ATLSS Models for Predicting the Impact of Hydrology on Wildlife Populations in the Everglades Mangrove Zone of Florida B

1. ATLSS Models for Predicting the Impact of Hydrology on Wildlife Populations in the Everglades Mangrove Zone of Florida Bay Jon Cline University of Tennessee

2. Overview • Introduction • Objectives • The Ecology • The Model • On-going Development

3. ATLSS Objectives The ATLSS (Across Trophic Level System Simulation) hierarchy of models is designed to utilize varying levels of detail and data availability to assess the relative impact of alternative hydrological plans on the biotic components of South Florida. ATLSS is being used regularly in the ongoing planning for Everglades restoration (see http://atlss.org/).

4. Snail Kite Radio-telemetry Tracking Tools Wading Birds Individual-Based Models Florida Panther Age/Size Structured Models Alligators Manatees Crocodiles Reptiles and Amphibians Abiotic Conditions Models Linked Cell Models Lower Trophic Level Components Vegetation Process Models Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Spatially-Explicit Species Index Models White-tailed Deer White-tailed Deer Long-legged Wading Birds Short-legged Wading Birds Snail Kite Alligators Disturbance High Resolution Topography ATLSS STRUCTURE Across Trophic Level System Simulation Estuarine Component Dependencies Model Type Freshwater Fish Functional Groups Estuarine Fish Functional Groups High Resolution SICS Hydrology and Salinity High Resolution Freshwater Hydrology © TIEM / University of Tennessee 1999

5. Introduction • ATLSS models of fish and wildlife populations in the mangrove zone • Small estuarine fish (ALFISHES) • Crocodile (currently in devlopment) • Wading birds (planned) • Manatees (planned) • Linking hydrology to population dynamics

6. Objectives • The primary objective of ALFISHES is to predict the impact of hydrology on resident fishes of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida bay. • The ultimate goal of the model is use these predictions of fish biomass to assess the availability of prey base fish to wading birds and crocodiles.

7. The Ecology: The Habitat • The creeks and flats of the Mangrove zone. • Seasonal flooding • Changes in bay level

8. The Ecology: Hypotheses • The resident fish biomass is negatively impacted by saline period due to reduced food availability • The resulting fish community is less robust than the historic one

10. The Model Landscape • Greater Everglades into several sub-regions • The estuarine fish model includes two sub-regions • E. Panhandle ME and • LP Key/STS ME

11. The Model Landscape with SICS Model Area Overlay

12. The Model Landscape

13. The Model Landscape • 500×500 meter cells • Physical factors (per cell) • Water depth • Salinity • microhabitat

14. On-going Development • Develop a single cell version of the model based on hydrology and elevation data collected at four field sites • Extend the HRT model to include the Everglades mangrove ecotone • Incorporate SICS model hydrology data into the landscape fish model