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A Post-Processor for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts

A Post-Processor for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts. John Schaake, 1 Robert Hartman, 2 James Brown, 1 D.J. Seo 1 , and Satish Regonda 1 1. NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development 2. NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center Presentation to European Geosciences Union

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A Post-Processor for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts

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  1. A Post-Processor for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts John Schaake,1 Robert Hartman,2James Brown,1 D.J. Seo1, and Satish Regonda1 1. NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development 2. NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center Presentation to European Geosciences Union April 17, 2008 Vienna

  2. Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Ensemble Verification System QPE, QTE, Soil Moisture QPF, QTF Ensemble Pre-Processor Parametric Uncertainty Processor Data Assimilator Hydrology & Water Resources Models Streamflow Ensemble Post-Processor Hydrology & Water Resources Ensemble Product Generator Ensemble Product Post-Processor Fig 1

  3. CNRFC Ensemble Prototype Smith River Mad River Salmon River Van Duzen River American River (11 basins) Navarro River

  4. NFDC1 – March 15 30-day Post-Processor Calibration Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  5. NFDC1 – March 1530-day GFS-Based Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts Ensemble Mean vs Observed Cumulative Rank Histograms

  6. NFDC1 – March 15 ForecastsCumulative Rank Histograms for Different Forecast Products

  7. LAMC1(Lake Mendocino, CA) Russian River Basin

  8. Russian River • Total Area 3465 km2. • Elevation 17m - 1245m. • 2 Flood Control Reservoirs • 3 Local Areas. • 3 Official Flood Forecast Points. • Floods Nearly Every Year. • 3 Major Floods in Past 40 Years.

  9. LAMC1 – Schematic of Possible Post Processor Applications Diversion from Eel Basin Estimated Natural Flow Gaged Outflow COE Estimated Inflow Basin Model Of Natural Flow Post-Processor To Adjust to Observed Inflow Reservoir Operations Model Post-Processor To Adjust to Observed Outflow

  10. Full Natural Flow – March 15 Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  11. Full Natural Flow to Inflow – March 15 Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  12. Climatologies of Measured Inflow and Modeled Natural Flow (December – June)

  13. Full Natural Inflow to Resevoir Outflow - March 15 Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  14. GLDA3(Lake Powell Inflow) EPG Post-Processor Calibration Results

  15. June Calibration – Lake Powell Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  16. July Calibration – Lake Powell Analysis of Historical Model Simulation Results

  17. Some Challenges • Alternative ways to evaluate Post-Processor integral equation to relax bivariate normality assumption that I used to get started? • Can we adjust individual ESP traces (preserving temporal scale-dependent uncertainty) by using a cascade approach to apply multiple window applications of the product-based postprocessor? • Multi-model applications?

  18. Thank You

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