Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies

1. New START: Treaty Overview Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies The Brookings Institution spifer@brookings.edu

2. Treaty Overview • Treaty • Ten-part protocol • Three technical annexes • Notifications • Inspections • Telemetric information

3. Numerical Limits • 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments • What is deployed system? • 1550 deployed strategic warheads • 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM/ SLBM launchers and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments

4. Launchers • Launcher limits cover • ICBM silos, mobile ICBM TELs, SLBM tubes, heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments • What is a non-deployed launcher? • Test, training systems; launchers without missiles • Limits do not cover converted systems • B-1s, missile tubes on Trident SSGNs

5. Counting Rules • All warheads on ICBMs, SLBMs count • Actual-load counting rule, with provision for on-site inspection • Conventional as well as nuclear • Heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments count as one warhead

6. Treaty Verification • National technical means of verification • Database and notifications • Inspections • Telemetry as transparency measure • Bilateral Consultative Commission

7. Database, Notifications • Extensive data declaration • Update every six months • Each ICBM, SLBM and bomber to have unique identifier • Extensive notification requirements • Cover movements, launches, conversions, eliminations, inspections

8. Inspections • Ten “type one” inspections/yr at ICBM bases, submarine bases and air bases • To confirm data on deployed systems, including number of warheads on ICBMs, SLBMs • Eight “type two” inspections/yr at other sites • To confirm data on non-deployed systems

9. Current U.S. Strategic Forces • 450 Minuteman III ICBM launchers • Also: 100 empty Minuteman/MX silos • 336 Trident SLBM launchers/14 SSBNs • Also: four Trident submarines with 96 launchers converted to SSGNs • 94 heavy bombers (76 B-52H, 18 B-2) • Also: approx 100 B-1 and B-52 bombers in conventional-only role

10. U.S. Post-Treaty Force • Notional strategic force under New START might look like: New START Limits Now7008001550 ICBMs 450 400 400 400 SSBNs/SLBMs 14/336 12/240 14/280 1090 Heavy bombers 94 60 60 60 Note 1: U.S. has room for 60 “non-deployed” systems under the 800 limit Note 2: U.S. plans to equip each SSBN to carry 20 SLBMs (vice 24)

11. Advantages for U.S. Security • Reduces warhead limit by 30% compared to SORT’s upper limit of 2200 • Verification measures => transparency • U.S. will maintain robust deterrent • Enhanced credibility at NPT RevCon • Boost for broader U.S.-Russia relationship • Framework for further reductions

12. Ratification Challenges • Impact on missile defense • Bomber weapon counting rule • Counting conventional warheads • No limits on tactical nuclear weapons • Verification: less telemetry, mobile ICBMs • Rail-mobile ICBMs • Modernization