9. General scheme of data receiving for DSS

10. Services for economic objects Workstations, subscribing,software agents ESIMO

11. Municipalitiesorganizations Nongovernment organizations Marine councils Policy Services for administrations ESIMO http://data.oceaninfo.ru Workstations, subscribingsoftware agents

12. Decision supporttools for acquisition and formalization of impactsand recommendations

13. For examples of realization Formalized impacts and recommendations Visualization of coastal stations, where it is dangerousphenomena's Massagewith a real timedatafrom Cliware system (whether on synoptic station, whereparameters are max values)

14. Conclusion • For development of DSS it need: • To identificatea dangerous for economic objects • To createthe on-line tablefor environment conditionsfor regions, indicatorsstatefor different economic objects • To collect the informationfor probability impactsand recommendations • To create theDB of dangerous valuesof parametersfor separate economic objects and technological process • To developa warning system of populationand и tools analysisof situationsfor decision support • To create the economic mathematic modelsfor evaluation oflossfrom impactsof environment, expenditureon preventing actions DSSallow: • To receive the complex information in any time, any place, any region, on any device, to any Decision Makers • To take into account all data and to receive information on impacts and recommendations

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