Working to Engineer Infrastructure Resiliency in a Changing Operating Environment

1. Working to Engineer Infrastructure Resiliency in a Changing Operating Environment Bill Wallace President, Wallace Futures Group, LLC

2. Bill Wallace Bio • Lead designer, educator for the Envision™ Sustainable Infrastructure Rating System • Recognized in Engineering News-Record’s Top 25 Newsmakers of 2013 • Author, presenter of ASCE’s new course, “Principles of Sustainable Engineering” • Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable Development • Past-president and member of the Governing Board: Engineers Without Borders–USA and Engineers Without Borders-International • Member of the Board of Directors • GeoEngineers, Inc. • International Society of Sustainability Professionals • Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development • 21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions; Three-year term on the Board of Directors

3. Critical Issues in Sustainable Engineering • Sustainability is the most important and the most poorly understood issue of the 21st century • Sustainability is turning geotechnical engineering upside down • Sustainability is creating opportunities and challenges not seen in generations

4. Where Do You Want To Be On The Sustainable Infrastructure Project Food Chain? Imagery supplied by Clipart.com

5. Sustainable Development Is the Most Important and the Most Poorly Understood Issue of the 21st Century • We are using up resources faster than they can be replaced or replenished; damaging ecosystem services faster than they can be restored • These are resources and services essential for maintaining and improving quality of life • Across regions • Across generations • Mismanagement of these resources and services has consequences What’s the problem?

6. What Are These Resources and Ecosystem Services? Provisioning Services Regulating Services Climate regulation Water purification Stormwater and erosion control Natural hazard regulation Disease and pest regulation • Non-renewables • Petroleum • Minerals and metals • Renewables • Fresh water • Fisheries • Biochemicals • Genetic resources More… More…

7. Society Is Operating As If It Had 1.5 Planets to Work With Number of planets we are using Ecological Footprint Overshoot Global Biocapacity Number of planets available The U.S. is operating as if it had 5 planets to work with Source: Living Planet Report 2012, World Wildlife Fund

8. The Consequences Are Significant and Intensifying… Dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon Oil Release in the Gulf of Mexico Road collapse in Boulder, CO Low Water levels in the Mississippi River Source: Creative Commons

9. …And Are Likely to Get Worse By 2100 Likely Current Kyoto Target Business-as-usual Pre-Industrial Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change

10. We Know What’s Causing These Problems Our approach to economic development is not sustainable Sustainable development is “…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Source: Creative Commons Brundtland Commission Report, 1987 Dr.Gro Harlem Brundtland

11. We’ve Added Sustainability Principles to ASCE’s Cannons of Ethics End State Process Source: ASCE Policy Statement 418 – The Role of the Civil Engineer in Sustainable Development The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) defines sustainability as a set of economic, environmental and social conditions in which all of society has the capacity and opportunity to maintain and improve its quality of life indefinitely, without degrading the quantity, quality or the availability of natural resources and ecosystems Moreover, sustainable development is the process of converting natural resources into products and services that are more profitable, productive, and useful, while maintaining or enhancing the quantity, quality, availability and productivity of the remaining natural resource base and the ecological systems on which they depend.

12. We Just Don’t Know What to do About It • Incomplete answers • What’s the current situation? • What’s the desired end state? • How big is the gap? • Poor response • Be nice to the planet • Practice organizational/project hygiene • Accessorizing for sustainability

13. Some Organizations Are Figuring This Out • Reputation • Demonstrate organizational hygiene and be planet friendly • Opportunity • “Wow! Saving energy saves money!” • Necessity • “Water is getting scarce and expensive!” Drivers for improving sustainable performance

14. But Progress Is Slow • Society (and engineers) struggle to grasp these concepts and their implications • No individuals or groups have provided the necessary leadership to make the change • High resistance to change by owners and operators of existing systems • E.g., Fossil fuelsbased facilities and infrastructure • Taking appropriate action against climate change means that $20 trillion in fixed assets become stranded assets

15. There Are Reasons for the Slow Progress "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it." Upton Sinclair Source: Creative Commons

16. Sustainability is Turning Geotechnical Engineering Upside Down • The consequences of unsustainable behavior are changing environmental conditions • Ways that are significant and not necessarily predictable • Basic engineering design assumptions about future environmental conditions are no longer reliable • Requires a new and more dynamic approach to engineering design

17. We Always Assumed That Environmental Conditions Were Relatively Constant and Predictable…Now They’re Not Scientists are calling it “non-stationarity”

18. “What is past is no longer prologue” At least not for projects in the built environment! “What’s past is prologue” William Shakespeare, The Tempest, Act 2, Scene I U.S. National Archives, Washington, D.C. Source: Creative Commons

19. Conditions of Non-Stationarity In Infrastructure Design Variables Current assumption for average value New average value based on current data Extreme values New Old New variance Change in average value Old variance TODAY “Handbook” assumptions based on empirical data Time

20. Designing for Non-Stationarity

21. Robustness Adaptability Strategies for Addressing Non-Stationarity New Old Range of Operating Conditions Range of Operating Conditions Resiliency Redundancy Range of Functionality New Old Plausible Extreme Event X X Range of Operating Conditions Systems Integration

22. Sustainability Is Creating Opportunities and Challenges Not Seen in Generations • Academia • Build a new body of knowledge • Create new scientific and engineering disciplines • Public and private sector • Truly protect public health, safety and welfare • Save taxpayer/shareholder dollars • Identify for your bosses or clients opportunities and risks they never thought they had • Move from commodity to value-based consulting

23. Requires a Major Transformation in Infrastructure Project Delivery

24. Geotechnical Engineers Have a Distinct Competitive Advantage • Currently operate in an environment that is difficult to characterize • Have methodologies to handle uncertainty • Observational method Karl Terzaghi Ralph Peck Source: Creative Commons

25. Are You Up To the Challenge? • Requires a major transformation in project delivery • Develop and deploy the requisite standards and methodologies • Opportunity to lead the way toward conditions of sustainability • Shift away from delivering commodity services • Create new knowledge, new methodologies • Provide high value

26. Thank you for listening! Imagery supplied by Clipart.com