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T he Contemporary Party System

T he Contemporary Party System. October 27, 2011. Evolution of the Nomination Process. Stage 1: King Caucus. Stage 2: Nominating Conventions. Stage 3: Progressive Era Reforms. Stage 4: Post-1968 Reforms. What did we end up with?. 2-step nomination process

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T he Contemporary Party System

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  1. The Contemporary Party System October 27, 2011

  2. Evolution of the Nomination Process

  3. Stage 1: King Caucus

  4. Stage 2: Nominating Conventions

  5. Stage 3: Progressive Era Reforms

  6. Stage 4: Post-1968 Reforms

  7. What did we end up with? • 2-step nomination process • State-level direct primaries and caucuses open to all party members • National conventions with delegates pledged to candidates based on primary/caucus results • 2nd step is basically a formality • National conventions rubberstamp primary/caucus results • “Brokered conventions” are a remote possibility

  8. Unintended Consequences • Good primary election candidates aren’t necessarily good general election candidates • Money and media matter more • “Long primary season” • Frontloading • Bandwagons and Leapfrogging • http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=PRIMARY_HISTORY • State vs. national PO power struggles • Parties come out worse for the wear

  9. Primary vs. General Electorates

  10. Nomination 2008

  11. The Invisible Primary • A.k.a. the money primary • Months (years?) leading up to the first caucuses and primaries • Jonathan Bernstein: “the pre-voting stage of the contest, in which candidates compete for the support of various party actors—campaign professionals, formal party officials, politicians, activists, members of party-aligned interest groups, and the partisan media. Sometimes that competition is out in the open, but a lot of it takes place fairly quietly.”

  12. Who “votes” in the IP? • The media (“the Murdoch primary”) • “Party leaders, aligned groups, and activists” (Cohen et al., The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform, p. 4) • “Power outsiders” in key primary/caucus states • Outsiders to DC, but powerful insiders in their state/local communities

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