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Jobs and Minnesota’s Future

Jobs and Minnesota’s Future. Tom Stinson, State Economist January, 2011. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End of the Road). Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average Our population growth rate leads the frost belt

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Jobs and Minnesota’s Future

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  1. Jobs and Minnesota’s Future Tom Stinson, State Economist January, 2011

  2. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful(Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End of the Road) • Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average • Our population growth rate leads the frost belt • We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators

  3. Nominal GDP Per Capita Has Grown Faster than the U.S. Average

  4. Minnesota’s Real Per Capita Personal Income Exceeded the US Average by 6 Percent in 2009

  5. Employment in Minnesota Has Grown Faster Than the U.S. Average

  6. Minnesota’s Share of U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Has Increased

  7. Manufacturing Employment in Minnesota Continues to Outpace the U.S. Average

  8. Minnesota’s Current Success Is Due to Decisions Made 50+ Years Ago • Private sector and public sector decisions established the foundation for growth in Minnesota’s economy • Dealing with challenges brought by the baby boom was a key to our success • Wise investments were made • Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

  9. Midway Through This Decade Minnesota’s Economy Was Struggling • Per capita personal income growth (2004-06) • 3.5 percent – Rank 47th • Real per capita gross state product growth • 1.4 percent – Rank 45th • Payroll employment • 1.2 percent – U.S., 1.6 percent • Unemployment Rate at U.S. average

  10. Minnesota Underperformed the U.S. Economy 2004-2006

  11. Minnesota Outperformed the US Economy 2006-08

  12. Minnesota’ s Unemployment Rate Is Again Well Below the US Average

  13. Minnesota Payroll Employment Is Recovering from its 2006 Struggle

  14. Minnesota Employment Is Recovering Faster than the U.S. Average

  15. Minnesota Has Lost Nearly 50,000 Construction Jobs Since 2005

  16. What about the future?

  17. The U.S. Economy Lost 8.4 Million Jobs in the Great Recession

  18. We Are Headed to a New Normal • The Great Recession Is over, but we will not return to where we were • We are moving to a New Normal • Minnesota is not alone—this a global phenomenon • Those who recognize this and adapt first will be most successful • The next four years will be critical to Minnesota’s future

  19. Workforce Development Will Be Crucial to Minnesota’s Economic Future • Number of workers • Quality of workers • New entrants • Incumbent workforce

  20. From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center, rev 2007 Numbers are rounded

  21. Minnesota Saw a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 in 2008 2005 ACS

  22. Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer Mn Proj

  23. Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply Updated to 2009 ACS

  24. For Many Occupations, Replacements Will Outnumber New Job GrowthProjected Openings In Minnesota Occupations 2009-19 DEED projections. Percent of 2009 level

  25. The New 3 R’s for Economic Success • Retention • Recruitment • Retraining

  26. Education Is The Key To ProductivityMinnesota High School Graduation Ratio 2007-08 Mn Dept of Education 5 year graduation rate. Percent of 9th graders who graduate within 5 years

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