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Leasing Industry Results in 2013. Polish Leasing Association Press Conference 22nd Jan. 2014 Konfederacja Lewiatan ul. Zbyszka Cybulskiego 3 Warszawa. List of Polish Leasing Association Members. Akf leasingPolska S.A. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions
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Leasing Industry Results in 2013 Polish Leasing Association Press Conference 22nd Jan. 2014 Konfederacja Lewiatan ul. Zbyszka Cybulskiego 3 Warszawa
List of Polish Leasing Association Members Akf leasingPolska S.A. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions BZ WBK Leasing S.A. Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o. De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A. Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A. DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o. Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. Getin Leasing S.A. Handlowy-Leasing Sp. z o. o. IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o. Masterlease Polska S.A. Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o. mLeasing Sp. z o. o. NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o. Nordea Finance Polska S.A. ORIX Polska S.A. PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o. PKO Leasing S.A. Polski Związek Wynajmu i Leasingu Pojazdów Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A. Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o. SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o. Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o. VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A. VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o. Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
I-IX 13 / X-XII 13 / X- I-XII 13 / I-IX 2012 I-IX 2013 X-XII 2012 X-XII 2013 I-XII 2012 I-XII 2013 I-IX 12 XII 12 I-XII 12 Vehicles 12 239 13 839 4 618 6 882 16 857 20 721 13,1% 49,0% 22,9% light vehicles 6 955 7 706 10,8% 2 727 3 516 28,9% 9 682 11 222 15,9% trucks 4 635 5 505 18,8% 1 728 2 841 64,4% 6 363 8 346 31,2% other vehicles 649 628 -3,3% 163 526 223,2% 812 1 154 42,1% Machines 8 120 8 279 3 012 3 232 11 132 11 510 1,9% 7,3% 3,4% IT 392 396 162 160 554 556 1,0% -1,0% 0,4% Planes, ships, railway 788 507 132 61 920 568 -35,7% -53,6% -38,2% Other movables 218 233 78 80 295 314 7,2% 3,5% 6,2% Movables – total number 21 757 23 253 6,9% 8 000 10 416 30,2% 29 758 33 669 13,1% Real Estate 750 1 095 45,9% 718 536 -25,3% 1 468 1 630 11,1% Financing altogether (loans+leasing) 22 507 24 348 8,2% 8 718 10 952 25,6% 31 226 35 300 13,0% Total number of assets financed by leasing companies • Increase within the purchase of trucks owing to the Euro 6 standards implemented since 1st Jan. 2014. End of recession in the Eurozone deriving from the growth of export is also an asset. • The high growth rate for light vehicles under the influence of increasing number of registrations of new cars (which is related to the renewal of mass leasing contracts for cars with cargo partition in the years 2009-2010) and the uncertainty as to the final solutions for the VAT on the purchase of cars. • Stable machinery sector, in the first half of the year adversely affected by the collapse in the construction sector. In the second half of the year the improvement of the economic situation was significant for the result of the increasing importance of machinery, which encouraged the company to renew the fleet of machines. • Value of assets financed in 2013 far above the record result of 2008, when leasing market amounted toPLN 32.9 billion. • The accelerating from quarter to quarter growth in the value of movable assets financed by leasing companies: • -1.3% YOY for the first quarter , • 5.8% for the second quarter, • 16.0% for the third quarter, • 30.2% for the fourth quarter of 2013. • Rather balanced structure of growth of the entire leasing market,withtrucks as the main engine of growth: from 0.1% YOY in the first quarter to 64.4% in the fourth quarter of 2013.
I-IX 13 / X-XII 13 / X- I-XII 13 / I-IX 2012 I-IX 2013 X-XII 2012 X-XII 2013 I-XII 2012 I-XII 2013 I-IX 12 XII 12 I-XII 12 Vehicles 11 982 13 255 4 429 6 352 16 411 19 607 10,6% 43,4% 19,5% light vehicles 6 908 7 491 8,4% 2 690 3 394 26,2% 9 599 10 886 13,4% trucks 4 437 5 151 16,1% 1 581 2 441 54,4% 6 018 7 592 26,2% other vehicles 637 612 -3,9% 157 517 228,8% 794 1 128 42,2% Machines 5 491 5 513 1 944 2 165 7 435 7 678 0,4% 11,3% 3,3% IT 382 376 149 157 530 533 -1,6% 5,7% 0,5% Planes, ships, railway 781 496 130 56 911 552 -36,4% -57,2% -39,4% Other movables 216 229 69 74 285 304 6,3% 7,7% 6,6% Movables – total number 18 851 19 869 5,4% 6 721 8 804 31,0% 25 572 28 673 12,1% Real Estate 721 1 025 42,3% 587 521 -11,2% 1 307 1 546 18,3% Leasing altogether 19 572 20 894 6,8% 7 308 9 325 27,6% 26 879 30 219 12,4% Assets financed with leasing
I-IX 13 / X-XII 13 / X- I-XII 13 / I-IX 2012 I-IX 2013 X-XII 2012 X-XII 2013 I-XII 2012 I-XII 2013 I-IX 12 XII 12 I-XII 12 Vehicles 258 584 189 530 446 1 114 126,9% 181,1% 149,8% light vehicles 47 214 359,3% 37 122 229,3% 84 336 301,8% trucks 198 354 78,5% 146 399 173,4% 344 754 118,8% other vehicles 13 16 28,0% 6 9 63,1% 18 25 38,8% Machines 2 629 2 765 1 067 1 067 3 697 3 833 5,2% 0,0% 3,7% IT 11 20 13 3 24 23 91,2% -78,3% -1,7% Planes, ships, railway 7 11 2 6 9 16 49,2% 187,1% 78,9% Other movables 2 4 8 6 10 10 116,8% -30,7% -5,5% Movables – total number 2 906 3 385 16,5% 1 279 1 612 26,0% 4 186 4 996 19,4% Real Estate 29 69 135,8% 131 15 -88,7% 160 84 -47,6% Loans altogether 2 936 3 454 17,6% 1 410 1 626 15,3% 4 346 5 080 16,9% Machines financed with loans Other Machines&Devices 6% Medical Equipment 10% Building Equipment 5% Machines for Food Industry 1% Machines for Plastics Production and Metalwork 7% Agricultural Machines 68% Printing Machines 3% Assets financed with loans • Assets financed with loans in 2013 constitute 14.4% of the totalleasing companies production , at 13.9% in 2012. • The growing share of vehicles financed with loan in the structure of the loan (21.9% in 2013 at 10.3% in 2012) and in the total vehicles financing (5.4% at 2.6% for 2012). • Purchase of machinery is still the main type of investment financed through a loan (75.4% share in 2013), but their share fell from 85.1% in 2012. The loan represents 33.3% of the total machinery production. • Lowerthanexpected impact of the end of the2007-2013EU funds financial perspective for agricultural machinery financed by a loan: an increase of 4.1% in 2013, from -1.2% for the fourth quarter.
3 500 60% 3 169 Total number of assets financed in 2013 [PLN mln] Sales change YOY 3 000 50% 2 589 49% 2 542 2 442 2 500 40% 2 199 2 174 27% 26% 2 000 1 819 1 810 30% 24% 1 825 19% 1 496 1 500 20% 22% 1 000 10% 14% 15% 11% 8% 500 0% 0 - 10% Company results in 2013 – New Production in Leasing and Loans • A positive result of market funding in 2013 due to the improvement comprising the majority of companies in the industry. • Out of 30 companies reporting to the Polish Leasing Association only 9 recorded negative growth. • It's different situation than in 2012, when the behavior of the positive dynamics of the market was driven by a very good sales results achieved by the selected companies. Then we had six companies which increased turnover by more than 20% but among the 33 companies reporting data to the Polish Leasing Association 23 recorded negative growth of production. • In 2013 we had 8 companies with the dynamics of the production over 20%, and 14 companies with increases exceeding 10%. • Clearly better results of the top 10 companies on the market – only one with the dynamics of the production below 10%. • We observe lower results of the companies focused on financing construction machinery and, slowly, companies focused on service within the agricultural sector. Good results in 2013 involve companies financing mainly investments of large companies. This particularly applies to companies belonging to bank groups that are the leading players in the banking sector.
7 000 60% Total value of active portfolio change YOY 6 000 50% 4 873 4 934 4 869 5 000 40% 4 167 4 058 4 000 3 415 30% 3 025 3 000 2 669 20% 2 427 2 176 5% 10% 9% 22% 2 000 4% 10% 6% 7% 7% 6% 1 000 0% 1% 0 - 10% Company Results in 2013 – Value of Active Portfolio • The increase in the value of leased assets in 2013 with a positive ratio on the total value of active portfolio of leasing companies. • Rather aligned dynamics YOY for leasing companies, with a similar value of the portfolio for the three leading companies in the market. • The share of real estate in the structure of companies has a significant impact on the total value of the portfolio. • The results of 2013 and the growth of the portfolio to a small extent affected by exchange rate fluctuations. • The positive impact of the collapse in 2009on 2013results of the leasing market.
Business structure of real estate leasing market Business structure of real estate leasing market Getin SGB 1,06% Others EFL 2,1% Millenium Hotels and Recreational 7% 3,23% 0,8% BZ WBK Centres mLeasing 4,1% 27,9% 11% Industrial Buildings BNP Paribas 28% 9,1% Raiffeisen 9,4% Office Facilities PKO Leasing Commercial 29% Pekao 15,0% and Service 13,4% ING Centres 13,9% 25% Leasing Industry Results in 2013 – Real Estate • Value of the property leased in 2013 amounted to PLN 1.63 billion, which constitutes 11.1 % of annual growth. • After a very good first half of the year with the dynamics of 115.2% YOY, in the third and fourth quarter of 2013 real estate leasing recorded negative annual dynamics: respectively -39.0% and -25.3%. • The increase in the number of reported contracts in 2013 of 44.9%: to 271 in relation to 187 reported in 2012. • The lower growth rate of value of financed assets is a derivative of decline in the average value of the transaction to PLN 4.2 million compared to PLN 6.6 million recorded in 2012. • Average transaction value is significantly lower compared to previous years, when in 2004-2009 amounted toPLN 14.8 million. • Market of real estate financed with leasing remains concentrated, however, to smaller extent than in 2012. We estimate that in 2013 56% of new production was performed by four leading companies, at 75 percent. index for 2012 • We can see the polarization of the market towards the companiesoriented on large transactions (mLeasing, Pekao) and the other focused on agreements concerning smaller transactions. For this reason, the share of the top four companies in the quantitative structure of the market in 2013 amounted to 31% at 63% in 2012. • mLeasing remained the market leader, before PKO Lease and ING. • Balanced structure of the leasing market (the dominance of commercial and service centres in 2012).
100% 100% Currency Structure of New Production - real estate 90% 90% Leasing in PLN Currency Structure of New Production - movables 80% 80% 70% 70% Leasing in PLN 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% Leasing in Foreign Currency 20% 20% Leasing in Foreign Currency 10% 10% 0% 0% Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market • In 2013, similarly to previous years, in a new production structure for equipment leasing financing in PLNprevailed. • After a gradual increase in the share of leasing in foreign currency:from 16.0% in 2010 to 26.3% in 2012, last yearthis share stabilized at an average of 26.4%. • In the case of loan financing, the share of foreign-currency financing grew from 11.0% in 2012 to 13.9% in 2013. • Historically real estate leasing was mainly financed in foreign currency. From 2008 the participation of PLN in the financing of this segment has been growing. As a result, in 2011, 56% of transactions in real estate leasing was funded in PLN. • In 2012, this trend was reversed and the share of PLN in financing real estate transactions fell to 36.9%. Last year the trend was continued, with the result that the share of PLN in financing real estate leasing decreased to 33.3%.
100 100% 83,9 bln 90 90% 80 80% 70 70% 60 60% 50 50% 40 40% 30 30% Investment credits granted to companies by banks [PLN bln]] 20 20% Deposits/credits for companies/index 10 10% 0 0% Investment Financing– Leasing vs Investment Credit • The total value of active portfolio at the end of 2013in the • The total value of the active portfolio amounting to PLN 64.5 billion (PLN 56.5 billion for movables and PLN 8.0 billion for real estate) is comparable to the value of the investment in loans granted by banks to companies (PLN 83.9 billion, as at 30.11.2013). Leasing is still the main, next to credit, the external source of financing the investments in the economy. • The value of active portfolio in the past 12 months grew of 4.9%, that is the increase of PLN 3.0 billion. • National Bank of Poland data on the money supply (at 30.11.2013) indicate on the progressive improvement of the lending activity of banks in the area of investments. In the past 12 months, the balance of investment loans in banks increased of 6.2%. Jan 07 May 07 Sept 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sept 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sept 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sept 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sept 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sept 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sept 13
Determinants of GDP and business investment growth The level of GDP is the main determinant of business investment growth. Historical series of revival in Poland: 1) growth of export 2) the growth of industrial production (first in export sector) 3) increase in production on the domestic market due to the revival of domestic demand (including consumption) The recovery on the leasing market 4) growth of business investment and improvement in the labor market in response to the present demand Expected sequence of recovery in Poland, by the visible structural problems of the Eurozone, pointed to a scenario of moderate or rather slow recovery in the Polish economy
Eurozone - the main determinant of economic growth due to the recovery based on exports • Poland still directs more than half of foreign sales to the Eurozone. • The end of economic recession in the Eurozone in the second quarter of 2013, with quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%. • Tedious, but gradual improvement of the economic situation in the Eurozone. The revival focused on industry (because still based on exports ) and low internal demand negatively affects the service sector . • In the end, a good business climate index readings (including PMI), are reflected in November's output growth in the Eurozone by 3.0 % YOY from 4.0% for the economy of Germany. • PMI for the manufacturing sector of the Euro area in December at the highest level since May 2011, mainly due to higher orders and current production. PMI points on the reverse of the negative trends in the labor market. • Much better situation in Germany, our main trading partner (25 % of export plus strong Polish connection with the supply chain of the local industrial sector). • The main risk factor for growth in the Eurozone is strong economic diversification in the two largest economies of the Eurozone . The strong recovery in Germany is accompanied by the deteriorating situation of France.
Foreign Trade - Recovery engine of the Polish economy • The economic recovery in Poland is based on foreign demand, thanks to the good situation of Germany and significant geographical reorientation of sales trends for countries outside the Community. • As a result, this year's export to Germany grow by 4.7 % YOY (at 2.6 % for the Eurozone , with a greater increase for the last few months), to developing countries by 15.5 % and to Central and Eastern Europe by 7.9% . • According to the Central Statistical Office export in the period of Jan.-Nov. 2013 increased by 5.8 % YOY at 0.3 % for import. • November 2013 - the ninth month in 2013 with a trade surplus. • In the coming months we expect moderate surplus in foreign trade. The negative balance might be observed in 2014 , however it will not be as big as in previous years. • Further improvement of the condition of the German economy, the revival in the whole Eurozone , the low share of Polish exportto countries outside the EU (25.1 % for Jan.-Nov. 2013 ), low labor costs and favorable exchange rate make the main drivers of export maintainedin 2014. • The growth in export expected at the level of 9-10 % in 2014. Foreign sales will remain the main driver of the Polish economy.
Gradual improvement of industrial production • The gradual increase in seasonally adjusted industrial production in 2013 : -1.7 % YOY in the first quarter, 0.9 % in the second quarter, 3.5 % in the third quarter, 3.8 % in Oct., 4.4 % in Nov. and 5.2% in Dec • This proves the sustainability of the recovery in the Polish economy. The total increase in production for the entire 2013 years of 2.2 %. • The increasing growth in the industry is mainly based on better results of typically export industries . Export is the main factor in the growth of industrial production in Poland. • Results for December showed more widespread recovery in the industry - growth was recorded in 30 out of 34 departments. That's the best result in the whole 2013 year (24 in November, 26 in October). • Rising industrial production related to the improvement of economic conditions in the industrial sector, which is reflected by PMI . • PMI indicates that in the first quarter of 2014 production will increase by 7% YOY.We expect a similar dynamics in the whole 2014. It stems from greater number of new orders clearly visible in PMI. Average quarterly PMI in the fourth quarter of 2013 equal to 53.6 points is the highest level since the first quarter of 2011. • Importantly, PMI clearly indicates that the companies are not afraid of crisis and perceive the current economic recovery permanent as well as employ new workers in the face of rising production. • Construction came out of the recession as indicated by the positive construction output in December, with -22.9 % for the second quarter of 2013.
Continued gradual improvement on the labor market • The recovery in the industry results in a gradual improvement on the labor market , which is seen in the data on employment in firms employing more than 10 people and in the data on registered unemploymerate. • We observe sustained annual upward trend in the growth of employment in the companies. After last year's drop of employment in May (growth of-1.0% YOY), monthly employment was growing for 7 months in a row. • As a result, the annual growth rate of employment was positive in November. This is the first since August 2012 employment growth YOY, which symbolically cease the crisis on the labor market. Further improvement in December, with the dynamics of 0.3 % YOY. • The increase of employment in companies in the period of seasonal work in agriculture and construction results in a decrease of the unemployment rate in terms of seasonal adjustment . It is observed that an increase in orders in the industrial sector forces companies to gradual increase of the number of workers. • The registered unemployment rate in December 2013 amounted to 13.4 %, which is the same result as in December 2012. Back in February, when we have a seasonal peak of unemployment, the unemployment rate was of 0.9 pp . higher than a year earlier. The monthly increase of the unemployment rate by 0.2 pp. in December, indicating a significant decline in unemployment in seasonally adjusted terms. • The improvement is observed in regularly decreasing annual change in the number of registered unemployed.
Drop of consumption in the Polish economy behind us • The observed positive changes in Polish industry to be permanentmust be supported by domestic demand reconstruction. Consumer spendings in fact constitute 60 % of GDP. Currently we record signs of improvement in domestic demand, which in the future should result in a further acceleration of production. • With low inflation, nominal wage growth in firms is reflected in the increasing dynamics of real wages. Together with increasing employment, it gives a gradual increase in real wages. That is a growing flow of money that goes to households. • Higher income along with improving consumer sentiment reflect into purchase decisions. • It is observed in stronger retail sales increases for the last four months (from 4.2 % in November). These dynamics amounted to 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.3 % in the second quarter of 2013. • Owing to consumers , recovery factors , in addition to net exports , are accompanied by domestic demand. This indicates an acceleration of the process of transition of the Polish economy from a state in which its development is dependent on external demand to the state in which its development is mainly based on domestic demand.
The final readout of the Polish GDP for the third quarter points on higher economic growth in 2013 and 2014 • The macroeconomic data for Oct., Nov. and Dec. show that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will amount to 2.5 % YOY, which will give 1.5 % in the whole 2013. • Structure of GDP for the third quarter showed that the economic recovery already covers many areas at once. Contribution of net export remains significant (because it revives the Eurozone), but the importance of domestic demand is growing. • First of all, private consumption has accelerated (1.0 % YOY in the third quarter) and private investment has begun (0.6% YOY in the third quarter). Both of these areas will ensure the restoration of domestic demand in 2014. • There are three engines in the economy that are observed now: export, private consumption and private investment. Till the second quarter of 2013 , for 5 quarters , the GDP growth was originating from foreign trade. The fourth engine - public investmentwill join in the second half of 2014. • Balanced structure of GDP indicates the sustainability of economic growth.In subsequent quarters it will gradually accelerate We expect growth of 3.1 % throughout 2013.
Companies in better financial condition - in 2014 we expect a continuation of business investment • We observe a gradual increase in expenditures of large and medium-sized companies. They rose in real terms by 5.2% YOY in the third quarter of 2013 after 1.7 % in the second quarter, -1.6 % in the first quarter and-10.0 % YOY in the fourth quarter of 2012. • National Bank of Poland’s survey show a growing concentration of capital investment among companies , which indicates that the recovery of investment does not have a universal character. The value of investment is increasing due to relatively small group of entrepreneurs. Currently, 34.4 % of companies are increasing expenditures; last year the result reached 35.2 %. • The second quarter of 2013 reported the turning point in the company investment. We expect that in 2013 the nominal decline in investment in economy was 1.8%, which resulted from a gradual increase in the businessinvestment , combined with about 15 per cent . decline in public investment. • With the expected 1.0 %increase in real investment in economy in the fourth quarter of 2013, the entire decline in expenditure in 2013 amounted to 0.5%. • In 2014, we expect more widespread revival of investment among companies, because at 2-3 % of consumption growth, SMEsselling goods on the domestic market will start to invest. • We forecast that real investment growth in the economy this year would reach 5.6% , which will result from the acceleration of the launching of the EU funds from a new perspective, fiscal slack after changes in the pension funds and the higher expenditures of companies.
Polish Leasing Association’s action plan for 2014 • Monitoring of works on changes in the law: • Consumer Credit in order to eliminate doubts as to the scope of the Act. • VAT with regards to the right to deduct VAT on company cars. • Bankruptcy and Restructuring Law - comprehensive coverage of the issues within theAct onRestructuring Law. • Environmental Protection Law within the to leasepayments to the (NFEP&WM) and provincial funds. • Traffic Law in terms of publicly available data on the vehicles. • Initiate public consultation on possible changes to the Civil Code in respect of lease. • Continuing discussions with Ministry of Infrastructure and Development and the Ministry of Agriculture on the use of leasing in the new perspective of the EU budget for the years 2014-2020.
Polish Leasing Association’s action plan for 2014 • Organization of celebration of the 20th anniversary of the Polish Leasing Association. • 1,2 million of leased assets in use with a value of PLN 64.5 billion. • PLN 326 billion of financed investment. • Selected activities: • Construction of a new website. • SMEsCondition Report. • Thematic conferences, among others, Leasing in the Civil Code. • Bulletin to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Polish Leasing Association.
Results in 2013 Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (PZWLP)
High resistance of CFM industry in Poland to economic slowdown The growth rate increased in each successive quarter of 2013 The smallest - the first quarter (0 +%) The biggest - the fourth quarter (3.7%) Significantgrowth in the second quarter of the year Nearly 70% of the total annual growth generated in the third and fourth quarter of 2013 Development of environmental activities and services Full service leasing a dominant form of fleet financing and management 2013 in CFM – the most important phenomena and events
2013 in CFM –the most important phenomena and events Growth of industry standards In October 2013 PZWLP set new standards on the market - the publication of the "Return of Delivery VehicleGuide" The long-awaited by the CFMindustry in Poland solution Guide created by the experts of PZWLP, DEKRA Poland and SGS Poland Based on the best global standards and experience Changes in the deduction of VAT on company cars Almost to the end of 2013 the market does not recognize the new shape of the provisions Uncertainty of companies related to the tax regulations in subsequent years (planned derogation)
The largest CFMcompany in Poland now in PZWLP After the third quarter of 2013 there was a change in leadership LeasePlan Fleet Management Poland has the largestfleet (FSL, LS, FM services)in terms of number One of the most prestigious awards on the fleet market in Poland – Awards of PZWLP – weregrantedfor the sixth time 4 awards in the categories related to security, ecology, quality of service within the mechanical and panel&paint services Nearly 100 companies nominated for awards Almost 450 nominations in all six editions of the competition 2013 in CFM – the most important phenomena and events
PZWLP Results in 2013 PZWLP in 2013 – 17 member companies Results provided by all companies PZWLP after 2013 – in total 116.539 vehicles in leasing and management, including: FSL 91.067 (FSL – full service leasing) LS 15.407 (LS – leasing service) FM 10.065 (FM – fleet management) Vehicles in FSL constitute 78% The most popular vehicles in PZWLP fleets in 2013: Ford Focus Skoda Octavia Skoda Fabia Toyota Yaris
PZWLP Results in 2013 More vehicles in PZWLP fleets within a year Total increase of 11% (11.562 vehicles) in relation to Q4 2012 The growth generated mainly by FSL and LS (11.539 vehicles) FM in stagnation – the growth of 23 vehciles over a year The growth of the increase dynamics in Q2 Almost 70% of annual growth in H2 Dynamics of PZWLP fleet growth in 2013 (total number of FSL, LS and FM vehicles)
Slow introduction of cars with ecological engines (hybrid & electrical) to fleets (CFM) Ecological car, however, still constitute a fraction of the whole volume percentage CFM companies offer more ecological services Further development of ecology in fleets – need for legal and fiscal stimulation PZWLP Results in 2013 Type of engine - fleet of PZWLP companies at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013
Leaders of Fleet Industry(members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP) Leaders of long-term rental: • LeasePlan Fleet Management Polska • Masterlease • Arval Polska • Alphabet Polska Fleet Management • Carefleet 22.179 (including FM 3.272) 21.440 (including FM 1.197) 15.987 (including FM 615) 12.115 (including FM 274) 9.105 (including FM 623) + 10,9% YOY + 4,4% YOY - 0,4% YOY + 7,9% YOY + 4,5% YOY
Leaders of Fleet Industry(members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP) Leaders of FSL sector: • LeasePlan Fleet Management Polska • Arval Polska • Masterlease • Alphabet Polska Fleet Management • Carefleet 18.870 15.372 14.047 11.160 8.482 + 18,7% YOY - 1% YOY + 2,2% YOY + 4,9% YOY + 4,1% YOY
Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – total numerical representation by product Based on the results of 18 companies (PZWLP and Masterlease) • Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – in total after Q4 2013: 137.979 vehicles • Growth of 9.9% in relation to Q4 2012 (YOY)
2014 - Forecasts and most important issues for CFM The effects of the instability of tax regulations associated with the deduction of VAT on company cars are difficult to predict Development of ecological services for fleets Increase of the participation of Full Service Lease (FSL) on the market of leased company cars in Poland Business will increasingly rely on full outsourcing of the fleet – within financing, management and administrative&service operation Building awareness of CFM services in the so-called public sector in Poland
change 2013 2014 (P) 2014/2013 Vehicles 20 721 24 139 16,5% Delivery Passenger Cars 11 222 13 299 18,5% Trucks 8 346 9 696 16,2% Other vehicles 1 154 1 144 -0,8% Machines 11 510 12 691 10,3% IT 556 652 17,3% Planes, ships, railway 568 579 1,9% Other movables 314 355 13,2% Movables – total number 33 669 38 416 14,1% Real Estate 1 630 1 897 16,3% Leasing altogether 35 300 40 312 14,2% Positive aspects of 2014: • Continuation ofbusiness investments in 2009-2013 at a minimum required level (low share of firms performing in this period investments in comparison to the level in the years 2004-2008). • Gradual improvement of the economic situation in Poland, which, combined with the already high degree of production capacity, will force companies to rebuild the machine parks. • Expected revival of the construction industry, after the 8.9-percent. decline in 2013. • 2-month window for ‘cargo partition’ in the first quarter of 2014. • Final VAT provisions beneficial for lease of luxury cars. • Progressive and based on the export recovery in the Eurozoneincrease demand for transport services. • The expected continuation of growth in the share of loans in financingfixed assets other than machinery, mainly vehicles. • Higher demand for used trucks after the implementation of Euro 6. • Euro 6 will encourage transport companies to renew their stocks. Total assets financed by leasing companies Negative aspects of 2014: • Significant purchases of vehicles with Euro 5 normfrom the second half of 2013 will reduce the level of purchases of new cars, especially in the first half of the year. • End of 2007-2013perspective with the EU funds.2014 will be a transitionyear, which will result in lower demand for financingagricultural machinery with loan (a decrease of 25%) and financing medical equipment (drop of 15-20%).
change change 2013 2014 (P) 2013 2014 (P) 2014/2013 2014/2013 Vehicles 19 607 22 515 Vehicles 1 114 1 624 14,8% 45,7% Delivery Passenger Cars 10 886 12 755 17,2% Delivery Passenger Cars 336 544 61,9% Trucks 7 592 8 680 14,3% Trucks 754 1 016 34,9% Other vehicles 1 128 1 080 -4,3% Other vehicles 25 64 154,4% Machines 7 678 9 283 Machines 3 833 3 408 20,9% -11,1% IT 533 620 IT 23 33 16,3% 40,2% Planes, ships, railway 552 556 Planes, ships, railway 16 23 0,7% 43,4% Other movables 304 341 Other movables 10 14 12,1% 47,5% Movables – total number 28 673 33 314 16,2% Movables – total number 4 996 5 101 2,1% Real Estate 1 546 1 802 16,5% Real Estate 84 95 12,9% Leasing altogether 30 219 35 116 16,2% Loans altogether 5 080 5 196 2,3% Assets financed with leasing Assets financed with loans
Thank you for your attention ul. Rejtana 17 lok 21, 02-516 Warszawa tel.: (22) 542 41 36 fax: (22) 542 41 37 E-mail: zpl@leasing.org.pl www.leasing.org.pl