Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro: Climate Analysis and Forecasting

1. 15th ICSEED Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro Zagreb, Croatia 6 – 7October 2016 www.meteo.co.meoffice@meteo.co.me +38220655183

2. Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro is formed by Decree on the organization and manner of work of Public Administration, 23 January 2012, by merging two institutions:

3. Mandate of IHMS MNE • Observation and measurement of meteo, hydro, eco and agrometeo parameters • Analysis, processing, archiving of measured and observed parameters • Production of studies, elaborates, analysis and information about climate, condition of the soil, air, surface and ground water and coastal sea • Forecasting and dissemination data (meteo, hydro, eco and agrometeo) • Establish IT system with databases (climate, hydrology, ecology, agrometeorology) • Establish and Maintain of Network Station (meteo, hydro, agrometeo) to monitor weather condition, water, air, soil • Climate Monitor and Assess • Analysis of Extremes through Climate Indexes counting • Production of information, announcements and analysis of meteorological parameters for certain period for electronic and writing media • Control and Assess of surface and ground water quality, precipitation, air, soil on the basis of physico-chemical, biochemical and radiological parameters

4. Membership WMO - full member IHO - full member IPCC - full member EUMETNET- full member ECMWF - cooperating state EUMETSAT-not member yet

5. MAINSTATIONS • ULCINJ • BAR • H.NOVI • PODGORICA • NIKŠIĆ • KOLAŠIN • ŽABLJAK • PLJEVLJA • CETINJE Observations on main stationsare done hourly, and every 10 minutes on automatic station. Datain real time are available on www.meteo.co.me. In Montenegro there are alsoAeronauticalMeteorologicalStations at Tivat and Golubovci

6. Hydrological station network – Master plan of hydrometric measurements 1Rožaje 2 Bać 3D.Vusanje 4 Gusinje 5Plavsko jezero 6 Plav 7Meteh 8 Murino 9Andrijevica - Lim 10 Andrijevica – Zlor. 11Berane 12 Ravna rijeka 13Bijelo Polje 14 Gubavač 15Dobrakovo 16 Crna poljana 17Trebaljevo 18 Mojkovac 19Bistrica 20 Brštanovica 21Timar 22 Bijela 23Šavnik 24 Duži 25Ribnjak 26 Ćirovići 27Pljevlja 29 Zabrđe 28Gradac 30 Biogradsko jezero 31Crno jezero - malo 32 Crno jezero – vel. 1 Plavnica 2 Ckla 3 Brodska njiva 4 Fraskanjel 5 Međuriječje 6 Pernica 7 Zlatica 8 Podgorica - M 9 Podgorica - R 10 Trgaj 11 Gornje polje 12 Nikšić 13 Duklov most 14 Dučice 15 Rošca 16 Danilovgrad 17 Vranjske njive 18 Šasko jezero 19 Nudo

7. Hydrological station network – Current status Dobrakovo, Lim river New automatic station installed in December 2015 Rožaje,Ibar river New automatic station installed in December 2015 AdriaticSeawatershed Black Sea watershed

8. Sector of Air and Water Quality Testing Department of Air Quality Department of Water Quality IHMS Laboratory is accredited according to MEST ISO/IEC 17 025 by the Accreditation Authority of Montenegro, 17 December 2010. This certificate was renewed in 2014 and it is valid until 15 December 2018. Accreditation Authority of Montenegro every year conduct surveillance visit of Laboratory in accordance with the rules of accreditation. Last visit was in June 2016.

9. Modification of IHMS website – Home page

10. Modification of IHMS website – Forecast for 5 days

11. Modification of IHMS website – Meteograms

12. Modification of IHMS website – Hydrology

13. Meetings • South East European Consortium for Operational weather Prediction (SEECOP) • 27 June 2016 in Bar, Montenegro. • Financial support from WMO. • The participants officially established the SEECOP Council (comprising of Members’ Directors) and Coordination Experts Team. • Members nominally adopted the proposed annual and mid-term SEECOP work plans 2016-2021. • The proposal that the NHMS of Belarus becomes a new SEECOP Member was unanimously adopted. • The next meeting will be held in the autumn of 2017 in Belgrade, Serbia. • 43th Session of the IPCC, Nairobi, Kenya, 11-13 April 2016 • RA VI WIGOS Workshop,Belgrade, Serbia, November 2015 • 5th MedCOF, Marrakech, Morocco, November 2015

14. SEECOP webpage For the purposes of SEECOP activities Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology (IHMS) designed webpage. http://seecop.meteo.co.me

15. Completed projects Environment and Climate Regional Accession Network (ECRAN) ECRAN WG4 Climate change adaptation to promote actions in order to be capable of taking the necessary measures to adapt as region most affected by climate change. • Partner states: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey and Iceland • Project leader in Montenegro: Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism Government of Montenegro is dedicated to deal with climate change and dedication has expressed last several years and also trough the document National Strategy on Climate Change until 2030, recently adopted (24/09/2015). In that sense Government of Montenegro has established National Council for Sustainable Development and Climate Change. Also, Montenegro submitted two National Communications on Climate Change and is ready to start with preparation of third National Communication.

16. Completed projects ECRAN WG1 Capacity building on modelling, scenario development, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) • LEAP, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, is a widely-used software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute. • This project is successfully finished. Modeling in the field of climate change started in November 2014 and ended in April 2016. • Beneficiaries of this project are all the countries of the Western Balkans and Turkey. • For the beneficiaries of the project four workshops on modelling were organized Human Dynamics' ECRAN project team (Skoplje, Istanbul, Zagreb, Tirana). • The aim of the regional training seminars on modeling in the field of climate change using a software solution LEAP, provided the exchange of knowledge and experiences between countries in the region and raising the capacity of institutions.

17. Ongoingprojects Climate of the Danube Region - DANUBECLIM • The aim of this project was the spatial and temporal examination the climate of the Danube region using harmonized data and standard methodology. Carrying out the project was based on the data homogenization method MASH (Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization) and the interpolating method MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis) that were developed by Hungarian Meteorological Service. In order to apply these software's two workshops were held for all partner in the project in Bar, Montenegro • At the end of the project the digital grid of the region will be produced, that can be the basis of regional climate change studies and other climatological research.Results will be used by the JRC (Joint Research Center Institute for Environment and Sustainability • Name of partners in the Action: JRC – Joint Research Centre, OMSZ – Hungarian Meteorological Service, RHMSS – Republic Hydro-meteorological Service of Serbia, Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of Srpska, IHMS - Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro • The data rescue activities have begun since the 26th November 2015. • Digitization of the data and their quality control are accomplished. The data for 8 measured variables for 8 main meteorological stations and 38 precipitation stations are prepared together with near border data for exchange. • The total number of records that have been converted into electronic format is 422 670, or expressed as percent of digitized records to the total amount of data used in the project it is 14% for main stations and 22% for precipitation stations. • All data for the project purpose are reviewed and validated.

18. Ongoing projects Cross border joint research and awareness raising action in detecting environmental conditions. Establishing higher safety and protection measures of Maritime domain parts (emphasise on coast) of Croatia and Montenegro – CoRE • Project „CoRE“ is Cross-Border Programme of Croatia and Montenegro under the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA). This project belongs to the Measure 1.1: Joint actions for environment, nature and cultural heritage protection. • Location of the action is Dubrovačko-neretvanska County (Croatia) and Montenegrin coastal area. • Overall objective of this project is to contribute to improvement overall protection and preservation of eastern Adriatic coastline. Specific objectives are: • to establish safety protocols and new hydrographical maps (for waterway safety / habitat preservation researches) based on research and gathered date, concerning natural changes of coastline border in Croatia and Montenegro influenced by erosion from mainland and wave power from open sea • to increase general knowledge of wide groups of stakeholders on Maritime property (maritime demesne) component coast and its sustainable littoralisation . • The project started in January 2016. The estimated duration is 23 months. The total value of the project for both sides is 569.876,39EUR.

19. Ongoing projects • Through this project IHMS recently (end of September) purchased Multibeam Echo Sounder, new advance equipment for hydrographic measurements. • Total price of this equipment which was produced in Norway was 137,250.00 EUR. • MultibeamEcho Sounder offer the hydrographic surveyor the ability to measure and record seabed bathymetry over a wide swath beneath the survey vessel. Multibeam data also provides the surveyor with useful backscatter information which is building sonar mosaics of the seabed. The Multibeam Echo Sounder is now a very useful tool for the environmental surveyor who can use the system for environmental surveys and habitat mapping of the seabed. The IHMS is the only institution in Montenegro who has Multibeam Echo Sounder. This is of great importance for our sector of Hydrography and Oceanography.

20. Ongoing projects Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity at Lakes Prespa, Ohrid and Skadar (CSBL) As signatories to the Convention on Biodiversity and as European Union (EU) candidate countries, Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro are committed to undertaking measures that improve the ecological status of the lakes and protect biodiversity. The legal and strategic framework for these efforts is formed by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), EU nature conservation legislation and the EU Biodiversity Strategy. Implementing these jointly requires close regional cooperation. Monitoring of: Chemical and Physico-Chemical Elements, Biological Elements, Hydromorphological Elements, Surface Water Status and Environmental Objectives Assessment Result achieved: Study of initial-characterization-prespa-ohrid-shkodra-skadar https://www.giz.de/en/downloads/giz2016-en-initial-characterization-prespa-ohrid-shkodra-skadar.pdf IHMS is responsible for monitoring Chemical and Physico-Chemical Elements of Skadar lake

21. Ongoing projects GEF-SCCF West Balkans Drina River Basin Management (WBDRBM) Project • „Strengthening Hydrometeorological Services with equipment WORLD BANK/ GEF-SCCF“ • SCCF was established to support adaptation and technology transfer in all developing country parties to the UNFCCC • Optimization of observing HM network stations in Drina River basin: – to improve the existing meteorological and precipitation stations network, – to provide conditions for the reliable rating curves at hydrological stations, – to rehabilitate, modernize and complete hydrological stations facilities, – to support modernization of the groundwater station monitoring network.

22. Ongoing projects WBIF project: Improvement of Joint Flood Management Actions in the Sava River Basin • Approved in June 2014 by WBIF and WB • Geographical coverage: 5 countries (BA, HR, ME, RS, SI) • „Direct” beneficiary countries: BA, ME, RS (14 institutions) • „Indirect” beneficiary countries : SI, HR (5 institutions) Components: • Flood Risk Management Plan for the Sava River Basin (Component 1) • Flood Forecasting and Warning System for the Sava River Basin (Sava FFWS) (Component 2) IHMS in C2: • Project formally launched on June 21, 2016 (27 months) • Inception phase ongoing Benefits for IHMS: • Exchange real time data meteo and hydro with neighboring country • to develop new hydrological model for the Sava basin, i.e. for the basin parts belonging to direct project beneficiary countries – BA, ME and RS

23. Extreme weather condition November 2015 – October 2016 • November-December 2015– Extreme atmospheric stability in December. Anticyclone and the strong temperature inversion and enormously high concentrations of pollution in Pljevlja (fog during the 8 consecutive days) • January 2016 – A cold wave in Pljevlja and Žabljak, Tmin was -26C and -22C, respectively • 8-13 February 2016 - As a result of heavy rains the water levelof the Morača river in Podgorica within 24 hours increased by 5m! • 16 February 2016 - In Podgorica, Bar and UlcinjTmax reached a record of 27C • 5 March 2016 – Heavy rain. Warning of abundant rainfall and a risk of Flash Flood. Red meteoalarm. 224lit/m2 in Cetinje and 144lit/m2 in Podgorica. In Podgorica was registrated a record (24h) of rainfall for the last 67 years! Snow cover on Žabljak was 41cm! • May 2016 – Most rainest with 269lit/m2 in Podgorica • 12-13 June 2016 - Heavy rain, a record twenty-four-hour levels. Cetinje 242lit / m2 for 24 hours. Ulcinj 163lit/m2 for 24h.

24. Next steps • To improve HM Observation Networks and to reconstruct meteo buildings in north area of MNE • Greateruse of satellite data & products • To strengthen the human capacity of IHMS • To ensure a greater financial support and national budget allocations • Cost for maintenance, cost for education, annual salaries for „voluntary“ observers • To purchase a meteorological radar and ensure all pre-conditions for operational use of it

25. Thank you for your attention!!!