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Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

Learn about verifying ensemble forecasts, distribution forecasts, ranking histograms, and Bayesian model averaging for better predictions. Explore a daily rainfall forecast for a basin in Bangladesh downscaled from ECMWF 51-member ensemble data.

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Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

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  1. Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

  2. Ensemble Forecasts Types of ensembles • Multiple initial conditions (anonymous members) • Multi-model (tractable members)

  3. Verifying a distribution forecast

  4. Outcomes of probabilistic forecasts

  5. Troubled Rank Histograms

  6. For a Poorman’s ensemble • Common practice is to use the separate forecasts as inputs to a statistical model to forecast the observed value. • Bayesian Model Averaging – historical performance is used to weight model importance on future predictions.

  7. Open Ex4 • Daily rainfall forecast for a basin in Bangladesh. • Downscaled from ECWMF 51 member ensemble. • mm/day

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